Sunday, November 12, 2006

In preparation for the December 2nd parade commemorating the 50th Anniversary of the Cuban Armed Forces (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias - FAR) and Fidel Castro’s 80th birthday (August 12), T-62 tanks were seen in the streets surrounding Revolution Plaza (formerly, Civic Plaza).

There has also been reports that tanks have been seen throughout Cuban cities.

Is the presence of these tanks, although for a parade, a visible warning that the army is prepared for any civil unrest or an internal rebellion, once Fidel Castro dies?

To thwart such a scenario, Fidel Castro has his High Command Reserve (Reserva del Alto Mando - RAM), an elite counterattack force composed of an armored division and all its firepower support units that form a defensive ring around the capital of Havana.

In the event of an internal rebellion attempting to displace the Cuban regime or an invasion by the United States, the battle for the regime’s survivability–acknowledged by the Cuban government and in Washington–will take place in the City of Havana.

There has been very little written about this reserve force, however, it plays an extremely vital role in the defense and protection of the Fidelista regime.

See Armando F. Mastrapa 3d. High Command Reserve (Reserva del Alto Mando - RAM): Cuba’s Elite Counterattack Force. La Nueva Cuba. October 6, 2004.

Source: EFE, Cuban Armed Forces Review, La Nueva Cuba

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The government believes Fidel Castro’s health is deteriorating and that the Cuban dictator is unlikely to live through 2007. That dire view was reinforced last week when Cuba’s foreign minister backed away from his prediction the ailing Castro would return to power by early December. “It’s a subject on which I don’t want to speculate,” Felipe Perez Roque told The Associated Press in Havana.

U.S. government officials say there is still some mystery about Castro’s diagnosis, his treatment and how he is responding. But these officials believe the 80-year-old leader has cancer of the stomach, colon or pancreas.

He was seen weakened and thinner in official state photos released late last month, and it is considered unlikely that he will return to power or survive through the end of next year, said the U.S. government and defense officials. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the politically sensitive topic.

With chemotherapy, Castro may live up to 18 months, said the defense official. Without it, expected survival would drop to three months to eight months.

American officials will not talk publicly about how they glean clues to Castro’s health. But U.S. spy agencies include physicians who study pictures, video, public statements and other information coming out of Cuba.

A planned celebration of Castro’s 80th birthday next month is expected to draw international attention. The Cuban leader had planned to attend the public event, which already had been postponed once from his Aug. 13 birthday.

Source: AP

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