The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based independent think tank engaged in defense and security research, asks in its analysis of Cuba, how much of a threat does the Communist regime really pose to the world’s only superpower:
Raúl’s position as head of the Revolutionary Armed Forces (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias – FAR), who were greatly bolstered by the controlled economic reforms initiated in 1993, suggested that the new president would be in favour of expanding such open-market conditions to benefit the rest of the country. In reality, however, Raúl’s loyalty may lie less with the introduction of capitalism and more with the military itself. He was in favour of the 1993 reforms because they benefitted the army, not because he saw them as an intrinsically positive development.
This allegiance to the armed forces is not unexpected, but may well be giving the US some cause for alarm. The Cuban military currently manages around 60 percent of the economy, making it the strongest institution in the country. With its former head now in charge, the chances of a military state arising appear to be rather high. Indeed, the military exercises of 2004, shortly after Fidel’s public collapse, were the largest executed in nearly twenty years. It is reasonable to suppose that this was intended as a ‘show of strength’, not just for Cuba, but for Raúl himself (knowing, as he would, that he was the obvious candidate for power after his brother) and an indication of the route down which Cuba will be heading.
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(Image: Cuban military leadership. By La Nueva Cuba.)