Michael Reid, The Economist‘s Latin America editor and author of the book Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America’s Soul, has a piece in El Pais about Cuba and Venezuela’s mutual dependence:
That said, the Castro brothers have failed to implement a strategy to ensure the survival of their regime beyond their lives. Raul had a plan: convoluted Vietnamese-style economic reforms that combines capitalism and communist political control, and the appointment of younger leadership at a party congress to be held this year. But Fidel’s recovery of a botched abdominal surgery that almost killed him in late 2006, changed these plans. The indefinite postponement of the party conference and the freezing of reforms demonstrates Fidel’s veto power continues.
By blocking reform, Fidel has inextricably tied his legacy to the survival of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. Without free Venezuelan oil, unrest in a Cuba without reform would reach uncontrollable levels. But Chavez also depends on Fidel: Cuban doctors who staged the primary care program Barrio Adentro have returned to the island, but there are many security officials and Cuban espionage protecting Chavez from political threats.