Category — Armed Forces

Via Stratfor:

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin arrived in Cuba on July 30 to discuss Russian energy investments on the island with the Cuban leadership.

On the surface, this looks like any old state visit between the Russians and the Cubans. But there are a number of reasons why this visit in particular caught Stratfor’s attention.

First, the visit comes as Cuba has resurfaced as a source of geopolitical friction between Russia and the United States. In recent days, a series of rumors and denials on everything ranging from relocating Russian bombers to Cuba to Russia setting up a small aerial refueling base on the island have been making their way through the Russian press. While the Russians have not made any concrete moves yet, the specter of Russia returning to the U.S. periphery is more than enough to grab Washington’s attention.

Second, the Russian official who made the visit is none other than Sechin, a longtime ally of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and the leader of one of Russia’s two major factions. Sechin is an enormously influential figure in the Russian leadership. As a former KGB man, he commands the loyalty of Russia’s powerful Federal Security Service (FSB). Moreover, as vice premier, he has considerable oversight over the Russian energy industry and is (not by coincidence) the boss of Russia’s giant state oil company Rosneft.

Sechin does not typically have such publicized visits. He is man who works in the shadows as any former KGB official would. Not only has this visit been publicized in both the Russian and Cuban press, but it was specifically printed in the English-language Moscow Times, which is designed for Western consumption. This visit was intended to grab the attention of the U.S. administration, particularly Kremlinologists like U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and segments of the CIA who were knee-deep in combating his activities in Latin America during the Cold War — and are likely all too familiar with Sechin’s history with the Cubans.

Washington is not going to be too comforted by the idea that Sechin is linking up with his old drinking buddies on the island. During his decades-long stint in the KGB during the Cold War, Sechin himself organized the Soviet Union’s illegal arms transfers in Latin America and Africa, which involved him having a close relationship with the Castro brothers. While Sechin is most certainly discussing business during this visit (including talks on Russian firm LUKoil building a refinery in Cuba to process Venezuelan heavy crude), this visit is about much more than energy deals. Russia is signaling to the United States that it may be ready to get aggressive again in Washington’s backyard, and Russian leaders like Sechin are going to be the ones to lead this effort.

[Photo: Russia Profile]

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Army General Raul Castro delivered a speech in Santiago de Cuba yesterday commemorating the 55th anniversary of the start of the communist revolution. Castro warned the populace of more hard times ahead.

Relevant parts of the speech:

The majority of our nation has demonstrated sufficient familiarity and maturity to understand these truths, which turn out to be inescapable. On the other hand, other persons stubbornly try to close their eyes before the world’s problems. I repeat that the Revolution has done and will continue to do everything in its power to foster its development and reduce to a minimum the unavoidable consequences of the current international crisis for the population. However, we must inform our people in a timely manner of the difficulties so that they may be prepared to face them. We have to get used to not receiving just good news.

[...]

As great as our desires may be to resolve each problem, we cannot spend more than what we have, and in order take the greatest advantage, it is vital to save everything, primarily fuel.

[...]

As a poor country without easily exploitable large natural resources, which has to work hard to earn a living in a world where most of the people live in the direst poverty, the material objectives of our people cannot be too ambitious.

[...]

Aside from production, our defence will not be ignored regardless of the outcome of the next presidential elections in the United States. Defence preparedness is going well. In November 2007, we carried out the Moncada exercises in the western and central part of the island with good results. In the eastern territory, we carried them out in June because we decided to postpone them in order to not affect the recovery efforts in the aftermath of last year’s heavy rains. We continue the favourable development of Operation Caguairan which has translated into a significant increase of reserve preparedness, who complement active duty and militia troops. At the same time, we have continued developing the military theatre of operations, upgrading of armaments and other of the resources, and developing and training officers; more than 2,000 graduated this year, the highest rate in the last 10 years.

The conditions have been created to carry out the strategic exercise Bastion 2008 with highest quality and rigour in November.

Full speech translated by BBC Monitoring.

Further coverage from: AFP, BBC video report, AP, Reuters, & New York Times.

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Stratfor provides analysis about the current strategic issue in the Western Hemisphere and poses the question: what about subs instead of planes in Cuba?

Summary

With rumors flying (along with subsequent denials) about the potential stationing of Russian military aircraft in Cuba, there is another possibility: the stationing of Russian submarines. It would be a Cold War redux — and an effective way for Russia and the United States to hone their submarine and anti-submarine tactics.

Analysis

During the Cold War — even after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 — Cuba offered an important port for Soviet submarine operations along the U.S. eastern seaboard. Though the rumor mill this week has concentrated on Cuba as a potential refueling base for Russian aircraft — one with no munitions — there is another (unmentioned) possibility worth considering: What about the return of Russian submarines?

U.S. submarine operations in the Barents Sea enjoy not only the use of nearby ports in NATO countries but also rotations facilitated by a fleet of some 50 attack submarines. Russia’s submarine fleet is doctrinally inclined more toward surge deployments in times of crisis than the sustained global presence that the U.S. Navy has been perfecting since World War II. Though Russian subs could lurk in Atlantic waters close to Washington, Russian crews are neither accustomed to nor drilled in such lengthy deployments.

In addition, given the neglect of the 1990s on Russia’s fleet — subsequent maintenance and upgrades aside — reliability remains a concern, and lengthy Russian deployments leave subs much farther from friendly ports than do lengthy deployments of the U.S. fleet.

[Read more →]

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Pavel Felgenhauer
Eurasia Daily Monitor
The Jamestown Foundation

Moscow officials hinted through the media on July 21 that Russian Tu-160 and Tu-95 strategic bombers, armed with nuclear-tipped long-range X-55 cruise missiles, may be deployed on Cuba, as an asymmetric response to the planned US deployments of missile defense systems in Europe. The bombers could refuel at one of Cuba’s airfields, where Russian specialists have already looked at the site. According to the unnamed officials, a “political decision to deploy to Cuba” has not been yet taken, but is being discussed (Izvestiya, Interfax, July 21). Russian authorities did not officially confirm or deny these media stories.

The situation might look on the surface like a replay of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when the United States and the Soviet Union came to the brink of nuclear war because Moscow secretly deployed nuclear missiles on the island. In 1962, Russian nukes and missiles were eventually withdrawn. Moscow promised to refrain in the future from deploying offensive weapons on Cuba, while Washington agreed to remove U.S. missiles from Turkey and not to use force to change the Cuban Communist regime.

In 1962, Russia had less than 10 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles that could hit the United States and they could not be kept in a ready-to-launch state longer than three consecutive days. The missile deployment in Cuba, though provocative, decreased somewhat the strategic capabilities gap between Moscow and Washington. To defend the missiles on Cuba against a possible US preventive attack, the Russian military deployed substantial conventional forces, including antiaircraft missiles.

Today, however, a deployment of strategic bombers in Cuba does not make any military sense. The planes would be too close to US air bases and could be shot down before they are able to take-off, even during a refueling stopover. The range of X-55 cruise missiles is 2000 to 3000 km, so there is no need to have them anywhere close to Cuba. To defend a temporary or permanent base, additional substantial conventional forces—jet fighters, antiaircraft missiles, combat-ready troops—must be deployed, but Russia’s depleted military would be hard pressed to find them.

[Read more →]

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Ilshat Baichurin, spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, has denied Russia is considering basing strategic bomber aircraft in Cuba, AFP reports.

“We regard these sorts of reports from anonymous sources as disinformation,” Baichurin is quoted as saying in RIA Novosti.

Baichurin was referring to an article published Monday in the Izvestia daily citing an anonymous military source as saying that Moscow was considering sending bombers to Cuba in retaliation for the US plans, as reported by RIA Novosti.

He suggested the report could have been spread by foreign countries building military bases and installations around Russia, an apparent allusion to US plans to build elements of a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Moscow does not plan to build bases threatening other states, he said.

“Russia, out of its peace-loving policies, does not build military bases along the borders of other states,” RIA Novosti quoted Baichurin as saying.

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