Category — Diplomacy

ISN Security Watch has an article addressing Cuba’s international relations leverage and foreign investment:

When Russian daily Izvestia reported on 21 July that Russian Tu-160 and Tu-95MS bombers had landed in Cuba, it set off a sprint in Washington as analysts and military leaders struggled to understand the situation.

At first, it appeared that Moscow had made a very serious gesture. Russia’s perceived geopolitical maneuver in Cuba, many thought, was in response to the US’ plans for an anti-missile shield defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

By 24 July, after three days of media hype and speculation over Russia’s true intentions, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Ilshat Baichurin, dismissed any intention for a strategic deployment in Cuba.

Two events quickly followed up this announcement. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin arrived in Cuba on 30 July for extended talks with Raul and Fidel Castro. A former KGB operative and known confidant of now-Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Sechin was an active operative during the Cold War and enjoyed a deep relationship with the Castros.

Putin then followed up Sechin’s visit with a 5 August announcement that Russia ought to “restore [its] position in Cuba and other countries.”

Observers agree a military presence in Cuba is not in Moscow’s best interests; rather, closer economic ties would behoove both nations. Sechin’s recent visit underlines the latter observation and coaxes Washington into a more open posture toward Cuba, an island nation the next US presidential administration would likely prefer not to lose again to the Russians. [Read more →]

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Via Bloomberg:

United Aircraft Corp., the Russian state aerospace group, and OAO Aviaexport agreed with Cuba’s Civil Aviation Institute to sell the Caribbean nation airplanes and set up service centers for local clients.

A memorandum of understanding was signed last week during Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin’s visit to Cuba to deliver models including OAO Tupolev Co.’s Tu-204 mid-range planes and Antonov An- 148 regional jets, Russia’s Industry and Trade Ministry said in a statement on its Web site today.

Russian drugmakers OAO Pharmstandard and OOO Pharmapark also agreed with Cuba’s Center of Genetic Engineering and Biotechnologies to cooperate on producing vaccines in Russia, according to the statement.

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Radio Netherlands examines Russian interest in restoring its military base in Cuba and the Cuban government’s lack of interest:

Cuba itself has already made it fairly clear that there’s no question of a renewed Russian military colonialism. The country is still sore at the fact that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought an end to the liberal flow of funds from Moscow. And the leadership in Havana hasn’t forgotten that ten years later, without any consultation, Russia ended to its last military presence in Cuba: the vast intelligence base in Torrens, better known as “Lourdes”, from which legend has it a pin could be heard falling anywhere in the southern United States, and all US communications could be tapped.

The present Cuban leader Raúl Castro would also seem to have little to gain from Russian sabre-rattling over Cuba, particularly as he now seems to be taking cautious steps towards improving relations with the United States.

Quite apart from all the overblown talk surrounding Cuba, it’s plain that the Russian army is using the extra billions in revenue from oil and gas sales to bring its military hardware up to scratch. New nuclear weapons and nuclear submarines have been developed, and an order has just been made for twelve new aircraft carriers (albeit of a modest size and without the usual nuclear propulsion), and there are feverish attempts to lift the armed forces out of the mess into which the once so mighty Red Army descended after the fall of the Soviet Union.

From the perspective of military strategy, there is no sign that Moscow has the least interest in Latin America, other than for occasional arms sales to countries like Venezuela. Russia’s geopolitical priorities now lie in Asia, where it is seeking a strategic partnership with China and India, and was co-initiator of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a potential future counterpart to NATO. In contrast to the vague events now surrounding Cuba, in 2003 there was a military exercise to really set the alarm bells ringing. For the first time since 1991, Russian strategic bombers appeared above the Indian Ocean. The scenario of the exercise was plain enough: how to take out an entire US naval unit using nuclear cruise missiles. There’s nothing vague about that.

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Interfax via BBC Monitoring:

Chairman of the Russian government [Prime Minister] Vladimir Putin believes that Russia should restore its positions [as received] in Cuba.

“We need to restore our positions in both Cuba and in other countries,” Putin said at a meeting of the government presidium today.

Putin heard a report from Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin about the latter’s visit to Cuba as co-chairman of the Russian-Cuban intergovernmental commission.

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RIA Novosti via BBC Monitoring:

Russia is resuming its presence in such an important geostrategic area as Cuba and Latin America, Andrey Klimov, deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, told RIA-Novosti. He was speaking about the results of head of the Russian Security Council Nikolay Patrushev’s visit to Cuba.

Klimov believes that Russia is resuming collaboration with its good old partner. He added that “Cuba has a very important geostrategic situation”. He thinks it’s right that Russia as a major power should be present there in the spheres of economy and security. The Duma deputy did not rule out that Russian military presence on the island may also be considered. “Russia is quite likely to take a decision on military presence in Cuba in response to the deployment of American ABM systems next to the Russian border,” the deputy said.

However, according to another cable from Ria Novosti:

Cuban leadership has no intentions to resume military cooperation with Russia after a surprise closure of a Russian electronic listening post in Lourdes in 2001, a high-ranking Cuban diplomat said on Saturday.

After Russian Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin visited Cuba on July 30-31, the council issued a statement saying: “Russia and Cuba are set to make consistent efforts to restore longtime ties in all spheres of cooperation and to expand and strengthen them.”

“The Cuban leadership is ready to cooperate with Russia in civilian sectors but it is unlikely to revive bilateral military cooperation, especially after what happened with Lourdes,” the anonymous diplomatic source said.

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Stratfor provides analysis about the current strategic issue in the Western Hemisphere and poses the question: what about subs instead of planes in Cuba?

Summary

With rumors flying (along with subsequent denials) about the potential stationing of Russian military aircraft in Cuba, there is another possibility: the stationing of Russian submarines. It would be a Cold War redux — and an effective way for Russia and the United States to hone their submarine and anti-submarine tactics.

Analysis

During the Cold War — even after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 — Cuba offered an important port for Soviet submarine operations along the U.S. eastern seaboard. Though the rumor mill this week has concentrated on Cuba as a potential refueling base for Russian aircraft — one with no munitions — there is another (unmentioned) possibility worth considering: What about the return of Russian submarines?

U.S. submarine operations in the Barents Sea enjoy not only the use of nearby ports in NATO countries but also rotations facilitated by a fleet of some 50 attack submarines. Russia’s submarine fleet is doctrinally inclined more toward surge deployments in times of crisis than the sustained global presence that the U.S. Navy has been perfecting since World War II. Though Russian subs could lurk in Atlantic waters close to Washington, Russian crews are neither accustomed to nor drilled in such lengthy deployments.

In addition, given the neglect of the 1990s on Russia’s fleet — subsequent maintenance and upgrades aside — reliability remains a concern, and lengthy Russian deployments leave subs much farther from friendly ports than do lengthy deployments of the U.S. fleet.

[Read more →]

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