PSYCHOLOGY OF RUMORS

‘There are but two powers in the world, the sword and the mind. In the long run the sword is always beaten by the mind.’ –Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

Last Friday’s tumult of rumors over Fidel Castro’s death plays right into a grandeur scheme by Havana to maximize its control of information and manipulation of the Cuban populace and that of the exile-community in
Miami.

It is quite evident that the Cuban Government’s immediate fear is the impact Fidel’s death will have on the population, and more importantly, how such a reaction (whether it be muted or violent) will be a threat to continuous regime stability and survivability.

As stated before, a prevalent source of instability is the marginal treatment blacks have endured in Cuban society by the state, which has caused escalating resentment in this racial group.  Their reaction (which could be violent) to Fidel’s death may lead to a social explosion — reverberating throughout Cuban society. 

Another factor is society’s frustration over scarcities ranging from common goods, salaries, transportation and to aliments, may cause a combustible spark which could spiral out of control on Cuban streets. 

The lack of precise action by the Cuban Government to quell these economic problems is leading to a path of internal conflict, which may precipitate an unraveling of control long exercised by the government.

Therefore, the regime has employed psychological operations within its borders and abroad through its intelligence apparatus.

The spreading rumor (in Havana and Miami) is causing a cry wolf syndrome, lulling a sense of disbelief of the actual event of Fidel’s death.

Once the announcement is made, Cuban society will be resigned to a fait accompli and will be of no major consequence or surprise.

The multiple build up of rumors (promulgated for weeks) has served the regime well and with a two-fold purpose:

1. The Cuban Government’s attempt to soften the psychological impact the news of the Maximum Leader’s death will have on the population.
2. The rumor gauges a general reaction of the populace in the streets of Havana and the rest of the country whereby the regime will attempt to anticipate, with measures, the magnitude of such a reaction.

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