August 2007

Carlos Lage Davila, Cuban Vice-President and viewed as a possible future president, delivered a speech (click here for full text in Spanish) yesterday at the closing of a national seminar for directors of enterprises, which took place in the FAR (Revolutionary Armed Forces) Universal Hall.

Lage said Cuba would follow a business management system introduced by the armed forces two decades ago to cope with the economic crisis that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union without resorting to private property and markets.

Cuba will not follow the paths of other Communist-run nations, such as China and Vietnam where capitalist markets have flourished, and said Perestroika reforms failed in the former Soviet Union.

Lage also went on to say “We need enterprises working to improve efficiency to be exemplary, in the vanguard of the battle for economic development.”

The system developed by the military is called perfeccionamiento empresarial (enterprise optimization) first implemented by the Union of Military Industries (Unión de las Industrias Militares, UIM). UIM is tasked with modernization and repairs to armaments and implemented enterprise optimization which calls for maximum efficiency and productivity of enterprises.

For an analysis of the Cuban Armed Forces’ involvement in the economy during the Special Period, click here.

[Photo: Granma]

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From the Economist print edition:

In as many weeks, three political prisoners have been freed in Cuba, including the longest-serving of them, Francisco Chaviano, after 13 years in jail. He had been accused in 1994 of revealing state secrets during his research into the lives and deaths of balseros, the people who—especially in the early 1990s—fled from Cuba on makeshift rafts.

Much has changed on the island since Mr Chaviano went inside. The economic depression which prompted the flight of the balseros has eased somewhat. Oil-rich Venezuela under Hugo Chávez has replaced the Soviet Union as the country’s benefactor. And ill health caused Fidel Castro to depart the public stage a year ago, leaving his brother Raúl to run the country. Indeed, for the past fortnight opposition circles in Miami have again been gripped by rumours of Fidel’s death. Although no new images of him have been published since early June, newspaper articles continue to be published under his name and officials insist he continues to convalesce.

Fidel’s view of dissenters was uncomplicated: all were “mercenaries”, in the pay of the United States. And Raúl? Cuban human-rights groups report that in the past year the number of political prisoners held in Cuban jails has fallen by 20%, to around 240. There have also been fewer government-organised protests outside the homes of dissidents.

Raúl Castro is understood to be far more open to the idea of debate than his brother. Visibly irritated by the congratulatory tone of many Communist Party meetings, he has called on Cubans to discuss matters “fearlessly”. Those close to him say he genuinely likes to hear different views and opinions.

But Cuban dissidents are not cheering yet. They say the government is merely being more selective. Many of those released had served all or most of their sentences, and they remain on parole. Still languishing inside various jails are 61 of the 75 dissidents who were arrested in March 2003 during an unprecedented clampdown on political opponents. Many of them helped co-ordinate the Varela project, a grassroots petition calling for a referendum on political freedoms. The project’s organiser, Oswaldo Payá, appealed to Raúl Castro recently to free all political prisoners in Cuba and to allow multi-party elections. The government, said Mr Payá, had punished people enough for holding different political opinions.

But officials prefer to talk about the plight of five Cuban secret agents arrested in Miami in 1998 and serving sentences of 15 years to life in American jails. The government says they are political prisoners since they were sent to defend the island by infiltrating exile terrorist groups, and not to spy on the American government. This month their lawyers filed the latest of several appeals in an Atlanta court.

Whatever Raúl Castro might think of demands to free his government’s own prisoners, he has his hands full trying to bring modest reform to a sclerotic economy. As long as Fidel is alive and hovering in the background, there will be no political change in Cuba.

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From the Christian Science Monitor:

When prominent Cuban human rights advocate Francisco Chaviano was released earlier this month after 13 years in prison, he joined the growing list of political dissidents set free in the year since Fidel Castro, sidelined by poor health, ceded power to his brother Raúl.

The steady fall in Cuba’s political prisoner population since Raúl Castro took the reins of power in July 2006 is leading some Cuba experts to conclude that some kind of new day is dawning on the Caribbean communist island.

Just don’t expect that dawn to break, they add, in anything other than the slow and cautious manner in which the release of political prisoners has been carried out.

[…]

The Havana-based Commission for Human Rights and National Reconciliation, an illegal but tolerated nongovernmental organization, reports a fall of more than 20 percent in the number of political prisoners over a year ago. The total, according to the group, stood at 246 as of June 30, down from 316 in 2006.

The number still represents by far the largest incarceration of prisoners of conscience of any country in the Western Hemisphere and one of the highest per capita rates anywhere in the world – leading some analysts to doubt that anything in Cuba has really changed.

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AP reports:

According to the Italian daily, Corriere della Sera, Raul Castro was in a private visit to Italy a few weeks ago.  He visited the exclusive golf complex in Toscana, northern region of Italy, which could not be confirmed by the Cuban embassy in Italy.

The report said Cuba’s Defense Minister and Interim-President is a golf enthusiast who landed in the heliport of the exclusive Golf Resort de Porto Ercole.

It was also reported that Raul went to Sicily, the birthplace of his son-in-law Paolo, who is married to his daughter Mariela.

Corriere della Sera also revealed Raul’s yearly incognito visits to Italy with Italian relatives and three grandchildren.

Is Raul exploring the possibility of leaving Cuba for Western Europe in the event of Fidel’s death as stated here?

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‘There are but two powers in the world, the sword and the mind. In the long run the sword is always beaten by the mind.’ –Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

Last Friday’s tumult of rumors over Fidel Castro’s death plays right into a grandeur scheme by Havana to maximize its control of information and manipulation of the Cuban populace and that of the exile-community in
Miami.

It is quite evident that the Cuban Government’s immediate fear is the impact Fidel’s death will have on the population, and more importantly, how such a reaction (whether it be muted or violent) will be a threat to continuous regime stability and survivability.

As stated before, a prevalent source of instability is the marginal treatment blacks have endured in Cuban society by the state, which has caused escalating resentment in this racial group.  Their reaction (which could be violent) to Fidel’s death may lead to a social explosion — reverberating throughout Cuban society. 

Another factor is society’s frustration over scarcities ranging from common goods, salaries, transportation and to aliments, may cause a combustible spark which could spiral out of control on Cuban streets. 

The lack of precise action by the Cuban Government to quell these economic problems is leading to a path of internal conflict, which may precipitate an unraveling of control long exercised by the government.

Therefore, the regime has employed psychological operations within its borders and abroad through its intelligence apparatus.

The spreading rumor (in Havana and Miami) is causing a cry wolf syndrome, lulling a sense of disbelief of the actual event of Fidel’s death.

Once the announcement is made, Cuban society will be resigned to a fait accompli and will be of no major consequence or surprise.

The multiple build up of rumors (promulgated for weeks) has served the regime well and with a two-fold purpose:

1. The Cuban Government’s attempt to soften the psychological impact the news of the Maximum Leader’s death will have on the population.
2. The rumor gauges a general reaction of the populace in the streets of Havana and the rest of the country whereby the regime will attempt to anticipate, with measures, the magnitude of such a reaction.

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In the event of Fidel Castro’s death, the Commandante’s High Command Reserve (Reserva del Alto Mando — RAM) would be mobilized to thwart any internal popular unrest as it was during the August 5, 1994 Maleconazo.

Click here to read my report on this elite reserve component of the Revolutionary Army.

“In mid-September [2004], Jane’s Intelligence Digest reported that the Ukraine is exporting military equipment (light infantry weapons coupled with small and medium sized military vehicles) to Cuba and Venezuela, with first shipments scheduled to take place sometime during September and October.

The exportation of military equipment to Cuba has thus generated speculation that Cuba’s armed forces are attempting to modernize their equipment and therefore, the RAM will heavily benefit from such modernization, in which its capability is fortified as the regime’s principle counterattack protection force.”

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Renewed rumors of Fidel Castro’s death have intensified this afternoon.

According to Babalu Blog, emergency services and law enforcement in Miami-Dade County are on alert.

Is this a reaction to rumors or has the Cuban Government communicated to the US Government that in fact Fidel Castro has died?

Caution should be exercised, as the same round of rumors were emitted last Friday.

There are, however, unconfirmed reports that the Cuban National Revolutionary Police has been mobilized in Havana and that troops have secured tourist centers.

Developing…

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Journalist Oscar Haza, who hosts A Mano Limpia — a popular public affairs television program on Miami’s Channel 41 (America Teve) — interviewed last night ex-Brigadier General José Quevedo Pérez (who was the Chief of Logistics for the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces — FAR and defected last year) about the current state of Cuban politics and that of the military.

The general, who inadvertently confirmed while being questioned by Haza of the contacts he has with active Cuban military, asserted that high ranking military officers have made contact with the U.S. Government in the past and present.

For example, he cited a message sent to a US Senator by Major General Raúl Menéndez Tomassevich, who died in 2001 and was commander of Cuban Communist Forces in the War Against the Bandits (Lucha Contra los Bandidos ) as well as leading troops in Angola. Tomassevich said in his message, according to Quevedo Pérez, of his disillusionment in the course of the revolution. He also spoke of the chiefs of the three armies (Central, Eastern and Western) about their allegiances and command.

Quevedo Pérez also made the assertion of the possibility that Raúl Castro might leave Cuba for Spain.

There has been information being circulated over pressures being exerted on Raúl by family members to leave Cuba when Fidel does die.

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