Category — Military expenditures

The September/October 2008 edition of Military Review (pdf) published by the US Army Combined Arms Center has an article on Chinese military influence in Latin America.  A section addresses Cuba’s military acquisition of Chinese arms and technology, as follows:

Norinco Type 89 Armored Personnel Carrier. (Photo: China North Industries Corp.)

Special case: Cuba. Cuba has increasingly relied on Chinese assistance for its military because of generous terms. China helped Cuba upgrade its air defense system by providing more advanced communications equipment, improving its integration and central control, and assisting with maintenance and spare parts. China has also helped the Cuban air force maintain its aging Soviet-era fleet and upgrade some of its MIG-21s. China’s Northern Industries supplied the Cuban military with APCs, transport vehicles, and logistics equipment. However, it’s unlikely Cuba will make any major arms purchases from the PRC or that China will be willing to supply them. Advanced systems that would significantly enhance Cuban power projection capabilities—such as missiles, J series fighter jets, more capable radar and command systems, and naval assets equipped with cruise missiles—are therefore unlikely to come from China.

Cuba is unlikely to acquire such systems for three reasons. First, its doctrine does not envisage any power projection capability. To do so would be futile because of the proximity and tremendous power of the United States. Despite ts anti-American rhetoric, Havana is well aware of the risks of provoking Washington when Cuba no longer enjoys super-power protection. Second, Cuba’s anomalous and stagnant economy cannot afford such systems even at Chinese prices. Third, various Cuban officers and others from across Latin America report that the Cuban military is not happy with the quality of Chinese weapons. (A Thai colonel who served over a decade as an armor officer operating Chinese and American tanks said, “Chinese equipment is fairly good in the first two to three years. After that, it gets all rusty. I would rather use a 15-year old American M-11 than a 4-year old Chinese APC.”)

For its part, China believes arming Cuba with advanced weapons systems endangers China’s relations with the United States. Challenging the U.S. from a country that neighbors the U.S. and arouses strong emotions in Washington might cost China more than any benefits it gained. Therefore, Beijing is cautious in dealing with Havana. Professor Guo Shuyong, an international relations expert at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, says, “We remember the Monroe Doctrine and respect U.S. influence in Latin America. China is not like the Soviet Union 50 years ago. There will be no Cuban missile crisis.”

During a trip to Latin America in 2004, President Hu Jintao of China spent only a short time in Cuba and while there, refrained from making any comments that gave the impression the PRC intended to forge an alliance with Fidel Castro. Since then, Chinese trade and investment has been rather insignificant when compared with its presence in other South American countries, such as Brazil and Argentina.

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Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC) publishes different data sets concerning the military sector, overall security environment, human rights situation and governance in all together 170 countries.

The following data set identifies the danger of disproportionate military capacities impairing development. Checks whether an unproportionately high share of military expenditure, military personnel and arms imports may have a negative effect upon both human and economic development (Criteria 8 of the EU Code of Conduct).

If rated as “red”, there is a clear danger that this may be indeed the case. Cuba rated “green”, not critical.

Military data is based upon information obtained from both the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) as well as from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London.

Most notable in this data set is Cuba’s military expenditure, military personnel per inhabitants and number of military and paramilitary forces personnel.

“Cuba’s regular army, twenty years ago, numbered 145,000 men, most of them conscripted privates who served for three years. They were backed up by at least 110,000 ready reserves, who were trained forty-five days or more annually.  The best estimates point to military expenditures of $1.8 billion or more in 1985. This military outlay amounted to more than 10 percent of the government budget and exceeded eight percent of the island’s gross domestic product.”

Military Capacity

Military expenditure 2007 in Million USD (constant 2005)

1,416,000

Military expenditure as share of GDP 2007

not available

Number of personnel in military and paramilitary forces 2006

76,000

Military and paramilitary forces per 1.000 inhabitants

6.76

Military and paramilitary forces per physician

1.14

Imports of major conventional weapons, 2002-2006, in Million USD

not available

Share of weapons imports in total imports

not available

Source: SIPRI Yearbook 2007; SIPRI Yearbook 2008; IISS Military Balance 2007

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