November 2006

Reuters interviewed Fidel Castro’s niece Mariela Castro Espin (Raul Castro’s daugther) in which she remarks that her uncle was still fragile after emergency surgery in July for intestinal bleeding and must take care of himself.

Castro Espin, 44, said she had no inside knowledge, but thought that illness and age would prevent Castro from coming back as the full-blown leader of Cuba.

“My impression as an ordinary Cuban is that we are going to have him in another role, as the wise 80-year-old leader that now is going to take care of himself,” she said.

[She is far from an ordinary Cuban, she is part of the Castro family elite.]

Castro sent a message to a Tuesday night gala saying his doctors told him he was “not yet ready for such a challenging engagement” but said nothing about whether he might attend later events.

Many observers think he may make a brief appearance at the parade, which marks the 50th anniversary of the start of the revolution that put him in power in 1959.

Castro Espin said her father has assumed power “very relaxed and very intelligently.”

“He has his own style of working, very organized, sharing responsibilities,” she said.

By contrast, she said, “All of us have given the comandante (Fidel Castro) too much responsibility.”

She said Raul Castro was taking care his sick brother not try to do too much by making sure “each person assumes his responsibility without putting it on the comandante.”

“He (Raul) has a lot of confidence in the intelligence of the comandante, not only to direct the revolution, but also to cure himself,” she said.

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Anthony Boadle of Reuters writes about the Castro succession and some key points in his article:

• Government sources say the acting president [Raul Castro] has been very active holding dozens of meetings, strengthening the ruling Communist Party and getting involved in areas of policy that were his brother’s domain, such as the economy.
• His first moves — continuing a drive against corruption that has landed managers of state companies in jail and passing measures for stricter discipline in the work place.
• Analysts say it is unlikely Raul Castro will introduce reforms while his brother is still alive and able to veto them, and while he feels the threat of U.S. destabilization is real.
• Analysts say the parade also will serve as a warning to Cubans, whose loyalty to Raul Castro is not the same as for his brother and could falter if he cannot improve their living standards.

Read the full article here.

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From The Economist:

A state in suspended animation

FOR Cubans, the past four months have been a time of phoney transition. Fidel Castro, their president for the past 47 years, is no longer in charge, but neither has he departed. He has not been seen in the flesh since July 26th, shortly before he underwent surgery for “severe intestinal bleeding”. His condition is a well-guarded state secret.

More may be revealed on December 2nd. As well as a revolutionary anniversary, this is the date on which the government said it would hold postponed celebrations for Mr Castro’s 80th birthday. There are plans for a march of several hundred thousand people and the biggest military parade for a decade.

But will the marchers be saluting Fidel Castro or his younger brother, Raúl, to whom he turned over power in July? American officials have said they believe that Fidel has (probably terminal) cancer. Cuba’s government merely says that he is recovering well. But Felipe Pérez Roque, the foreign minister, recently refused to say whether Mr Castro would be well enough to take part on December 2nd. The latest glimpse of the president, who earlier this year was making weekly hours-long speeches around the country, was a video released on October 28th. It showed a pale, thin and shuffling old man, and came as a shock to many Cubans.

On the surface, little has changed in Cuba. The fleet of 1980s Mercedes cars which used to sweep Fidel Castro to his offices have been replaced by the brand new BMW limousines of his brother’s entourage. A group of European businessmen who visited the island recently were taken to meet Ramiro Valdés, a veteran of the 1959 revolution, hardline former head of state security and recently appointed minister of communications.

Carlos Lage, the de facto prime minister who is seen by outsiders as a liberal, recently denounced privatisation as “undemocratic” and the source of many of the world’s ills. Mr Pérez Roque has said that if Cuba’s state-controlled economy has problems they will be addressed, but only at “the right moment”. Raúl Castro is widely believed to admire China’s economic policies, but he has said nothing on the subject in public. Like everyone else in Havana, he appears to be waiting.

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Santiago de Cuba - The 50th Anniversary of the FAR commemorative medal was bestowed upon a group of officers from the Eastern Army whom have a relevant trajectory in the institution celebrated in a ceremony in the Grand Tank Unit of the historic Mangos de Baraguá.

In the ceremony presided by members of the Politburo, Army Corps General Ramón Espinosa Martín (Chief, Eastern Army) and Misael Enamorado Dáger, First Secretary of the Party in Santiago de Cuba, active and reserve officers were promoted to the next higher rank.

Distinctions were given to 10, 15, and 20 years of service to the Revolutionary Armed Forces to a group of combatants.

Source: Radio Rebelde

Commentary: Is the promotion of these active and reserve officers a form to quell a growing discontent within the ranks of the Eastern Army? Army Corps General Ramón Espinosa Martín is no devotee of Army General Raul Castro and he was appointed Chief of the Eastern Army by Fidel Castro in 1984. What does this say about absolute loyalty to Fidel Castro’s successor and the perception that the armed forces is monolithic?

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Fighter jets zoomed overhead and armed vehicles rolled through the Plaza of the Revolution Monday as Cuba’s military rehearsed for a parade saluting its own founding and the 80th birthday of ailing leader Fidel Castro.

The Dec. 2 military parade will be the first in Havana in a decade and will mark the 50th anniversary of the landing of a yacht that carried Castro and his armed band to Cuba to launch their guerrilla war.

The event will also salute Castro, who asked that celebrations for his 80th birthday on Aug. 13 be delayed after he underwent surgery for sustained intestinal bleeding that prompted him to step aside temporarily in late July. Castro’s brother, 75-year-old Defense Minister Raul Castro, has been acting president since then.

During the Monday rehearsal, uniformed soldiers on foot and horseback practiced their steps across the broad plaza.

Olive-green armored vehicles, rocket launchers and artillery on wheels were transported to the site, as well as a replica of the yacht named Granma, which carried the Castro brothers and other rebels from Mexico, landing on Cuban shores on Dec. 2, 1956. The date is considered the founding of communist Cuba’s Revolutionary Armed Forces.

The revolution that culminated in the ouster of Fulgencio Batista’s government and Castro’s rise to power in 1959.

Military officials at the rehearsal declined to comment on the rehearsal or the upcoming parade.

Raul Castro earlier announced there would also be a military parade on Nov. 30 in the eastern city of Santiago.

There has been no official word on whether Castro will be well enough to attend the parade or a series of events beforehand planned for his birthday.

The nature of Castro’s ailment and surgery has been treated as a state secret and he has not been seen in public since the July 31 announcement of his illness, although officials have occasionally released photographs and videos of him during his recovery.

Alfredo Guevara, who guided Cuba’s renowned cinema program in the early years after Castro rose to power, declined to speculate Monday on whether his longtime friend would show up for the festivities.

But he told reporters at a news conference about an upcoming film festival that he understood that the Cuban leader was completely lucid: “His brain is functioning and functioning well.” The birthday celebrations are being offered by the foundation of late Ecuadorean painter Oswaldo Guayasamin and were originally scheduled around Castro’s actual birthday in August.

Guayasamin, who died in 1999, was a close Castro friend and painted four portraits of the Cuban leader over the years. He joined Castro once every decade to celebrate his birthday.

The birthday celebration, starting on Nov. 28 and running through Dec. 2, will include an art exposition, a concert with leading artists from Cuba, Argentina and South Africa, and an academic conference called “Memory and Future: Cuba and Fidel” led by writers and activists.

Source: AP

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In preparation for the December 2nd parade commemorating the 50th Anniversary of the Cuban Armed Forces (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias - FAR) and Fidel Castro’s 80th birthday (August 12), T-62 tanks were seen in the streets surrounding Revolution Plaza (formerly, Civic Plaza).

There has also been reports that tanks have been seen throughout Cuban cities.

Is the presence of these tanks, although for a parade, a visible warning that the army is prepared for any civil unrest or an internal rebellion, once Fidel Castro dies?

To thwart such a scenario, Fidel Castro has his High Command Reserve (Reserva del Alto Mando - RAM), an elite counterattack force composed of an armored division and all its firepower support units that form a defensive ring around the capital of Havana.

In the event of an internal rebellion attempting to displace the Cuban regime or an invasion by the United States, the battle for the regime’s survivability–acknowledged by the Cuban government and in Washington–will take place in the City of Havana.

There has been very little written about this reserve force, however, it plays an extremely vital role in the defense and protection of the Fidelista regime.

See Armando F. Mastrapa 3d. High Command Reserve (Reserva del Alto Mando - RAM): Cuba’s Elite Counterattack Force. La Nueva Cuba. October 6, 2004.

Source: EFE, Cuban Armed Forces Review, La Nueva Cuba

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The government believes Fidel Castro’s health is deteriorating and that the Cuban dictator is unlikely to live through 2007. That dire view was reinforced last week when Cuba’s foreign minister backed away from his prediction the ailing Castro would return to power by early December. “It’s a subject on which I don’t want to speculate,” Felipe Perez Roque told The Associated Press in Havana.

U.S. government officials say there is still some mystery about Castro’s diagnosis, his treatment and how he is responding. But these officials believe the 80-year-old leader has cancer of the stomach, colon or pancreas.

He was seen weakened and thinner in official state photos released late last month, and it is considered unlikely that he will return to power or survive through the end of next year, said the U.S. government and defense officials. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the politically sensitive topic.

With chemotherapy, Castro may live up to 18 months, said the defense official. Without it, expected survival would drop to three months to eight months.

American officials will not talk publicly about how they glean clues to Castro’s health. But U.S. spy agencies include physicians who study pictures, video, public statements and other information coming out of Cuba.

A planned celebration of Castro’s 80th birthday next month is expected to draw international attention. The Cuban leader had planned to attend the public event, which already had been postponed once from his Aug. 13 birthday.

Source: AP

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