October 2006

Radio Mambi, a Miami based radio station, is reporting that according to Venezuelan journalist Patricia Poleo, Army General Raul Castro has ordered Army Corps General Julio Casas Regueiro (First Vice-Minister, MINFAR and head of the military’s business conglomerate GAESA) to withdraw military personnel from Venezuela.

Developing…

UPDATE 20061101 - Here is the article in Spanish published Oct 31st. Poleo states that the order to withdraw Cuban military personnel was emitted last Friday. The reason Raul Castro gave Hugo Chavez for the withdrawal was that the situation in Cuba is delicate at this moment, even though Fidel Castro has made his reappearance. There is a political climate on the island of “liberty and democratic transition,” which for Raul could result dangerous, where government officials may participate and it is necessary to have all capable and trustworthy military personnel who were sent to protect Chavez as a result of the distrust of the Venezuelan National Armed Forces.

Share This

Cuban television has broadcast the first images of President Fidel Castro in more than a month, defiantly addressing rumors that he had died. Mr Castro said his recovery would be long and not without risk, but said he was “coming along just as planned.” He called the rumors “ridiculous” and said: “Let’s see what they say now.” The 80-year-old, who temporarily handed over power to his younger brother in July following intestinal surgery, had not been seen since mid-September. In the new video footage the ailing president was pictured walking unassisted and reading a copy of Saturday’s edition of Granma, the Communist Party daily newspaper. “Now, when our enemies have prematurely declared me moribund or dead, I’m happy to send to our compatriots and friends around the world this short film footage,” he said.

Source: BBC

Share This

Strategy Page offers a brief assessment on the current Cuban state of affairs:

After about three months as acting chief-of-state, Raul Castro seems to be moving well beyond exercising “provisional” authority. He has recently sacked a cabinet member, and quietly been making nice to the United States. Most recently, Raul acceded to a U.S. Weather Service request for over flight during a hurricane. Despite official hostility between the US and Cuba for nearly 50 years, both countries have maintained numerous unofficial ties. For example, the US Coast Guard regularly informs the Cuban Coast Guard if drug smugglers seem to be heading their way, routinely pops into Cuban ports to return shipwrecked fishermen home, and so forth. Fidel allowed this stuff because it was, well, practical to do so. But Raul seems inclined to extend the “courtesies.” Raul appears to have noted surveys conducted by the secret police, which indicate many Cubans are unhappy about the ramshackle economy, and corruption among government officials. Apparently Raul sees an opportunity to ride in, when his brother Fidel dies, as a savior. Raul does not carry all of Fidel’s political baggage, and could get away with a sharp break from his brothers long standing anti-American stand. A large minority of Cubans have benefited from money sent by kin in the U.S., or from working in the growing tourist industry, and are favorably disposed towards the U.S.m despite decades of anti-American propaganda. Most Cubans know that Castro’s “revolution” is a failure, and that there’s a better world out there. Raul wants to lead the way to a better future, before that future puts him in front of a firing squad of angry Cubans.

Comment: For decades, Cuba’s Communist Party (Partido Comunista de Cuba-PCC) has had a special unit charged with gauging public opinion through surveys. These surveys have provided the regime with the pulse of the populace reflecting destabilizing issues that are thwarted before they escalate to instability for the government.

Share This

Ricardo Alarcon, president of the Cuban National Assembly is in Asturias, Spain attending a conference on global development, and said:

“When the moment arrives, the Assembly will elect the future [Cuban] head of state.”

Does this statement infer Raul Castro’s subordination to the National Assembly once Fidel Castro dies?

Read his comments (in Spanish) here.

Share This

La Nueva Cuba is reporting that a wave of rumors (unsubstantiated, nor confirmed) has circulated throughout Cuba about Fidel Castro’s state of health.

Certain troop movements have taken place on Saturday in Havana, with a minor number in the cities of Holguin, Pinar del Río, Santiago de Cuba, Matanzas, Camagüey and Cienfuegos. The majority of military movement reported, does not appear routine.

Rumors of an abrupt visit by Hugo Chávez to Cuba on Sunday, as a result of an unraveling of health by a comatose Fidel Castro have not been confirmed. Information of a health crisis (about two days ago) in which Fidel Castro was admitted to the G Room on the 4th floor of CIMEQ hospital have not been confirmed by other sources.

Full article…

Share This

The Cuban government is hosting a fourth round of exploratory dialogues in search of peace between the Colombian Government and the Army of National Liberation (ELN), have opened in the Hotel Palco in Havana. The first of these rounds began in Cuba in December.

The Colombian Government delegation is led by Dr. Luis Carlos Restrepo, High Commissioner for Peace, and for the ELN, by Commander Antonio García, a member of the Central Command.

At the opening of this meeting a delegation of the Cuban Government and the Party was present. The Venezuelan Government, having been invited by the two sides, was also represented through a delegation headed by Diosdado Cabello, governor of the state of Miranda.

Source: Granma

Share This

Cuba’s main government advisory body recommended the second ministerial cabinet change since Raul Castro assumed the interim presidency almost three months ago from his brother Fidel, who’s recovering from intestinal surgery, EFE said.The Politburo, a government advisory group presided by Raul Castro, recommended the ouster of Carlos Manuel Pazo as transport minister, EFE said, citing a statement in Communist Party’s official newspaper Granma. Jorge Luis Sierra will replace Pazo, EFE said. The move wasn’t reported on Granma’s Web site.

Cuba’s 31-member Council of State approved the appointment, Efe said. Public transportation was one of the Cuban industries that shrank most with the end of subsidies related to the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. Cuba has increased commercial ties with China in recent years to replace its aging vehicle, train and fluvial technologies, EFE said.

On Aug. 31, the Politburo appointed Ramiro Valdez y Menendez, 74, one of the leaders of the 1959 ouster of President Fulgencio Batista, as new communications and computers minister in replacement of Ignacio Gonzalez Plana. Fidel Castro, 80, Cuba’s leader since Jan. 1, 1959, underwent surgery and gave his brother Raul, 75, temporary control of the government on July 31.

Source: Bloomberg; EFE

Jorge Luis Sierra is the new Transportation Minister of Cuba, a change decided due to the importantance of the sector, Cuban government officials announced Friday.

Sierra, member of the Political Bureau of the Cuban Communist Party (PCC), substites Carlos Manuel Pazo. Before his appointment he was in the Secretariat of the political organization,

The decision to replace Pazo was adopted by the Council of State, on a proposal of the PCC Political Board (Poliburo) and attending the importance of the sector, the daily states.

Cuba is currently boosting a plan to revive transportation, and has carried out important investments in this first phase like the purchase of over one thousand Chinese buses, locomotives and other transportation means and parts.

Source: PL

Share This

There are increasing indications that Fidel Castro is not going to return to power. His brother Raul has recently established close ties to nationalist elements in the Cuban Communist Party and in the Armed Forces. He has apparently played on suspicions that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’ wants to inherit Fidel’s mantle as the leader of radicalism in Latin America, and could take actions that would compromise Cuban security and independence.

More worrisome is the potential for civil war in Cuba once Fidel dies. Raul is pushing 80 himself, and lacks his brothers charisma. Raul is a disciplinarian, which may cause problems if he tries to get Cuba to “shape up” after Fidel dies. Unrest in Cuba resonates in the United States, which is only 150 kilometers a way. In Florida, a key state in national elections, the well organized Cuban-American minority is a political force to be reckoned with. And then there is also the problems that would accompany Cuban-Americans getting active involved in post-Fidel politics. Some Cuban-American leaders have made no secret of their eagerness to do this. So trying to figure out what Raul is up to is a pressing issue in the Pentagon, as it is elsewhere in Washington.

Source: Strategy Page

Share This