Fidel and retirement

Marc Frank of the Financial Times summarizes the current state of Cuba’s “electroral” politics and speculation on Fidel Castro’s future.

In an indication that it is not yet time to count Fidel Castro out of Cuban politics, the increasingly frail 81-year-old leader of the Cuban revolution will contest for a seat in the National Assembly in the parliamentary election this weekend.

The election - in which Cubans vote on candidates who have been selected by the ruling Communist party - kicks off a two-month process that will eventually lead to the selection of a president, vice-president and executive bodies for new five-year terms.

It is expected to clarify the future role of Mr Castro, who temporarily handed over his executive responsibilities to his younger brother Raúl after undergoing abdominal surgery 17 months ago.

Mr Castro, who has undergone at least three major operations and has only been seen in edited videos and pictures since July 2006, needs to win a seat if he is to continue playing a senior role in Cuba’s government. The assembly of 614 parliamentarians chooses a 31-member council of state, as well as a vice-president and president from among its own number.

Mr Castro recently contributed to speculation that he may be preparing to formally abandon posts. In a letter sent to a Cuban television programme at the end of last year, he said that “my primary duty is not to cling to any position, and even less to obstruct the rise of younger persons”.

But just days later, Raúl Castro appeared to suggest his older brother may still be able to play an important executive role. “Fidel has . . . full use of his mental faculties with some small physical limitations,” the country’s acting president said as he toured the electoral district in the eastern city of Santiago where Mr Castro is a candidate to become a deputy.

Raúl said his brother was consulted on major decisions and exercised two hours a day. “He has recovered quite a lot of weight and muscular mass . . . for this, all party delegates support him running again (for the national assembly),” he said.

Mr Castro’s convalescence and activities since he temporarily ceded power to Raúl have been shrouded in extraordinary secrecy.

“They are in guerrilla mode and anything is possible,” a western diplomat said. “Do not expect an answer to the retirement question until the last moment,” he added.

Even veteran Communist party members are uncertain what will happen. “I think Fidel will step down and continue to guide us from another position. We have gotten through these difficult moments remarkably well, why would we now go backward?” Yolanda Rodriguez, a former member of the national assembly, said.

Another veteran of the revolution’s early days, who does not want to be named, said Mr Castro would never be replaced as head of state as long as the United States demanded it.

Speculation as to who might replace Mr Castro centres on Raúl, 76, though there are some people who believe both Castros might step aside, with vice-president Carlos Lage, 56, who already functions much like a prime minister, the apparent favourite to assume the presidency or to become first vice-president behind Raúl.

Even if Mr Castro does step down as president, few believe he’ll go off and meditate in the mountains. “Will he really be announcing his retirement? Of course not,” says Domingo Amuchastegui, a former Cuban intelligence officer who defected in the 1990s and now lives in Florida.

He said: “Any serious approach to his personality confirms that he is a man ready to die with his boots on, until the limits of his physical and intellectual abilities.”

Other analysts suggest even a formal relinquishing of power will be a watershed in Cuba history.

“For the first time in 50 years, Cuba would have a new head of state,” said Julia Sweig, director of Latin America studies at the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations.

She said: “It would signal in Cuba a new era might be dawning and be huge news in Washington. Until the real funeral it will be as close as we will come to an opportunity to move the policy debate forward.”

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