Category — Armed Forces
Crazy Ivans in Cuban waters
Stratfor provides analysis about the current strategic issue in the Western Hemisphere and poses the question: what about subs instead of planes in Cuba?
Summary
With rumors flying (along with subsequent denials) about the potential stationing of Russian military aircraft in Cuba, there is another possibility: the stationing of Russian submarines. It would be a Cold War redux — and an effective way for Russia and the United States to hone their submarine and anti-submarine tactics.
Analysis
During the Cold War — even after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 — Cuba offered an important port for Soviet submarine operations along the U.S. eastern seaboard. Though the rumor mill this week has concentrated on Cuba as a potential refueling base for Russian aircraft — one with no munitions — there is another (unmentioned) possibility worth considering: What about the return of Russian submarines?
U.S. submarine operations in the Barents Sea enjoy not only the use of nearby ports in NATO countries but also rotations facilitated by a fleet of some 50 attack submarines. Russia’s submarine fleet is doctrinally inclined more toward surge deployments in times of crisis than the sustained global presence that the U.S. Navy has been perfecting since World War II. Though Russian subs could lurk in Atlantic waters close to Washington, Russian crews are neither accustomed to nor drilled in such lengthy deployments.
In addition, given the neglect of the 1990s on Russia’s fleet — subsequent maintenance and upgrades aside — reliability remains a concern, and lengthy Russian deployments leave subs much farther from friendly ports than do lengthy deployments of the U.S. fleet.
Sphere: Related ContentTags: Barents Sea, Cuba, former soviet union, International Relations, maritime, Moscow, NATO, Navy, nuclear bomber, Russia, russian aircraft, russian strategic bombers, submarine, U.S. Navy, Western Hemisphere
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July 25, 2008 No Comments
Russian officials & Chavez talk of military bases in the Caribbean
Pavel Felgenhauer
Eurasia Daily Monitor
The Jamestown Foundation
Moscow officials hinted through the media on July 21 that Russian Tu-160 and Tu-95 strategic bombers, armed with nuclear-tipped long-range X-55 cruise missiles, may be deployed on Cuba, as an asymmetric response to the planned US deployments of missile defense systems in Europe. The bombers could refuel at one of Cuba’s airfields, where Russian specialists have already looked at the site. According to the unnamed officials, a “political decision to deploy to Cuba” has not been yet taken, but is being discussed (Izvestiya, Interfax, July 21). Russian authorities did not officially confirm or deny these media stories.
The situation might look on the surface like a replay of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when the United States and the Soviet Union came to the brink of nuclear war because Moscow secretly deployed nuclear missiles on the island. In 1962, Russian nukes and missiles were eventually withdrawn. Moscow promised to refrain in the future from deploying offensive weapons on Cuba, while Washington agreed to remove U.S. missiles from Turkey and not to use force to change the Cuban Communist regime.
In 1962, Russia had less than 10 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles that could hit the United States and they could not be kept in a ready-to-launch state longer than three consecutive days. The missile deployment in Cuba, though provocative, decreased somewhat the strategic capabilities gap between Moscow and Washington. To defend the missiles on Cuba against a possible US preventive attack, the Russian military deployed substantial conventional forces, including antiaircraft missiles.
Today, however, a deployment of strategic bombers in Cuba does not make any military sense. The planes would be too close to US air bases and could be shot down before they are able to take-off, even during a refueling stopover. The range of X-55 cruise missiles is 2000 to 3000 km, so there is no need to have them anywhere close to Cuba. To defend a temporary or permanent base, additional substantial conventional forces—jet fighters, antiaircraft missiles, combat-ready troops—must be deployed, but Russia’s depleted military would be hard pressed to find them.
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July 24, 2008 No Comments
Russian defense ministry denies bombers in Cuba
Ilshat Baichurin, spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, has denied Russia is considering basing strategic bomber aircraft in Cuba, AFP reports.
“We regard these sorts of reports from anonymous sources as disinformation,” Baichurin is quoted as saying in RIA Novosti.
Baichurin was referring to an article published Monday in the Izvestia daily citing an anonymous military source as saying that Moscow was considering sending bombers to Cuba in retaliation for the US plans, as reported by RIA Novosti.
He suggested the report could have been spread by foreign countries building military bases and installations around Russia, an apparent allusion to US plans to build elements of a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Moscow does not plan to build bases threatening other states, he said.
“Russia, out of its peace-loving policies, does not build military bases along the borders of other states,” RIA Novosti quoted Baichurin as saying.
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July 24, 2008 No Comments
Flashback - Cuban Missile Crisis
July 24, 2008 No Comments
Orbital ballistic missile system
Via Ria Novosti:
Russia could put in place an orbital ballistic missile system in response to U.S. missile defense plans for Central Europe, a senior Russian military expert said on Thursday…”A program could be implemented to create orbital ballistic missiles capable of reaching U.S. territory via the South Pole, skirting U.S. air defense bases,” said Col. Gen. Viktor Yesin, former chief of staff of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, now vice president of the Academy of Security, Defense and Law Enforcement Studies…Russian daily Izvestia quoted Defense Ministry sources as saying Russian strategic bombers may soon be deployed at airbases in Cuba, Venezuela and Algeria.
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July 24, 2008 No Comments
Machiavelli’s Strategy
Fidel Castro’s latest missive reflects on the “eventual installation of strategic Russian fighter-planes bases” in Cuba:
Raul was right to keep dignified silence over the statements published last Monday, July 21st, by Izvestia on the eventual installation of strategic Russian fighter-planes bases in our country. The news came up from a certain hypothesis elaborated in Russia associated with the Yankees obstinacy in setting up radars and launching pads for their nuclear shield close to the borders of that great power.
Yesterday, July 22nd, General Norton Schwartz, recently appointed U.S. new Air Force Chief of Staff, said at the Senate that if Russia did that it would be crossing the red line, something inadmissible to the United States security.
If you say yes I’ll kill you. If you say no I’ll do too; I’ll kill you anyway. It is Machavelli’s strategy applied to Cuba by the empire. No need for explanations, excuses or pardon.
In these times of genocide nerves of steel are much needed, and Cuba has them. The imperialists know it. On Saturday July 26th it will be 55 years since we have been restlessly fighting; there can be no better tribute to those fallen in action, those who perished later without ever abandoning their principles and those who keep on fighting. They are the symbol of a whole generation who put up a fight and it is only fair that our people rejoice in their memory.
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July 24, 2008 No Comments
