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The World in 2008: Cuba

Monday, December 31, 2007 in Economy, Fidel Castro, Government, Raul Castro | No comments

The Economist’s assessment of the World for 2008 has been published, and forecasts the following for Cuba:

GDP growth: 5.4%
GDP: $49bn (PPP: $134bn)
Inflation: 4.3%
Population: 11.2m
GDP per head: $4,350 (PPP: $11,970)

The country is changing, but at an evolutionary rather than a revolutionary pace. The coming year will see Fidel Castro (81) move upstairs—either to take on the role of elder statesman or to meet his maker. His brother, Raúl (76), will consolidate his power as acting president, but at the head of a government team rather than as undisputed leader. More open political debate will be tolerated.

To watch: Relations with the United States will rise a degree or two above absolute zero as reforms progress in Cuba and hardline Republicans lose influence in Washington.