Posts from — July 2008

Lt. Col. Chris Simmons, former US Army counter-intelligence officer and founder of the Cuban Intelligence Research Center, has revealed the following individuals as agents of influence of the Cuban government in the United States in an interview conducted by journalist Oscar Haza in his Miami-based TV program, A Mano Limpia.

1. Alberto Coll
2. Gillian Gunn Clissold
3. Marifeli Perez Stable
4. Gilberto Abascal

To be continued…

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From The Economist print edition

Raúl Castro preaches patience

HE TOOK over as Cuba’s acting president two years ago, and was officially confirmed in the job in February. But in some ways Raúl Castro must still govern in the shadow of his older, and ailing, brother, Fidel. If any Cubans had forgotten this, they were reminded as he took to the podium in Santiago, Cuba’s second city, on July 26th to deliver the annual speech that marks the anniversary of the official start of the country’s revolution. Raúl, a short man, was dwarfed by a vast image of Fidel, clenching his fist in salute.

In the past few months, Raúl has introduced a series of small but significant changes. He has dropped some of the petty restrictions that irritate Cubans. If they can afford it, they are now free to buy DVD players, stay in tourist hotels and use mobile phones. More significantly, private farmers can buy their own supplies and equipment, and cultivate more of the vast tracts of idle state-owned land. Even the egalitarian dream under which heart surgeons were paid barely twice as much as street cleaners is being ended, with the introduction of performance-related pay.

These steps signal that consumerism is no longer officially frowned upon, and that Raúl Castro recognises that private initiative is essential to reduce his country’s dependence on imports and eventually to allow Cubans’ derisory wages to rise. The mini-reforms have been popular, and Cubans expect more. Officials have hinted that the right to buy cars, to travel, and even to buy and sell property is being considered behind the scenes. There are signs, too, that they are discussing a bigger role for private enterprise beyond farming.

But Raúl had no such announcements to make in Santiago. Instead, his subdued audience of 10,000 were told in some detail of government investment in roads and in addressing the city’s appalling water shortage. Austerity, not market reform, was the message. “As much as we desire to solve every problem, we cannot spend more than what we have,” Mr Castro said. He cited rising oil prices (though the island receives more than half its oil from Venezuela at a concessional price). The government had already said that rising food prices would cost the country an extra $1 billion this year.

So has the reformist drive halted having barely started? There are hints of intensifying debate, if not infighting, within the regime. Mr Castro noted that public discussion on raising the retirement age should not be open-ended. “We do not aspire to unanimity, which is usually fictitious,” he said. That contrasts with Fidel’s oft-repeated insistence on “unity”.

Some foreign investors are betting that Cuba is heading on an increasingly capitalist route. A European fund which invests in Cuba found its share placing last March 70% oversubscribed. A London-based consortium has announced that it is going ahead with plans to build a €350m ($545m) country club and golf resort overlooking the Florida Straits, complete with luxury villas for sale to foreigners.

But change is likely to remain slow at least until the end of next year, when the Communist Party holds its long-overdue sixth congress. Mr Castro has said that the congress will set the country’s “economic and political directives”. Until then, Cubans will need yet more patience.

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Via Strange Maps:

In a military exclusion zone in the Gulf of Cazones, not far to the south-west of the infamous Bay of Pigs, lies a small island formerly known as Cayo Blanco de Sur. The island is 15 km long, but never more than 500 metres wide (although another source claims it is 24 km long and 1 km wide). It is uninhabited but for the iguanas and birds that are indigenous there, and the occasional tourists stopping over. The area is very biodiverse, hosting several endangered species of fish and coral. The reefs make the island inaccessible to any but the smallest boats, and even then landing often involves wading ashore.

In June 1972, Fidel Castro while on a state visit to East Berlin gifted the island to East Germany. Cuba renamed it Cayo Ernesto Thaelmann, after the German communist politician. Ernst Thälmann (German spelling) was leader of the German Communist Party (KPD) during much of the Weimar era, unsuccessfully stood for the presidency against Hitler and was imprisoned without trial from 1933 until his execution in 1944.

The southern beach of the island was renamed Playa RDA (‘GDR Beach’), and in August 1972, the East German ambassador to Cuba erected a bust of Ernst Thälmann on communist Germany’s one and only foothold in the tropics. In 1975, East German Schlager singer Frank Schöbel traveled to the island to record ‘Insel im Golf von Cazones’ on the spot – a musical effort which apparently has been lost to posterity. The island wasn’t mentioned in the treaty unifying both Germanys, which makes it at least thinkable that at present it’s the last remaining piece of East German territory. For the reunified (and capitalist) Germany post-1990 never made any formal claims on the island.In 1998, the island was severely battered by hurricane ‘Mitch’ – the bust of Thälmann fell over and hasn’t been replaced since. In 2001, the German online newspaper ‘Thema 1’ learned of the existence of Ernst Thälmann Insel and attempted to parcel it up for sale. The renewed interest by a re-united, ‘capitalist’ Germany embarrassed Cuba, which denied German journalists access to the island and declared that the 1972 transfer was ‘symbolic’ only…

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Army General Raul Castro delivered a speech in Santiago de Cuba yesterday commemorating the 55th anniversary of the start of the communist revolution. Castro warned the populace of more hard times ahead.

Relevant parts of the speech:

The majority of our nation has demonstrated sufficient familiarity and maturity to understand these truths, which turn out to be inescapable. On the other hand, other persons stubbornly try to close their eyes before the world’s problems. I repeat that the Revolution has done and will continue to do everything in its power to foster its development and reduce to a minimum the unavoidable consequences of the current international crisis for the population. However, we must inform our people in a timely manner of the difficulties so that they may be prepared to face them. We have to get used to not receiving just good news.

[...]

As great as our desires may be to resolve each problem, we cannot spend more than what we have, and in order take the greatest advantage, it is vital to save everything, primarily fuel.

[...]

As a poor country without easily exploitable large natural resources, which has to work hard to earn a living in a world where most of the people live in the direst poverty, the material objectives of our people cannot be too ambitious.

[...]

Aside from production, our defence will not be ignored regardless of the outcome of the next presidential elections in the United States. Defence preparedness is going well. In November 2007, we carried out the Moncada exercises in the western and central part of the island with good results. In the eastern territory, we carried them out in June because we decided to postpone them in order to not affect the recovery efforts in the aftermath of last year’s heavy rains. We continue the favourable development of Operation Caguairan which has translated into a significant increase of reserve preparedness, who complement active duty and militia troops. At the same time, we have continued developing the military theatre of operations, upgrading of armaments and other of the resources, and developing and training officers; more than 2,000 graduated this year, the highest rate in the last 10 years.

The conditions have been created to carry out the strategic exercise Bastion 2008 with highest quality and rigour in November.

Full speech translated by BBC Monitoring.

Further coverage from: AFP, BBC video report, AP, Reuters, & New York Times.

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Ricardo Pau-Llosa, a Cuban-American poet and art critic who resides in Coral Gables, Florida, was interviewed by PBS’ NewsHour with Jim Lehrer in a special series of the program that couples profiles of contemporary poets with reports on news and trends in the world of poetry.

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Stratfor provides analysis about the current strategic issue in the Western Hemisphere and poses the question: what about subs instead of planes in Cuba?

Summary

With rumors flying (along with subsequent denials) about the potential stationing of Russian military aircraft in Cuba, there is another possibility: the stationing of Russian submarines. It would be a Cold War redux — and an effective way for Russia and the United States to hone their submarine and anti-submarine tactics.

Analysis

During the Cold War — even after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 — Cuba offered an important port for Soviet submarine operations along the U.S. eastern seaboard. Though the rumor mill this week has concentrated on Cuba as a potential refueling base for Russian aircraft — one with no munitions — there is another (unmentioned) possibility worth considering: What about the return of Russian submarines?

U.S. submarine operations in the Barents Sea enjoy not only the use of nearby ports in NATO countries but also rotations facilitated by a fleet of some 50 attack submarines. Russia’s submarine fleet is doctrinally inclined more toward surge deployments in times of crisis than the sustained global presence that the U.S. Navy has been perfecting since World War II. Though Russian subs could lurk in Atlantic waters close to Washington, Russian crews are neither accustomed to nor drilled in such lengthy deployments.

In addition, given the neglect of the 1990s on Russia’s fleet — subsequent maintenance and upgrades aside — reliability remains a concern, and lengthy Russian deployments leave subs much farther from friendly ports than do lengthy deployments of the U.S. fleet.

[Read more →]

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