The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based independent think tank engaged in defense and security research, asks in its analysis of Cuba, how much of a threat does the Communist regime really pose to the world’s only superpower:
Raúl’s position as head of the Revolutionary Armed Forces (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias – FAR), who were greatly bolstered by the controlled economic reforms initiated in 1993, suggested that the new president would be in favour of expanding such open-market conditions to benefit the rest of the country. In reality, however, Raúl’s loyalty may lie less with the introduction of capitalism and more with the military itself. He was in favour of the 1993 reforms because they benefitted the army, not because he saw them as an intrinsically positive development.
This allegiance to the armed forces is not unexpected, but may well be giving the US some cause for alarm. The Cuban military currently manages around 60 percent of the economy, making it the strongest institution in the country. With its former head now in charge, the chances of a military state arising appear to be rather high. Indeed, the military exercises of 2004, shortly after Fidel’s public collapse, were the largest executed in nearly twenty years. It is reasonable to suppose that this was intended as a ‘show of strength’, not just for Cuba, but for Raúl himself (knowing, as he would, that he was the obvious candidate for power after his brother) and an indication of the route down which Cuba will be heading.
“Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict“ is an article published in the periodical International Security I referenced in a July 2008 post, which included the Ladies in White as an example of nonviolent civil resistance, that is a worthwhile read as it addresses the “successful employment of nonviolent methods by organized civilian populations including boycotts, strikes, protests, and organized noncooperation to challenge entrenched power and exact political concessions.”
Hugo Chávez met yesterday with Fidel Castro and his brother Raúl Castro for about five hours during a visit that was not previously announced. [El Universal]
Havana Timeson luxurious apartments in Havana built for high-ranking officers of the Cuban Army (Ejército Revolucionario) and the MININT (Ministry of the Interior—State Security) in stark contrast with housing units constructed a few miles away in the capital’s community of San Agustin.
Army General Raúl Castro gave Cubans a reprieve by allowing them to open small businesses, but doubts exist if the measure meets with the goal of reducing a bloated bureaucracy and help reanimate the economy “without market reforms.” The enlargement of “self-employment,” expected by many Cubans and suggested by economists, was announced by Raúl Castro on Sunday before the National Assembly as part of “structural changes” that seeks to make the economic model more efficient and avoiding a collapse of the socialist system. [AFP]
The Committee on Economic Affairs of the Cuban National Assembly of People’s Power (Asamblea Nacional del Poder Popular, ANPP) began today studying different issues related to the situation on the island, specifically, the precarious economic performance, which has increased demands for fundamental change by the populace.
Ministers and other leaders also notified members of the Committee on the implementation of the state budget in the first half of 2010, low labor productivity and import substitution. [El Financiero]
Jerry Bremer, CEO of Criminal Justice International Associates via Mexidata.com asks whether Cuba continues to pose a security risk to anyone in the Western Hemisphere:
Cuba’s Interior Ministry reportedly consists of approximately 20,000 officials assigned to their security and intelligence apparatus, along with an estimated 50,000 Cuban nationals in various official missions in Venezuela.
Castro’s resource starved revolution has been nurtured generously by President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. The Castro brother’s personal wealth has been estimated as “combined — easily worth $2 billion.” The Chavez Frias family in Venezuela “has amassed wealth on a similar scale since Chavez’s presidency began in 1999.”
[...]
Cuba had been getting approximately $5 billion a year from Venezuela in “oil, cash and kind.” It is further believed that Bolivarian organized crime groups entrenched within Chavez’s administration “have skimmed about $100 billion of the nearly $1 trillion of oil revenues PDVSA Oil has earned since 1999.”
[...]
Both Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez continue to telegraph nervous vibes to true democratic and free nations with their vociferous support of Iran, Syria and North Korea, among others named as state sponsors of world terrorism, this as well as denouncing Israel and the U.S. The Castro and Chavez revolutions are indeed suspect, insofar as neither appears to benefit the suffering of the Cuban nor Venezuelan people.
Cuba is much less armed and resourced to defend a revolution by itself. If the Castro brothers and Chavez truly want to stand up factually to defend a benign threat to the hemisphere, as well as lead their people to a higher standard of survival and living conditions, they must aggressively denounce terrorism, drug trafficking, and related death and violence. Their actions in this positive step might show some genuine sincerity.
The Daily Telegraph on the future Cuban oligarchs awaiting in the wings for change, while Methuselah returns:
But one group is likely to be watching this strange political dance between the two Castro brothers with concern, as well as frustration: those who are preparing to amass vast personal wealth from Cuba’s eventual return to capitalism. They include senior officials within the regime.
[...]
And just as a select few Russians did after the collapse of Soviet communism, well-connected Cuban officials might make fortunes if they are in a position to control the sale of national assets, or hand out contracts for the development of the currently under-exploited, stagnant economy. Land, property, telecommunications rights, sugar and agriculture are among the many sectors which could be worth billions.
[...]
But who are the potential oligarchs? Esteban Morales has only named Mr Acevedo, the disgraced aviation boss. But his criticism appears to be aimed at corrupt government junior ministers and military bosses who manage parts of Cuba’s sprawling state run businesses.
While all government and military officials officially live on government salaries of as little as £25 a month, some already appear to be living far better-funded lifestyles. At a recent big-game fishing competition at the beach resort of Varadero, the Canadian expatriate competitors were surprised when they saw they were competing against some entirely Cuban teams, in motor yachts worth hundreds of thousands of dollars.
[...]
Yet those who hoped that, under Raul, a capitalist bonanza was about to begin have been disappointed by events over the last two weeks. Fidel Castro’s reappearance seems designed to send the clear message that he is back on the scene – and that, at least for now, real change is not yet in the air.
La Verdad Obrera (LVO), a publication of the Argentine Socialist Workers Party, has an interesting critical piece on the recent political developments in Cuba from a Trotskyist perspective.
The following incisive paragraphs were transcribed from the story:
Bureaucracy and corruption
Accompanying the announcement of prisoners being released and an economic adjustment is the corruption scandal at the highest levels of the state apparatus. Cuban authorities called upon Chilean businessman and Fidel Castro’s friend Max Marambio (ex-MIR militant, custodian to Salvador Allende and Marcos Enriquez Ominami’s presidential campaign director) to appear before them as he is accused of malfeasance and fraud against the Cuban state through his aliment company, Río Zasa. News of this tailspin into a scandal because of the strange death of general manager of the Chilean company Roberto Baudrand. Corruption in the highest levels of government splashed recently upon Cuban ministers Jorge Luis Sierra and Luis Manuel Ávila.
This situation confirms the denouncements reproduced in LVO 382 by Esteban Morales, researcher at the Center of Hemispheric Studies and United States in Havana, who was thrown out of the Cuban Communist Party (PCC) for pointing out that “corruption is the true counterrevolution” (Esteban Morales’s blog, July 7) and correctly signals out that state corruption is the way to place capitalist restoration in leadership circles within the state and PCC.
Bureaucracy and power
The public reappearance of Fidel Castro, even though declarations have not been made, expresses the support of the historic leader to his brother and the existing unity in the old guard gerontocracy of the Castroist bureaucracy that is evermore supported by the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) to exercise power with an iron hand and keep up under his control the new phase of the Cuban political process. The active reappearance of Fidel looks to put a limit to the conflict between different factions of the governing bureaucracy and discipline them in a time beset by a world crisis and financial upheaval, the regime’s challenge is to diminish the crisis over the masses’ movement of taking new steps on the road to pro-capitalist reforms.
In this sense, the release of anti-Castro opposition prisoners is far from being an expansion of freedoms and political rights of the worker and peasant masses of Cuba, so that they can organize themselves to defend their gains (as we Trotskyists explain) express an attempt by the bureaucratic regime, haunted by the specter of financial ruin, to reinforce a political bargaining and making concessions to imperialist and restorationist forces.
(Image: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.)
The Cuban parliament—National Assembly of People’s Power (Asamblea Nacional del Poder Popular, ANPP)—will “debate” on August 1st the country’s critical economic situation in its first annual ordinary session in the middle of expectations among the population of an opening. Permanent commissions, held before the parliamentary meeting, headed by Army General Raúl Castro “will look at important issues such as the economic, political, and social life of the country.” [Juventud RebeldeviaAFP]
Cuba has said it is ready to release more political prisoners, in addition to the 52 it announced it would free earlier this month. The releases are part of a deal between Cuba, the Catholic Church and Spain, which is taking in many of the men after their release. But the US has said prisoners who do travel to Spain will no longer be eligible for asylum in America, where many have relatives. [BBC]
Other releases have lifted people’s hopes in the past. In 1969-70, about 1,300 prisoners were deported. In 1979, after a controversial negotiation with some exiles, 3,600 opponents were set free – and expelled. In 1998, Pope John Paul II’s visit was followed by the release of 40 men – and another mass deportation. Few regimes have played more deftly the sinister game of confining and torturing innocent persons in rat-infested jails only to win praise for using them as bargaining chips in subsequent negotiations.
A couple of things make the latest release potentially more meaningful, as some critics, including the Miami-based Cuban American National Foundation, have said. The fact that the decision was made by Raul Castro, an admirer of the “Chinese way” pioneered by Deng Xiaoping, may signify something. The participation of the church, which has gained more recognition these past few days than in the previous half a century, is intriguing. And Cardinal Ortega’s discreet trip to Washington to brief American officials suggests that Raul Castro is interested in some kind of arrangement with the United States. The cardinal, in fact, stressed in his meetings that Raul Castro is serious about reform.
None of which guarantees anything. The safest bet is to assume that the Castros are – for the umpteenth time – taking one step back before taking two steps forward. Raul Castro’s insistence that the prisoners leave the island with their families means he wants to get rid of the independent journalists and the Ladies in White – and abort the embryonic civil society they had painstakingly engendered. But it is not inconceivable, given Raul Castro’s bind, that the regime will try some reform in order to beef up the economy and ensure its survival after Fidel Castro dies – a move that, if it’s to generate international support and investment, will require a degree of political accommodation.
Not even Raul Castro himself knows whether reform will really occur. But one thing is clear: The Black Spring heroes and their Ladies in White have revealed to us, against all odds, that the Castros are not invincible. After 51 years, this is a soothing thought.
Der Spiegel on the political and economic realities facing the Castro regime in its fight for survival:
But the release of the dissidents could also be a message to the Europeans, who have not been entirely sure what to make of the new president since he officially assumed office in February 2008. Raul is believed to be less of a fundamentalist and more of a pragmatist than his brother Fidel. “He is not someone who is out to change the system, but he does show an understanding for the problems,” says one of the Europeans in Havana.
At first, Raul Castro sparked hopes that reforms could be on the way. But so far his fellow Cubans have seen little change, except that they can now own mobile phones and computers with limited Internet access.
Europe, however, wants to see clear signs of liberalization, as a precondition of more intensive cooperation with Havana, especially “progress in the area of human rights and political freedom.” European governments reached this conclusion long ago, in December 1996, and the same conditions are still in place today. However, Castro has forced the Europeans’ hand by releasing the dissidents.
Faced with a catastrophic situation in Cuban agriculture, Raul Castro is urgently in need of aid from Europe. The sugarcane harvest this summer, once an important source of foreign currency, is the worst since 1905. It is even about half a million tons shy of the harvest in 2009, when hurricanes wreaked havoc on the country.
Cuba is now forced to import more than 80 percent of its food, while foreign investment and exports have declined dramatically. At the same time, the sugar island is practically bankrupt and has had to reduce imports of food products and spare parts by at least a third.
Tens of thousands of well-trained young Cubans are leaving the country every year to earn money for their families elsewhere. The numbers would probably be even higher if the government let them go. For this reason, EU diplomats expect more signals from Raul on July 26, a Cuban national holiday: more privatization in agriculture, more freedom to buy homes and a relaxation of restrictions on travel abroad.
The man behind the operation that broke up the most important organization involved in falsified documents in the United States was a double-agent who worked for Cuba and the United States. His codename was Lázaro.
In statements to EFE, Lázaro (whose real name is Robert Kelly) described the principal goal of “Tag Operation,” which was to prove Islamic terrorists used false documents sold by a [Mexican] group, however, the operation could not be completed because there was a lack of cooperation between U.S. security agencies.
Kelly (63-years old) is writing a book titled, Non Official Cover: The History of Lázaro (Sin cobertura oficial: la historia de Lázaro), where he relates his first mission was to infiltrate the Cuban General Directorate of Intelligence (Dirección de Inteligencia de Cuba) at the end of 1999 when he created a web page called La Voz de Cuba to defend the return of Elián González to his father.
He also asserts in his book that he was involved in the sale of SAM missiles in Nicaragua and in the defection of a Cuban scientist to the United States.
Mauricio Vicent wrote in today’s El Paísthat in the official media of Cuba there is talk of “reforms” that will be launched after August.
According to sources consulted by the daily, the Raul Castro government will make ”changes,” which include:
expansion of self-employment and above all the cooperativization of some services;
continuation of reductions in subsidies and social costs with the aim of making the system sustainable;
slowly reduce health services, which will have a social impact;
elimination of a dual currency;
renegotiate debt to cut financial tensions
Even sources of the Catholic Church and Spanish Foreign Ministry have heard Raúl Castro say “of the reforms.”
Vicent further adds, that sources say, Raúl Castro does not bet on Venezuela as a source of financial support and wants to avoid a repeat of what was experienced with the former Soviet Union, and the devastating economic crisis of the 1990s.
This speculation leads to the question, are there profound reforms underway that will encompass economic and political change or are they mere cosmetic changes to give an illusion and bide enough time for the Cuban regime to stay afloat until the next crisis imperils its existence?
Fidel Castro met with Cuban diplomats and warned of imminent nuclear war. [infobae]
Spanish diplomacy and the release of Cuban prisoners. [Radio Nederland]
Prime minister of Kuwait visits Cuba to sign bilateral agreements and the opening of a new embassy. [EFE]
EU diplomat: EU foreign ministers forced Spanish FM Moratinos to cede his obsession in negotiating with the Cuban government to change EU position on Cuba. [Diario de Sevilla]
El Salvador’s president will sign a bi-national aeronautical agreement with Cuba when he visits the island. [Chances]
The 73-year-old great grandson of Alexander Graham Bell was sentenced to life in prison without parole for quietly spying for Cuba for nearly a third of a century from inside the State Department. His wife was sentenced to 5½ years. Retired intelligence analyst Kendall Myers said he meant his country no harm and stole secrets only to help Cuba’s people who “have good reason to feel threatened” by U.S. intentions of ousting the communist Castro government. [AP via Atlanta Journal-Constitution]
(Image: Artist rendering of Kendall Myers and his wife in U.S. Federal Court. The couple shared an admiration of the Cuban revolution. By Getty Images.)
Christopher Sabatini, senior director of policy at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas and editor in chief of Americas Quarterly, argues for lifting the communications embargo on Cuba in the July/August 2010 issue of Foreign Policy magazine:
This leaves Washington in a quandary. Last week’s release of the 52 prisoners — independent journalists and human rights activists rounded up in the March, 2003 Black Spring crackdown — may have reduced the number of political prisoners rotting in Cuban jails to the lowest level in decades, but it was still, at best, a superficial act. Restrictions and state control over freedom of association and expression remain and there are still scores of prisoners being held for the inventive and uniquely Cuban offense of peligrosidad — “dangerousness” — often used to round up opponents under vague accusations of espionage. In addition to the now-estimated 120 political prisoners held in Cuban jails, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) contractor Alan Gross, arrested in December for distributing laptops and cell phones to Cuba’s small Jewish community, remains in prison without formal charges brought against him.
Given this, it would be a mistake for Washington to overreact, engaging Havana with open arms over what was, in effect, a publicity stunt by the Castro brothers. On the other hand, intentionally antagonizing the regime by ramping up demands or dismissing the gesture would be equally damaging.
But the United States can respond to this gesture in a way that benefits Cuban society and individuals without legitimizing the regime or provoking a hostile reaction by the anti-Castro lobby in the United States. Ironically, that means doing what President Barack Obama has promised to do all along: follow through on his pledge from last April to loosen restrictions on U.S. telecom activities in Cuba and assist U.S. business in providing the tools for Cubans to communicate beyond the prison walls of the Castros’ island nation.
Unlike lifting the trade embargo on Cuba, which would require an act of Congress, these changes could be made by executive order, avoiding a politically costly battle with pro-embargo legislators. But more importantly, granting greater scope for U.S. telecom companies to sell cell-phones, software, and laptops in Cuba and establish the necessary infrastructure to make them work — such as cell phone towers and routers — would look generous, while loosening the Castro regime’s control over its people.
Earlier today the pro-dialogue/anti-embargo Cuba Study Group founded by Cuban-American businessman Carlos Saladrigas in collaboration with Americas Society/Council of the Americas, and Brookings Institution released a 48-page report on empowering the Cuban people through technology with recommendations for private and public sector leaders.
(Image: Cuban telecommunications monopoly ETECSA telephones. By Ecopolis.)
If the prisoners — who include journalists, community organisers and opposition figures — are indeed set free, this would be a major concession on the part of the Castro government. It appears to be designed for external consumption, however. It could lead to improvements in Cuba’s foreign relations, particularly with Spain and other EU nations. EU foreign ministers will take up the issue of whether to uphold their “common position” on Cuba at their next summit in September. That position requires that the EU conduct an annual assessment of the human-rights situation in Cuba. Spain has been lobbying for some time for that requirement to be dropped.
However, the prisoner releases probably do not signal coming democratisation or any moves to provide Cubans with greater political rights. Moreover, there has been no fundamental shift in the tolerance of opposition. While discussions with Church representatives were under way in early June, the authorities rounded up and briefly detained 37 members of two dissident groups, Agenda para la Transición (Agenda for the Transition) and Unidad Liberal de la República de Cuba (the Cuban Republic’s Liberal Unity). Ostensibly this was to prevent two meetings due to take place in the house of a prominent dissident, Héctor Palacios, although the meetings proceeded any way.
Further, the Cuban Commission on Human Rights claims there are more than 100 additional political prisoners in Cuban jails.
[...]
The administration of President Barack Obama has taken modest steps towards improving relations with Cuba, such as eliminating Bush-era restrictions on travel to the island by Cuban-Americans and on their remittance of funds to their relatives. However, aware that the Cuba problem cannot be solved easily or quickly, the Obama government has decided to make no additional moves on Cuba policy in the approach to the US mid-term elections in November. Nonetheless, a campaign in the US legislature to weaken economic sanctions has continued. Two bills are advancing through Congress, one to facilitate US food sales to Cuba (by eliminating the need for Cuba to pay in cash in advance) and the other to remove restrictions on travel for US citizens. Although improvement on the human-rights front would help these bills’ prospects, final passage is highly uncertain.
[...]
In the absence of normalisation of political and commercial ties with Washington, Cuba’s relations with Venezuela will remain an important source of support for the economy. These are based on favourable terms of trade that link Cuba’s oil imports to the supply of healthcare and education professionals to Venezuela. If Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, were to be forced out of office, there would be a risk that current arrangements might be scaled back.
Partly reflecting this uncertainty, the Cuban authorities will continue to broaden international economic ties with other friendly countries, notably China, Brazil and Russia, which are becoming ever-more important trade partners. Restoring good relations with the EU would also help to mitigate the growing reliance on, and risks associated with, Havana’s links to Venezuela.
A day after giving a rare television interview, Cuba’s revolutionary leader Fidel Castro made a public appearance at an economic think tank in Havana, state-run television said, showing his photos. [AFP]
Newsweek magazine on the new tactics for an aged regime:
But Havana has already turned the concession to quick advantage. By taking the most obvious human-rights issue off the table, Raúl Castro has driven a new wedge between U.S. and European policies. Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Ángel Moratinos, who helped broker the deal, crowed that European negotiation, not American confrontation, had triumphed. Besides, the prisoner release is more symbol than substance. Cuba continues to detain critics, often for short periods, with no formal charges. Harassment and censorship have proved adequate to control the populace. Despite growing discontent over corruption, public protest is almost unknown. The Castro regime may be broke, but it’s firmly in control.
The faceless capitalists of Wall Street have long considered Venezuela a “sell” – the oil producing country’s foreign currency bonds are considered almost twice as risky as Greece’s. But might even Cuba’s revolutionary gerontocracy now believe the same?
For those who like to look at the world through the lens of financial conspiracies, that’s one tentative reading of why Cuba pledged last week to release 52 political prisoners. Yes, the issue was attracting unwelcome international attention. But it is also true that throughout its history, Cuba has been a master at playing its geo-strategic cards. The US and the USSR used to play the role of sugar daddy to the country before. Lately it’s been President Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela. But Venezuela’s economy, like Cuba’s, is now in a mess.
Any move that suggests Cuba wants to improve ties with the US – and freeing political prisoners is one step that could ease the US travel ban and, ultimately, the embargo – therefore represents a hedging of Cuba’s geo-strategic bets. Looked at another way, it is also a tacit recognition by Havana that Caracas, despite its similar ideological outlook and oil wealth, might now be, in traders’ parlance, an “underperform”.
The list of reasons of why Cuba – or Wall Street – might think so is long and growing. Venezuela this year tightened capital controls as it no longer has sufficient reserves to sustain the capital flight of the last year. Oil sector output – according to independent estimates – has fallen considerably over the past decade due to a lack of investment. And the country also faces a large and rising contingent liability in the form of unpaid compensation owed to private business that have been nationalised by Mr Chávez.
There are currently 11 lawsuits and arbitration claims totalling $43.5bn lodged with the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement on Investment Disputes. The bulk of this relates to a $10bn claim by ExxonMobil and a $30bn claim by ConocoPhillips. Looked at another way, according to local consulting firm Ecoanalitica, Mr Chavez has announced nationalizations of some $23bn since 2006, and of that amount, the authorities have paid almost $9bn, leaving $14bn owing.
Lately, brokers only tend to recommend buying Venezuelan bonds on the basis of how long they need to hold them and not lose money. (About 4 years, assuming current 15 per cent yields and a recovery rate of 30 cents on the dollar.) With the largest oil reserves outside the Middle East, and a relatively comfortable foreign reserves position, Venezuela certainly can pay, should it wish to. The question for investors in a country where the government calls its private brokers a “tumor” is: how long will it? The Castro brothers may have given a clue.
(Image: Fidel Castro is seen on 18 June, 2008 in Havana during a meeting with Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez and his brother Raúl Castro. By AFP/GETTY Images.)
Cuba’s announcement that it will free 52 political prisoners over the next four months is a welcome development, but Spain’s Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos’ claim that this opens a “new phase in Cuba” is ludicrous.
[...]
First, Cuba has a long history of using political prisoners as a bargaining chip, releasing a handful of prisoners in exchange for economic or diplomatic concessions, and later rounding up the next batch.
[...]
Second, even if Cuba keeps its word and releases the 52 dissidents in an effort to get the European investments it desperately needs, that would only be less than a third of the island’s political prisoners.
[...]
Third, we still don’t know whether this will be a prisoners’ release, or a forced deportation. In the past, Cuba has tended to release political prisoners who agree to go into exile. A Roman Catholic Church statement announcing the prisoners’ release last week said they “will be able” to leave the country, but did not specify what will happen with those who want to stay.
Fourth, and most important, the Cuban regime is not even talking about modifying articles 72 and 73 of its criminal code, an Orwellian legislation that allows it to put people behind bars before they committed a crime on the mere suspicion that they may commit one in the future.
[...]
My opinion: I agree. Instead of following Moratinos’ recommendation, the European Union should be a little imaginative, and tell Cuba: “We applaud your move, and we are ready to lift our Common Position, but you must take a few minimal steps to show that you are ready to start abiding by United Nations-sanctioned fundamental rights.”
“Don’t panic, we are not talking about the big things, such as free elections, or a multiparty system, like the U.S. laws demand,” the Europeans could say. “We are just asking for small things, such as allowing all Cubans uncensored access to the Internet, freedom to meet with whomever they want, or allowing dissidents to write and publish on the island.”
Of course, the Cuban regime will not go along because it knows that it would not survive if Cuba ceases to be a police state.
But it would put Cuba’s dictatorship on the spot, and help put the latest headlines about the prisoners’ release in proper perspective.
A frail-looking Fidel Castro visited the National Center of Scientific Investigation in Havana on 7 July 2010. This is his first public visit since 2006. [Juventud Rebelde]
CUBA’S leadership understands only too well how starving to death can help a cause. In 2000 Fidel Castro, who had apparently been moved by the plight of Irish republican hunger-strikers, approved the construction in Havana of a memorial to Bobby Sands and his fellow prisoners. Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein’s leader, attended its unveiling.
Now, the same form of protest has been turned on Cuba’s rulers. In February Orlando Zapata, a 42-year-old plumber and bricklayer, died after 12 weeks without food. He was demanding better conditions in Cuba’s grim prisons. A second hunger-striker, Guillermo Fariñas, is critically ill. Although not in jail, he is calling for the release of 25 ailing prisoners. In an online letter he said dying would be an “honour”.
The tactic has worked. On July 7th, Cuba’s Catholic church announced that the government had told it that 52 prisoners arrested in 2003 would be freed from jail. Five were set to leave immediately, and the rest are expected to be liberated (but then exiled) in the next few months. If implemented, it will be Cuba’s first mass-release of political prisoners since 1998.
The hunger strikes were probably what prodded Raúl Castro, who became Cuba’s president in 2006, to act. They were attracting unwelcome attention. In May Jaime Ortega, the cardinal of Havana, negotiated the lifting of a ban on marches by the Ladies in White, a group of wives and mothers of political prisoners, and an end to their harassment by government-organised mobs. He later convinced Raúl Castro to free a paraplegic prisoner, Ariel Sigler.
International pressure also grew stronger. The church called in reinforcements from abroad: last month the Vatican’s senior diplomat, Dominique Mamberti, went to Cuba and met the president. That trip was followed on July 6th by a visit from Miguel Ángel Moratinos, Spain’s foreign minister. The timing of the prisoners’ release—as well as the decision to send the first five to Spain—seems to have been aimed at giving Mr Moratinos something to show for his effort.
Official Cuban media damns political prisoners as “mercenaries” in the pocket of the United States. This release will reduce their number by about a third, leaving 100 or so in jail—half the average of recent years. The outbreak of clemency suggests that Raúl Castro may have decided that exiling dissidents is easier than locking them up: as one Western diplomat in Havana says, the president “seems to view [the prisoners] as an unfortunate inheritance from his brother.” Their release will improve relations with the European Union, which will meet in September to discuss Cuba, and encourage those in America who want to loosen trade and travel restrictions on the country.
But Fidel Castro, who is still the power behind the throne in Cuba, may block any attempt to free the remaining prisoners, even if they are sent overseas. In 1955, as a young revolutionary, he was freed from jail by Fulgencio Batista, a dictator, following international pressure. He knows better than anyone what happened next.
Cuba’s communist authorities are to free at least 52 political prisoners (destined for exile in Spain), Catholic Church officials in the capital Havana said. [BBC]
The Archdiocese of Havana’s Press Release (pdf) on the prisoners’ release.
Vatican Foreign MinisterArchbishop Dominique Mamberti will begin his five-day visit to Cuba tomorrow.
Reuters characterizes the Catholic church, in its wire story of the visit, as “flexing its political muscle and calling for change on the communist-led island”:
The concessions by the Cuban government have raised hopes that more prisoners will be freed in a gesture to Mamberti, who is the third Vatican official to come to Cuba since Raul Castro succeeded older brother Fidel Castro as president in 2008.
Mamberti is scheduled to meet with Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez, as well as take part in a church conference where Cuban intellectuals, including several exiles from the United States, will discuss key issues on the island.
His official reason for coming to Cuba is to mark the 75th anniversary of the start of Vatican-Cuba diplomatic relations.
Archbishop Mamberti’s visit coincides with a four-day conference organised by the Catholic Church in Havana and its current agenda includes issues that go beyond Church questions, e.g. the economy, migration and the relations between Cubans at home and abroad.
Cuban-American academics Carmelo Mesa-Lago and Jorge Domínguez are allowed to attend, while Dagoberto Valdés and Oswaldo Payá are not.
Alberto Pérez Giménez comments in today’s ABC (one of Spain’s national newspapers) about Jorge Masetti’s history with Latin American terrorist groups trained in Havana.
And also, how Vilma Espín (Raúl Castro’s deceased wife) served as hostess at dinner parties with “Basque fighters” in attendance.
ETA, per Pérez Giménez, remains under the protection of the Cuban regime.
(Image: 2009 marked the 50th anniversary of ETA. Radio Netherlands Worldwide.)
In early May, the Brookings Institutionpublished a study on U.S.-Cuba environmental cooperation when dealing with the potential risks of oil exploration in shared ocean waters:
As Cuba continues to develop its deepwater oil and natural gas reserves, the consequence to the United States of a similar mishap occurring in Cuban waters moves from the theoretical to the actual. The sobering fact that a Cuban spill could foul hundreds of miles of American coastline and do profound harm to important marine habitats demands cooperative and proactive planning by Washington and Havana to minimize or avoid such a calamity. Also important is the planning necessary to prevent and, if necessary, respond to incidents arising from this country’s oil industry that, through the action of currents and wind, threaten Cuban waters and shorelines.
(Image: Repsol offshore oil exploration rig. Spanish oil giant Repsol YPF has contracted with a unit of Italian oil company Eni SpA for a drilling rig that some sources said was bound for operation in Cuba’s still untapped offshore fields. 5 May 2010.)
U.S. Army War College‘s Strategy Research Project released earlier this year two unclassified student reports on U.S.—Cuba policy.
Both reports characterize U.S. foreign policy of the last half-century towards Cuba as a failure. Thus, these reports give an inkling to the mindset of officers from the U.S. Army War College about the strategy of fostering democratic transition in Cuba.
The first report, “United States Security Strategy Towards Cuba,” is written by Lieutenant Colonel Sergio M. Dickerson (U.S. Army). Lt. Col. Dickerson questions whether Cuba poses a security threat to the United States, and contends:
Although Cuba poses no traditional threats to the U.S., geographically, their 90-mile proximity should concern us. Our proximity to Cuba assures U.S. involvement, be it voluntary or involuntary, in a major crisis. Consider a disease outbreak that begins in Cuba over a break down in hygiene, government pollution or other misfortune attributable to economic strife. The disease has no boundaries and quickly reaches the Florida shores via travelling Cuban American citizens. This scenario could be mitigated or even preventable under the auspices of better relations. Aside from the obvious medical benefits a partnership provides, established communications with Cuba would likely prevent an uncontrolled spread in the U.S.
Regarding U.S. policy, he suggests:
Building American and Congressional support for engagement…establish a formal infrastructure establish a formal infrastructure that communicates to Cuba and the International Community at large that we’re serious about diplomatic engagement with Cuba. Finally, we must loosen embargo restrictions and expose Cubans to U.S. open markets, business opportunities and 21st Century living.
Colonel Lance R. Koenig (U.S. Army) wrote the second report, entitled: “Time for a New Cuba Policy.” Col. Koenig writes:
Nearly fifty years of attempts to isolate Cuba through economic sanctions, travel restrictions, and broken diplomatic relations has not provided the results the United States policy towards Cuba aimed to achieve. It is time for the United States to pursue its national interests with regard to Cuba and implement a completely new policy in order to improve regional security and economic stability in Latin America.
He recommends:
The option with the greatest possibility of success and reward for the United States is to support the Cuban people, but not the Cuban government.
Lift completely the economic embargo. Establish banking and financial relationships to facilitate the trading of goods and services between the two countries.
Lift completely the travel ban to allow not only Cuban-Americans with relatives but also all other Americans to travel to Cuba. This interaction of Americans with Cubans will help raise the awareness of Cubans about their northern neighbor.
Lift completely the travel ban to allow not only Cuban-Americans with relatives but also all other Americans to travel to Cuba. This interaction of Americans with Cubans will help raise the awareness of Cubans about their northern neighbor.
Col. Koenig also briefly addresses the issue of property restitution:
This leaves the issue of compensation for United States companies and individuals whose property was expropriated by the Cuban government. With the embargo lifted, the United States should enlist the assistance of the European Union and Canada to apply pressure to Cuba as well as to assist in negotiations with the World Trade Organization to address issues with illegally confiscated property.
“I regret that, in spite of its clear invitation, the government of Cuba has not allowed me to objectively assess the situation of torture and ill-treatment in the country by collecting first-hand evidence from all available sources,” he declared.
Nowak has made several fruitless attempts to visit the island since 2005.
Cuba has plans to split the province of Havana into two provinces in a move to make local government more efficient, state-run media said.
The division would cut travel distances for provincial employees, make services more accessible and add local political clout by giving each province its own capital.
The idea, hatched by the Cuban government and awaiting approval by the national parliament, appears to be part of Army General Raul Castro’s drive to improve the country’s productivity.
The two provinces, which have been proposed by the national government and await approval by the Cuban parliament, would be called Mayabeque and Artemisa.
[...]
The split would increase the number of provinces in Cuba by one, to 15.
U.S. federal law enforcement agencies (FBI and ICE) are hunting down al-Shabaab terrorists (an ally of al Qaeda) who illegally entered the U.S. from Kenya through Cuba, reports the New York Daily News.
al-Shabaab is an Islamic terrorist group that controls much of southern Somalia, excluding the capital, Mogadishu. It has waged an insurgency (using guerrilla warfare and terrorist tactics) against Somalia’s transitional government and its Ethiopian supporters since 2006.
About 300 Somalis were managed to be smuggled into the United States by an American, Anthony Joseph Tracy. He did this by making a deal with a Cuban diplomats in Kenya, who got the Somalis visas to visit Cuba, and then arranged for them to fly on to South America, where they were eventually smuggled across the Mexican border into the United States.
(This story was originally reported here in April, 2010.)
The title of the book is derived from the Chinese proverb: “He who rides a tiger can never get off or the tiger will devour him.”
In his book preview editorial in La Razón, Botin writes, “In the shadow of his brother Fidel, the political life of Raúl Castro has been dark and hard; he has been the executive arm of the maximum leader’s desires.”
Interesting tidbits from the editorial:
GAESA (Grupo de Administración Empresarial, S.A.), the Cuban Armed Forces’ holding company (managed by Raúl’s son-in-law Luis Alberto López Calleja), controls almost 70% of the country’s economy through transient businesses that generate almost 90% of exports, 60% of tourism revenues, around 25% of services revenues, 60% of currency revenues and more than 65% of all minor commerce in currency exchanges. The volume of annual profits surpasses $1B;
Raúl’s daughter Mariela Castro has taken the family’s monies out of the country with ease of travel as she is accompanied by her Italian husband, Paolo;
Raúl Castro visited Italy (after Fidel fell ill in 2006) to deposit millions of pesos, affirms exiled Cuban General José Quevedo;
Leninist machismo enjoys good health in Cuba as the perks of Raulistas within the military working in GAESA companies. They are a privileged class with higher incomes and a much higher standard of living not only to the civilian population but to their own comrades in arms serving a strictly military function in locations far away from the resorts.
Jerry Bremer, C.E.O. of Criminal Justice International Associates (a global risk mitigation firm headquartered in Miami, Florida) asks in his piece, “Cuba’s Agenda in Latin America Remains Clearly Nebulous,” via Mexidata.info, whether Cuba is a conventional military threat to anyone, which perhaps they are not, however. In the intelligence sphere, especially in Latin America, they apparently are so:
The history of Cuba’s Castro regime shows that they have trained thousands of communist guerrillas and terrorists, and sponsored violent acts of aggression and subversion in most democratic nations of the southwestern hemisphere. U.S. government studies within the intelligence community documented a total of 3,043 international terrorist incidents in the decade of 1968 to 1978. Within that study, “over 25 percent occurred in Latin America.”
[...]
Recent reports by the U.S. DIA [Defense Intelligence Agency] show that Cuba has been expanding intelligence operations in the Middle East and South Asia.
[...]
…Cuba’s current intelligence and spy apparatus has been described and reported to be an active “contingency of very well-trained, organized and financed agents.”
[...]
Cuba has also maintained a well-organized and ruthless intelligence presence within Mexico, as have the Russians. Much of their activity involved in U.S. interests that include recruiting disloyal U.S. military, government, and private sector specialists.
Stratforissued a special report on Venezuela’s armed forces in early May, whereby the private global intelligence company opines:
Controlling Venezuela requires controlling oil and the armed forces, and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has managed to do both for more than a decade. Challenges to this control have emerged, however, such as enormous debt at the state-owned oil company and dissatisfaction in the armed forces at the role of Cubans in the South American country’s military. Still, Chavez’s hold appears secure so long as the oil revenues keep flowing.
And on the Cubanization of the Venezuelan armed forces:
The salary increase for the military also comes amid rising public criticism of the politicization and so-called Cubanization of the Venezuelan military. Former Venezuelan Brig. Gen. Antonio Rivero claimed the “the presence and meddling of Cuban soldiers” in the armed forces prompted his April retirement. Rivero said Cubans were operating at some of the highest levels in the Venezuelan military, delivering intelligence, communications, weapons and other training for the troops. He also denounced the extent to which Chavez has undermined military professionalism, and complained of the government’s move to expand its civilian militia. In the same address in which he announced the salary increase for the military, Chavez addressed Rivero’s complaints, saying he was saddened by the general’s attempt to draw attention to himself. Chavez also defended his decision to embrace the Cuban military presence by criticizing previous Venezuelan administrations for allowing the U.S. military to staff the offices of the country’s Army Command Headquarters and manage Venezuelan state secrets.1
While the opposition is eager to exploit the public relations sensation of a general condemning Chavez’s military policy, retiring generals and the Cuban links into the Venezuelan military are not exactly startling developments in Venezuela. The deep integration of Cuban forces in the Venezuelan military has been an open secret in recent years. By having enlisted soldiers and trainers percolate throughout the armed services at virtually all levels, the Chavez government has been able to tap Cuba’s security and intelligence expertise to keep tabs on dissidents and quash any potential threats to the government. For its part, Cuba benefits from being able to influence the policies of a regional, oil-producing heavyweight in South America. As Chavez’s political and economic vulnerabilities have increased, so have the opportunities for Cuba to entrench itself in Venezuela.2
This symbiotic relationship saw its clearest manifestation with the July 2008 passage of the Organic Law of the National Armed Forces. The law redefined the Venezuelan Armed Forces from a politically nonaligned professional institution (as stated in the 1999 constitution) to a patriotic, popular and anti-imperialist body, as described in the legislation. Chavez, not wanting to be caught off guard again by his generals as he was during an April 2002 coup attempt, created the law to develop a military primarily tasked with protecting and defending the regime from internal threats. The Cuban government, wanting to ensure Venezuelan dependency on Cuban security, is believed to have had a role in one of the more controversial articles in the law. This provision allows for foreign nationals (i.e., Cubans) who have graduated from Venezuelan defense institutions to earn the rank of officer in the Venezuelan armed forces.3
Another clause in the law forces officers into retirement if they are not promoted after two years. Though such provisions are common in many militaries, Caracas has used it with unusual frequency as a tool to remove potential dissenters. Under this system, political allegiance can easily supersede military merit when it comes to awarding promotions or forcing resignations. Cuban advisers, who have been tasked with identifying localized threats from within the armed forces, are believed to have significant influence on these decisions.4
Chavez recently remarked in Havana that he felt like he was “one more Cuban.” But many Venezuelans do not like the Cubans’ methods or their growing presence in the country, and Cuban integration in the Venezuelan armed forces appears to have alienated several high-ranking members of the military. Chavez, however, has knowingly incurred this risk, and undermining powerful military leaders was likely one of his key goals. Problematic generals can be forced into retirement while the Cubans closely scrutinize the remaining military elite, who are given perks to keep them loyal to the government.5
While this comes at the cost of considerable expertise and professionalism, Chavez’s goal is to ensure that the upper ranks of the military lack the operational control to challenge the president. Mid-tier members of the military probably worry the Venezuelan president more, however. After all, Chavez was a lieutenant colonel with the charisma to rally a sizable portion of the military and lower classes around him in his 1992 coup attempt and victorious 1998 presidential campaign. As long as he is the one occupying the presidency, Chavez does not wish to see any lieutenant colonels following in his footsteps. Since Chavez lacks the same reach and oversight with the lower ranks of the military than he has with the generals, pay raises are a way to help mitigate potential threats emanating from below.6
Notes
1. Stratfor. “Special Report: Venezuela’s Control of the Armed Forces.” 3 May 2010.
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. Ibid.
6. Ibid.
(Image: Venezuelan soldiers participate in parade with Russian arms. AFP/Getty Images.)
The report distinguishes between discotecas (which are discothèques), while discotembas are bars and public gatherings playing 1970s disco hits and attracting a graying crowd of dancers. Temba is Cuban slang for a middle-aged person who’s a bit past his or her prime.
Cuba’s communist authorities have shown more tolerance for American pop music once frowned upon.
Army General Raul Castro held a meeting with Jaime Cardinal Ortega y Alamino of Havana and Archbishop Dionisio Garcia (president of the Cuban bishops’ conference), to discuss issues including religious liberty and freedom of expression for political dissidents.
Wednesday’s talks touched on the sensitive issue of imprisoned political dissidents, Church sources said, without providing details.
The Vatican’s foreign minister, Archbishop Dominique Memberti, is due to visit the island next month amid increasing economic difficulties and international attention on human rights abuses in Cuba. Memberti is expected to press authorities to release political prisoners.
(Image: Clockwise from left — Army Gen. Raul Castro, an unidentified Cuban government official, Archbishop Dionisio Garcia and Jaime Cardinal Ortega. Agence France-Presse.)
The report presents evidence that the FARC moves freely in Cuba and Venezuela with precise information on guerrilla camps and supposed alliances to export the Bolivarian project in Colombia.
Moreover, there are 28 FARC encampments and 1,500 FARC men in Venezuela.
In relation to the FARC’s presence in Havana, the document identifies the geopolitical and geoeconomic activities of the group, e.g. in August 2007 there were solidarity brigades with the Cuban people and meetings in which representatives of the Latin American left as well as FARC delegates Liliana López Palacio, alias Olga Lucía Marín and Orlay Jurado Palomino, alias Hermes Aguilera were present.
(Image: Ivan Marquez, a member of the FARC central command, with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez during talks in Caracas, November 2007. By JusticeforColombia.org)
El País reportson the Castro government investigating corporate scandals that are plaguing the regime:
A legion of 4,000 auditors and financial officers currently investigate the internals of 750 Cuban companies, which 20% operate in the island. This is a huge anti-corruption crackdown that is unprecedented, but without justification; in recent years, in the Cuba of Fidel and Raul Castro, cases of economic crimes, petty corruption, influence peddling and embezzlement have increased, and each time the actors reach the highest levels.
Frank Norton, a Florida real estate executive, writes in the Gainsville Times about what he and his wife experienced in their recent trip to Cuba:
Today, the Cuban people have lost all personal freedom, lost all personal property and now occupy government-owned, rotting, worn-out buildings that are crumbling around them. There is no pride of ownership, little pride of country; the communist government has taken much of this away from the once thriving Garden of Eden. Alas, poor Babylon.
[...]
Today’s Cuba is run by a small band of grumpy old men, distant and out of touch with the modern world and modern civilizations. These men, victorious in their waltz (not fight) into Havana on New Year’s Eve 1959, continue to celebrate their victory 51 years later while the spoils (Cuba) crumble around them.
Victorious yes; winners no! The past is past. Today’s reality is underemployment for 11 million people, living in huts, widespread poverty, rolling shortages and economic collapse. This Garden of Eden is overgrown with tangled twisted jungle and the biggest jungles are in the tangled minds of grumpy old men.
Independence will be difficult.
Is Cuba lost? Time has perhaps passed by Cuban independence; the generation that fled Cuba to America is 50 years older, the passionate revolutionaries, future liberators of a communist Cuba, are now dead.
Will their children have the same passion and drive to liberate, the desire to reclaim their country? Or will they, as American citizens, see their heritage as just a sidebar to their lives in their adopted country?
Who will lead Cuba back to the promised land? Who will be passionate enough to liberate Cuba? And bring it back into the 20th century, much less the 21st?
In the museum La Revolution, we saw a quote by a 1959 Castro that is a haunting message even for today: “For the first time in the history of this country, the people and the government have left aside the rich side and have joined the poor side.”
Italian journalist and international criminal issues expert Luca Rastello has written the book, Yo Soy el Mercado: Teoría, Métodos y Estilo de Vida del Perfecto Narcotraficante (I Am the Market: Theory, Method and Lifestyle of the Perfect Narcotrafficker), that details the ingenious strategies Colombian and Mexican narcotraffickers have implemented for years to grow their business in transporting tons of cocaine. Spanish daily La Razón has published an excerpt (pdf) of the book; describing his work as “a thrilling story about how to transport cocaine from Latin America to the United States and Europe. A business in which the Castros’ Cuba very discretely participates in.”
Former Chilean leftist Senator Carlos Ominami (whose adoptive son is Marco Enríquez-Ominami, a Socialist who ran as an independent in the recent Chilean presidential election supported by Max Marambio) said the distancing of the Cuban regime with businessman Max Marambio (background here and here) is due to a “settling of scores” after the departure of Fidel Castro from power, in an interview he gave to The Clinic.
Ominami adds: ”I think what happened to Max (Marambio) falls within the same process that took as its latest victims Carlos Lage, Felipe Perez Roque and Gustavo Ramirez and (Rogelio) Acevedo, who is none other than the last living guerrilla with Che in the Sierra Maestra.”
He goes on further to say:
I think there are political reasons for the settling of scores. Fidel and Raul are not going to fight ever because they know that the minute they do, the Cuban revolution collapses. But they have allowed the existence of political power subsystems that will. And it is clear there are two lines: the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) and Ministry of Interior (MININT). In Cuba, both institutional leaderships have troops and those troops have rivalries. MININT Special Troops have rivalries with the FAR and finally what you’re experiencing is a history of that conflict.
Dario Delgado (left), Juan Escalona (center) and Raul Castro (right). Image: PL
A handover ceremony occurred today in the Palace of the Revolution where Darío Delgado took charge as the new Cuban Attorney General. Outgoing prosecutor Juan Escalona held the post for seventeen years. In attendance where Army General Raul Castro, José Ramón Machado Ventura, Ricardo Alarcón (president of the National Assembly), Gladys Bejerano (Vice-President, Council of State) and other high-ranking government officials.
Roberto Baudrand with his wife and daughter. Image: La Segunda
15APR2010 @ 1128: Roberto Baudrand was sitting beside a bed with his head on the nightstand and at his side were several open remedies boxes when his body was found by a company official, Chilean consul and Cuban police, La Tercerareported this morning. His family rejected the suicide theory, claiming he had a heart attack and was taking medication for his heart problems.
It looks like Baudrand isn’t the only death. Former El Nuevo Herald reporter Wilfredo Cancio Isla revealed in A Mano Limpia (a Miami-based public affairs television program) that according to reliable sources, Ramiro del Río—a Cuban who also worked for one of Max Marambio’s companies under investigation was interrogated by Cuban authorities—died earlier this month in a Cuban prison.
15APR2010 @ 1438: An attorney for Alimentos Río Zaza, the Max Marambio-Cuban government owned food company, ruled out Roberto Baudrand was the object of “persecution” by the Cuban government in reference to the interrogations he was subjected to by the Cuban Prosecutor’s Office.
15APR2010 @ 1452: El Mostrador is reporting Max Marambio’s fall from the good graces of the Cuban government was due to the overpricing of products sold on the island and the government is holding him culpable. A secret report from the Cuban Communist Party (PCC) that the daily had access to details Alimentos Río Zaza committed fraud. There is a link in this unfolding incident to the Cuban aviation corruption scandal. Ofelia Liptak, commercial director of Río Zaza, was one of the Cubans detained and is married to Division General Rogelio Acevedo González, who was sacked as president of the Civil Aeronautical Institute in early March, for being involved in an embezzlement operation.
15APR2010 @ 1631: Reutersreports the preliminary results from an autopsy indicate Roberto Baudrand died of a heart attack, according to sources close to the case.
15APR2010 @ 2313: The Chilean government rejects the cause of death as a heart attack. Chile’s Foreign Minister Alfredo Moreno said: “We have verbal information of the causes does not match what has been published, but it’s not definitive and it is not formal either and, therefore, we will not give any information about that until the autopsy is complete and we have a formal response from the Cuban authorities.”
Roberto Baudrand with his wife (left). Image: La Tercera
The Chilean government has asked Cuba for an exhaustive investigation into the death of a Chilean businessman under strange circumstances, informed Chile’s Foreign Minister Alfredo Moreno, EFE is reporting. Cuban authorities had prevented businessman Roberto Baudrand from leaving the island, who was found dead in his apartment yesterday in Havana (a possible suicide per La Tercera). Baudrand managed a food company jointly-owned by Max Marambio (also a Chilean businessman, who was a close friend of Fidel Castro and having become a Lt. Colonel in Cuba’s elite Special Troops under Fidel’s command) and the Cuban government, which was the object of investigation whereby several Cuban employees were detained. It seems that another corruption scandal in Cuba is unraveling. On April 8, high ranking officials from the Chilean chancery met with the council minister in the Cuban embassy in Chile “to be consulted over the situation and solicit pertinent charges,” signaled the ministry.
Today’s The Economist addresses the Cuban government’s failed agricultural reform:
TWO years ago last month Raúl Castro formally took over as Cuba’s president from his convalescent elder brother, Fidel. The switch raised hopes of reforms, especially of the communist country’s long dysfunctional agriculture. But change has been glacial. Official figures show that in the first two months of this year deliveries to the capital’s food markets were a third less than forecast. Nobody starves, but hard-currency supermarkets go for weeks without basics such as milk and bread.
What has gone wrong? Cuba’s state-owned farms are massively inefficient, and rarely provide more than 20% of the country’s food needs. Three hurricanes in 2008 made matters worse. Raúl Castro has acknowledged the problem, and introduced some changes. Idle state land has been leased to private farmers. The government has raised the guaranteed prices it pays for produce. Farmers can now legally buy their own basic equipment such as shovels and boots, without having to wait for government handouts.
[...]
But Raúl continues to move very cautiously. So Cuba will buy much of its food from foreign suppliers. Foreign exchange, never abundant—partly because of the American economic embargo—is again in short supply. The world recession cut Cuba’s earnings from nickel and tourism last year. Imports fell last year by almost 40%.
A foreign businessman in Havana says there have been signs of a further squeeze this year. Transfers abroad by foreign businesses have been blocked, or delayed, for months. The Spanish owner of Vima, a food importer which supplied many hotels and state-run restaurants, made the mistake of publicly criticising delays in getting paid. His contracts were promptly revoked. Foreign companies have been warned that the government may stop selling them staples, such as meat and rice, for their staff canteens. “They told us bluntly that their priority is feeding the general population, that the situation is very serious, and that we should make our own arrangements,” says a manager of one joint-venture.
Kenneth Chandler’s (a former editor and publisher of the New York Post) op-ed on the catastrophe in the making for Cuba.
Havana is a city of sorrow — a once elegant and prosperous capital brought to despair by 51 years of deliberate neglect and isolation. A country that has been plundered by a succession of foreign powers, homegrown dictators and mobsters imported from America now languishes in a bizarre time warp where little has changed in more than half a century.
Its people go about their daily routines bereft of consumer goods, nutritious foods, meaningful jobs or adequate housing — most of them born after the revolution that swept Castro to power in 1959 and now, thanks to rigid censorship, largely conditioned to accept their impoverished lot.
To listen to Castro’s cronies — those among the political and business elite whose loyalty is secured with perks unavailable to ordinary Cubans — the economic situation is solely the fault of the US embargo imposed after the revolution.
More thoughtful Cubans discreetly offer a different explanation: They blame Fidel’s feckless experiments with communism — his initial seizure of $25 billion worth of private property from Cubans and the nationalization of all businesses, forcing the middle class to flee to Miami; his bizarre decision to send 300,000 Cubans out of a population of only 11 million to fight wars in Africa in the 1980s; his Cold War alliance with the Russians that left his country bankrupt and saddled with antiquated technology when the Soviet Union collapsed.
Babalú Blog has posted a video report from Sean Hannity’s America on Fox News Channel which exposes the Cuban government’s alleged chemical and biological weapons program.
The source of the allegation is former chief of Medical Services of the Cuban Armed Forces, Colonel Roberto Ortega Morales, who served in that post from 1984 to 1994. Ortega first made his assertions in an interview with El Nuevo Herald and the Miami public affairs television program – A Mano Limpia, in 2007.
Also interviewed is Dr. Manuel Cereijo, a lecturer of Engineering at the University of Miami, who has written about Cuban telecommunications and Cuba’s national security threat to the United States.
A demonstrator, second from right, is grabbed by unidentified men during a march organized by dissidents to commemorate the Human Rights Day in Havana. 20091210 (AP Photo)
Government supporters screaming insults and slogans broke up two tiny International Human Rights Day marches Thursday and chased away a British diplomat onlooker, pounding on his car as he drove away.
Hundreds of enraged Cubans confronted a march led by Yusnaimi Jorge, wife of Darcy Ferrer, a black physician and veteran dissident who had headed demonstrations every Dec. 10 but has been behind bars since this summer for buying black market cement.
“This street is Fidel’s,” the crowd yelled as a group of men in plainclothes, believed to be state security agents, ringed the demonstrators, eventually placing them in unmarked vehicles.
The pro-government crowd also pursued observer Chris Stimpson, second secretary of the British Embassy, shouting at him until he fled to his car, then ringing the vehicle and banging on it. He returned to his office without further incident.
Cuban President Raul Castro walks with Nicaraguan First Lady Rosario Murillo upon arrival in Managua on June 29, 2009. (Image: HO/AFP/Getty Images)
Luis Hernández Ojeda, Cuba’s ambassador to Nicaragua, was ordered back by Havana because of a “serious incident” with Nicaraguan First Lady Rosario Murillo (who is also the official spokesperson for President Daniel Ortega).
According to El Nuevo Diario, Murillo mistreated Hernández with disdain, having used off-color language.
This is the third incident (the other two with Venezuela) within two years, whereby “discrepancies” with Murillo have caused ambassadors to be ordered back.
The report “shows how the Raúl Castro government has relied in particular on the Criminal Code offense of “dangerousness,” which allows authorities to imprison individuals before they have committed any crime, on the suspicion that they are likely to commit an offense in the future. This “dangerousness” provision is overtly political, defining as “dangerous” any behavior that contradicts Cuba’s socialist norms.”
Here are segments of the executive summary:
In July 2006, Fidel Castro handed control of the Cuban government over to his brother Raúl Castro. As the new head of state, Raúl Castro inherited a system of abusive laws and institutions, as well as responsibility for hundreds of political prisoners arrested during his brother’s rule. Rather than dismantle this repressive machinery, Raúl Castro has kept it firmly in place and fully active. Scores of political prisoners arrested under Fidel Castro continue to languish in Cuba’s prisons. And Raúl Castro’s government has used draconian laws and sham trials to incarcerate scores more who have dared to exercise their fundamental freedoms.
Raúl Castro’s government has relied in particular on a provision of the Cuban Criminal Code that allows the state to imprison individuals before they have committed a crime, on the suspicion that they might commit an offense in the future. This “dangerousness” provision is overtly political, defining as “dangerous” any behavior that contradicts socialist norms. The most Orwellian of Cuba’s laws, it captures the essence of the Cuban government’s repressive mindset, which views anyone who acts out of step with the government as a potential threat and thus worthy of punishment.
…
While this report documents a systematic pattern of repression, it does not intend to suggest that there are no outlets for dissent whatsoever in Cuba. The last three years have, for example, witnessed the emergence of an independent Cuban blogosphere, critical lyrics by musicians, and most recently a series of government-organized public meetings to reflect on Cuban socialism.
…
The Cuban government has for years refused to recognize the legitimacy of independent human rights monitoring and has adamantly refused to allow international monitors, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross and international nongovernmental organizations like Human Rights Watch, to visit the island and investigate human rights conditions. In researching this report, Human Rights Watch made repeated written requests to the Raúl Castro government for meetings with authorities and formal authorization to conduct a fact-finding mission to the island. As in the past, the Cuban government did not respond to any of our requests.
As a result, Human Rights Watch decided to conduct a fact-finding mission to Cuba without official permission in June and July 2009. During this trip, Human Rights Watch researchers conducted extensive interviews in seven of the island’s fourteen provinces. We also conducted numerous interviews via telephone from New York City. In total, we carried out more than 60 in-depth interviews with human rights defenders, journalists, former political prisoners, family members of current political prisoners, members of the clergy, trade unionists, and other Cuban citizens.
Army General Raul Castro has taken his time to make “structural changes,” which have arrived, e.g. the rationing booklet (libreta de racionamiento) has its days numbered.
It is foreseen that Cubans’ desperation will generate conflicts but also the adoption of other measures such as currency unification.
To halt such an impact, the government has asked the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution (Comités de Defensa de la Revolución (CDR) to prepare neighbors for upcoming hard times.
CDR’s will conduct a census of resident workers and increase surveillance to prevent illegalities, i.e. renting out rooms without a state license or sell aliments on the black market.
Click here to read the rest of El Correo Digital article.
The UAE and Cuba signed two agreements to enhance political consultations and boost economic, commercial and technical cooperation between the two countries.
The agreements were signed by Shaikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, UAE Foreign Minister, and Cuba’s Foreign Trade and Investment Minister Rodrigues Dias, in Havana.
The consultations between Shaikh Abdullah and his counterpart focused on investment opportunities in the tourism, trade and renewable energy sectors in both countries.
Cubans began taking a hard look this week at entrenched customs like food rationing, pilfering on the job, cradle-to-grave subsidies and black market trading in a national debate called by Army General Raul Castro. Authorities have circulated a ten-point agenda for thousands of open-ended meetings over the next month at work places, universities and community organizations to “rethink” Cuban socialism, focused on the economic themes highlighted by Castro in a speech to the National Assembly in August.
Raul Castro says Cuba will cut spending on education and health care, weakening the building blocks of its communist system to try to revive a floundering economy.
But Castro vows that anyone waiting for fundamental political change when he and his brother Fidel are gone is “doomed to failure.”
He told parliament Saturday, “I wasn’t elected president to return capitalism to Cuba or surrender the revolution.”
He said he was “elected to defend, build and perfect socialism, not destroy it.”
UPDATE: Full text of Raul’s speech before the National Assembly whereby the Army General announced the celebration of the VI Party Congress, which will take place next year.
Moreover, he also declared that a National Conference will take place shortly in which a new Politburo, Central Committee and Secretariat will be named before the party congress takes place.
It looks like the ousted president of Honduras reportedly asked President Obama to revoke the diplomatic visas of members of interim President Roberto Micheletti’s de facto government.
NightWatch, a nightly executive intelligence recap produced by AFCEA, sagely opines on US blunderous policy toward the Honduran political crisis:
The US bullying of Micheletti risks a blowback effect in which he becomes the latest Latin American hero to stand up to the US. If the Bolivarians experience such an epiphany, they and the Cubans will turn against the US Secretary of State on this issue as fast as a serpent.
Imagine the socialists and communists supporting the free enterprise democrats in Honduras against the US; almost as crazy as the US State Department aligning with the socialists and communists against one of America’s most steadfast allies in Latin America. That would be condign punishment for misrepresenting the facts.
Heretofore, the Carter Administration was renowned for beating up US allies over human rights violations while coddling the communists and socialists, even inviting them to the White House.
Readers would be justified in suspecting that some people at State are covering up their judgmental blunders, indicated by the Department’s persistent distortion of the facts of the Honduran situation. The evidence is overwhelming — and not refuted by Zelaya or the State Department — that Zelaya attempted a political coup to usurp the Honduran constitution by means of a referendum that had been ruled unconstitutional by the Honduran Supreme Court.
His gambit failed when the armed forces refused to carry out illegal orders to distribute ballot boxes for the referendum and when the Congress and Supreme Court staged a successful political counter-coup by ordering the army to give him the boot.
If State could commit to rule of law, it might support the coming election in November which is on track and on schedule as the best mechanism for taking the pulse of the Honduran electorate. It might even suggest accelerating the election timetable.
For now a sharply declining number of Hondurans seem to care that Zelaya is absent. They have more important and immediate problems, such as survival.
Will Havana exercise its influence over Caracas' ties to Hezbollah at the behest of Tel Aviv?
La Nueva Cuba reports on Army General Raul Castro’s African tour (Algeria, Angola and Namibia), which included thereafter a July 22 visit to Brazil.
His visit to the South American country has sparked interest among political observers/analysts and Western intelligence agencies.
Castro visited the Northeastern city of Salvador de Bahía, according to newswires, in a layover return from Angola, which was confirmed by the Cuban Embassy in Brasilia, AFP affirms.
The Cuban successor’s visit to African countries was Havana’s desperate attempt to negotiate an urgent need for loans to alleviate pressure from foreign transnationals claiming access to frozen accounts in Cuba since December 2008.
Tel Aviv wants Havana to exercise its influence over Caracas with the intention of impeding terrorist activities in Latin America and safe havens in Venezuela.
Israel considers Cuba capable of controlling Chavez’s conduct in regards to the subject of fundamentalist terrorism in Latin America.
La Nueva Cuba’s lead story today informs of reports the newspaper received from within the island that “Russian personnel has been in Cuba for several months working on modernizing SIGINT operations in the old Lourdes surveillance and monitoring facility south of Havana,” (complex is center right in Google Map above) which was closed in 2001 by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The report goes on to say, “both Cuba and Venezuela will benefit with access to some of the information obtained from Moscow…Some of the monitoring operations has been activated and work is underway to modernize the installation with the most advanced Russian technology available. The amplification and improvement of these installations operated by Russia are part of a project of rearming and modernization of Russian armed forces and the goal of completion by 2011.”
Furthermore, “The new operations could include military sections dedicated to hacking or computer systems espionage with a capacity to neutralize U.S. military networks in the case of emergency and sensitive situations emerging from a military conflict or political necessity to pressure a weakened United States susceptible to political pressure.”
A permanent concern for Raul Castro’s government is how will it sustain feeding the populace as aliments continue to diminish due to shortages and the costly purchases of increasing imports, which poses a security dilemma for the regime.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Office of Global Analysis published a report last year titled: “Cuba
Avoiding a social explosion is foremost on the minds of the Cuban nomenklatura. "El Maleconazo" which occurred on the streets of Havana's famous seawall in August, 1994 was the most significant demonstration of social unrest in the island.
A chorus of those sympathetic to the Cuban regime and/or part of the nomenklatura are voicing their opinion about the need to reform Cuba’s system or else social instability caused by a lack of change to the status quo will lead to political destabilization through violence.
A member of said chorus is Ignacio Ramonet (penned an autobiography of Fidel Castro and was editor-in-chief of Le Monde Diplomatique) who wrote a revealing article last week giving a purview of the current situation in Cuba.
Ramonet states: “Raul Castro and his team have dedicated themselves to three pressing problems: food, public transportation, and housing. Three domains where shortages, poverty, and dysfunctions favor permanent unrest of the population.”
Still Life with Skull. Painting by Philippe de Champaigne (1602-1674)
Rumors swirl, yet again, Fidel Castro is gravely ill. See reports here, here and here.
This generation of rumors has happened in the past, however, there is certain credence to the rumor.
The online cultural magazine Cuba Encuentro was told by well informed sources, who asked to remain anonymous: “Castro’s life cycle seems totally exhausted and his state is irreversibile.”
These sources affirm, “It has been more than a month that he does not get up from bed,” adding “Fidel has had more than one grave encounter with his brother Ra
Despite grandiose talk, this is not a particularly threatening flotilla: The Russian nuclear-powered missile cruiser Peter the Great is joined by an antisubmarine destroyer, a fuel tanker and a tugboat that is on hand in case of breakdowns. “Militarily, the trip is virtually meaningless,” says Jan van Tol, a recently retired U.S. Navy captain and senior fellow at the D.C.-based Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. “A lot of it has to do with the credibility of the navy involved,” Tol says. “I don’t think [Nicaragua's] Daniel Ortega, [Cuba's] Raul Castro or [Venezuela's] Hugo Chavez are asking the Russians, ‘How long would it take for you to be here if we needed help?’ ”
The Russians are not sending their third-string ships on this diplomatic mission; those selected to visit the hemisphere are some of the best surface ships they have left after a decade of neglect. “Peter the Great was one of the better ships the Soviets had. It was quite a powerful ship for its time,” says van Tol. “They probably were taken in for significant refitting and rehabilitation to make the trip.”
As humble as the fleet might seem from a military point of view, the real mission is powerful for its diplomatic symbolism
Cuban police have detained 100 dissidents this week in Cuba to avoid their participation in marches commemorating the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights according to an announcement made by the Cuban Commission of Human Rights – Comisi
Cuban police patrol cars stand along Havana Malecon seafront. Image: Getty/AFP
Carta de Cuba alerts that the Cuban capital is constantly surveilled by patrolling soldiers and police, whom traverse municipalities to impose order reports the independent press during the last couple of weeks. In the municipalities of San Miguel del Padr
Russia could include Cuba and Venezuela into a satellite navigation system originally designed for missile targeting by the Soviet military, the head of Russia’s space agency said Wednesday.
“We discussed the theme of joint use of the Glonass satellite navigation system,” Roskosmos chief Anatoly Perminov was quoted by RIA Novosti news agency as saying, referring to talks with the authorities in Venezuela.
Perminov said similar negotiations had been held with Cuban authorities and that Moscow and Havana had talked “in a preliminary way about the possibility of building a space centre in Cuba with our assistance,” RIA Novosti reported.
Glonass was developed for missile targeting by the Soviet army in the 1980s to compete with the GPS system used by the United States. The project is expected to be completed, with 24 satellites in orbit, by 2009.
Glonass is currently administered by the Russian defence ministry.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin last week boosted financing for the long-delayed project by 1.85 billion euros (2.61 billion dollars). Glonass also aims to compete with the European Union’s Galileo system.
Russia has boosted military cooperation with Venezuela in recent months, reviving memories of tensions between the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War in the Caribbean region.
In a move seen as a direct response to US plans to set up missile defence installations in the Czech Republic and Poland, Russia this month announced it was dispatching warships and long-range bombers to Venezuela for exercises
Mara Salvatrucha gang members arrested by Honduran special police. (Photo: Reuters)
Several challenges will be posed to a transitional government once Castroism fades from existence (elements will certainly remain) and a semblance of democracy emerges. Organized crime will be one of them, particularly in the streets of Havana and other cities throughout the island, perpetrated by gangs.
The lessons learned (from strategy and tactics to combat) of the current gang and organized crime phenomena evolving in Central America and Mexico proves invaluable to a future transitional government in how to confront these internal security issues.
Totalitarian dictatorships still exist and, as a matter of fact, they are very much alive in Latin America. Democracies throughout the Americas must immediately address their governments’ counterintelligence missions, and their strategic long and short range vision to monitor aggression and other forms of insurgency within their homelands.
Cuba’s intelligence and spy apparatus has been described as a “contingency of very well-trained, organized and financed agents.” Too, President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has adopted the previous Soviet-styled Cuban intelligence service (DGI) as his model for Venezuela’s security service, known as the DISIP, utilizing Cuban intelligence counterparts and advisors.
What is the history of Cuba’s communist trained spies?
Cuba has trained thousands of communist guerrillas and terrorists, and has sponsored violent acts of aggression and subversion in most democratic nations of the southwestern hemisphere. U.S. government studies within the intelligence community documented a total of 3,043 international terrorist incidents in the decade of 1968 to 1978. Within that study, “over 25 percent occurred in Latin America.”
Recent reports are that Cuba has been expanding intelligence operations in the Middle East and South Asia. This reported by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.
Cuba has consistently maintained a well-organized and “ruthless” intelligence presence within Mexico, as have the Russians. Much of their activity involved in U.S. interests that include recruiting disloyal U.S. military, government, and “private sector specialists. Read the rest of this entry »
In late December 1959, nearly a year after Cuban dictator Fulgencio Batista had been run out the country by a movement that had a goal of restoring the 1940 Cuban constitution, Fidel Castro was tightening his grip.
At the time, Armando Valladares was a 22-year-old government bureaucrat at the Post Office Savings Bank. One day a group from the Communist Party showed up in his office and put a sign on his desk that read “If Fidel is a communist, put me on the list. He’s got the right idea.”
Castro had not yet made public his communist intentions. But Mr. Valladares says that “the sign was part of the campaign by the party and by Fidel to prepare the population for communism, which most knew little about. The idea was that since Fidel had already made his name synonymous with the Cuban messiah, he must be right about communism.”
Mr. Valladares told his visitors that he didn’t want that sign on his desk. “Five or six days later, in the wee hours of the morning, they came to my house. My mother’s room was closest to the front door so she heard the knock and got up to see who was there. When she opened the door, the men pushed her out of the way and rushed into the house. I awoke with a machine gun against my temple.”
The young Valladares had a lot of company. Thousands were being rounded up. Some waited months for their trials. Many others were immediately marched before firing squads.
Mr. Valladares got his day in court within the week. The judge, he says, sat with his feet up on the desk reading a comic book and making jokes. The search of his home had produced “no evidence, no weapons, no propaganda opposing the state.” Nevertheless he was convicted as a potential conspirator against the Revolution and sentenced to 30 years. His cell mates applauded the decision, because the only other possible sentence was the death penalty.
The number of political prisoners in Cuba has fallen in the past six months, according to a new report by the island’s main human rights group.
[...]
But the report also says that the authorities are continuing to take a tough line against dissidents.
It says that any change in the human rights situation remains “unlikely”.
There are an estimated 219 political prisoners currently held in Cuban jails, 15 fewer than in January this year.
But according to the Cuban Commission for Human Rights and National Reconciliation (CCHRNR) this does not represent a fundamental change in the treatment of dissidents under Raul Castro.
Instead, the latest half yearly report by this illegal but tolerated organisation points to a change in tactics, with a marked increase in what it calls arbitrary systematic detentions.
Instead of high profile arrests and imprisonment, opponents are picked up by police, often prior to planned meetings or rallies.
They are then released without charge, usually within 24 hours. [ad#demo-advert]
La Razon reports on the creation of a super-ministry charged with overseeing the production of food (a vital national security issue for Cuba):
While rumors of a next government crisis runs insistently throughout Havana, the name of Ulises Rosales del Toro is beginning to be heard with greater impetus among diplomats and journalists. Rosales del Toro is the current Minister of Sugar, a two star general, 66 years-old with a brilliant service record for the regime.
According to unofficial sources, it seems Rosales del Toro will play a vital role in the restructuring of the Cuban government once Raul Castro sends the plan to parliament (National Assembly) before the end of the year.
“I know what you know,” responded Vice-Minister of Sugar Juan Godefroy to a query made by a US news agency interested in the role of that ministry in the unification of four ministerial posts that are linked to the production of food in the country.
Expected unification
Even though there is speculation without official confirmation point to Rosales del Toro, former chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, as the center of the expected unification or reorganization of the Ministries of Agriculture, Sugar, Food and Fishery.
The restructuring of the departments linked to the production of food which is a national security issue in Cuba began with sharing by municipalities of “many decisions that have been up to now made centrally in the Ministry of Agriculture,” opined Cuban economists who asked to remain anonymous.
“Unification of decision making” in the sector will be reached through that path but they declined to advance the names of who will head the new structure.
Houston Chronicle reports on the Cubans’ apathetic feeling and prices spiraling upward even for a mango yet the Cuban government has a difference view:
Cubans face economic difficulties, but “there are no tanks on the street corners,” said Miguel Alvarez, chief adviser to Ricardo Alarcon, president of Cuba’s National Assembly. Cuba, Alvarez said, is a “stable country, a tranquil country.“
United Aircraft Corp., the Russian state aerospace group, and OAO Aviaexport agreed with Cuba’s Civil Aviation Institute to sell the Caribbean nation airplanes and set up service centers for local clients.
A memorandum of understanding was signed last week during Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin’s visit to Cuba to deliver models including OAO Tupolev Co.’s Tu-204 mid-range planes and Antonov An- 148 regional jets, Russia’s Industry and Trade Ministry said in a statement on its Web site today.
Russian drugmakers OAO Pharmstandard and OOO Pharmapark also agreed with Cuba’s Center of Genetic Engineering and Biotechnologies to cooperate on producing vaccines in Russia, according to the statement.
Radio Netherlands examines Russian interest in restoring its military base in Cuba and the Cuban government’s lack of interest:
Cuba itself has already made it fairly clear that there’s no question of a renewed Russian military colonialism. The country is still sore at the fact that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought an end to the liberal flow of funds from Moscow. And the leadership in Havana hasn’t forgotten that ten years later, without any consultation, Russia ended to its last military presence in Cuba: the vast intelligence base in Torrens, better known as “Lourdes”, from which legend has it a pin could be heard falling anywhere in the southern United States, and all US communications could be tapped.
Russia is resuming its presence in such an important geostrategic area as Cuba and Latin America, Andrey Klimov, deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, told RIA-Novosti. He was speaking about the results of head of the Russian Security Council Nikolay Patrushev’s visit to Cuba.
Klimov believes that Russia is resuming collaboration with its good old partner. He added that “Cuba has a very important geostrategic situation”. He thinks it’s right that Russia as a major power should be present there in the spheres of economy and security. The Duma deputy did not rule out that Russian military presence on the island may also be considered. “Russia is quite likely to take a decision on military presence in Cuba in response to the deployment of American ABM systems next to the Russian border,” the deputy said.
However, according to another cable from Ria Novosti:
Cuban leadership has no intentions to resume military cooperation with Russia after a surprise closure of a Russian electronic listening post in Lourdes in 2001, a high-ranking Cuban diplomat said on Saturday.
After Russian Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin visited Cuba on July 30-31, the council issued a statement saying: “Russia and Cuba are set to make consistent efforts to restore longtime ties in all spheres of cooperation and to expand and strengthen them.”
“The Cuban leadership is ready to cooperate with Russia in civilian sectors but it is unlikely to revive bilateral military cooperation, especially after what happened with Lourdes,” the anonymous diplomatic source said.
On the surface, this looks like any old state visit between the Russians and the Cubans. But there are a number of reasons why this visit in particular caught Stratfor
Army General Raul Castro delivered a speech in Santiago de Cuba yesterday commemorating the 55th anniversary of the start of the communist revolution. Castro warned the populace of more hard times ahead.
Relevant parts of the speech:
The majority of our nation has demonstrated sufficient familiarity and maturity to understand these truths, which turn out to be inescapable. On the other hand, other persons stubbornly try to close their eyes before the world’s problems. I repeat that the Revolution has done and will continue to do everything in its power to foster its development and reduce to a minimum the unavoidable consequences of the current international crisis for the population. However, we must inform our people in a timely manner of the difficulties so that they may be prepared to face them. We have to get used to not receiving just good news.
[...]
As great as our desires may be to resolve each problem, we cannot spend more than what we have, and in order take the greatest advantage, it is vital to save everything, primarily fuel.
[...]
As a poor country without easily exploitable large natural resources, which has to work hard to earn a living in a world where most of the people live in the direst poverty, the material objectives of our people cannot be too ambitious.
[...]
Aside from production, our defence will not be ignored regardless of the outcome of the next presidential elections in the United States. Defence preparedness is going well. In November 2007, we carried out the Moncada exercises in the western and central part of the island with good results. In the eastern territory, we carried them out in June because we decided to postpone them in order to not affect the recovery efforts in the aftermath of last year’s heavy rains. We continue the favourable development of Operation Caguairan which has translated into a significant increase of reserve preparedness, who complement active duty and militia troops. At the same time, we have continued developing the military theatre of operations, upgrading of armaments and other of the resources, and developing and training officers; more than 2,000 graduated this year, the highest rate in the last 10 years.
The conditions have been created to carry out the strategic exercise Bastion 2008 with highest quality and rigour in November.
Stratfor provides analysis about the current strategic issue in the Western Hemisphere and poses the question: what about subs instead of planes in Cuba?
Summary
With rumors flying (along with subsequent denials) about the potential stationing of Russian military aircraft in Cuba, there is another possibility: the stationing of Russian submarines. It would be a Cold War redux
Moscow officials hinted through the media on July 21 that Russian Tu-160 and Tu-95 strategic bombers, armed with nuclear-tipped long-range X-55 cruise missiles, may be deployed on Cuba, as an asymmetric response to the planned US deployments of missile defense systems in Europe. The bombers could refuel at one of Cuba’s airfields, where Russian specialists have already looked at the site. According to the unnamed officials, a
Ilshat Baichurin, spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, has denied Russia is considering basing strategic bomber aircraft in Cuba, AFP reports.
“We regard these sorts of reports from anonymous sources as disinformation,” Baichurin is quoted as saying in RIA Novosti.
Baichurin was referring to an article published Monday in the Izvestia daily citing an anonymous military source as saying that Moscow was considering sending bombers to Cuba in retaliation for the US plans, as reported by RIA Novosti.
He suggested the report could have been spread by foreign countries building military bases and installations around Russia, an apparent allusion to US plans to build elements of a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Moscow does not plan to build bases threatening other states, he said.
“Russia, out of its peace-loving policies, does not build military bases along the borders of other states,” RIA Novosti quoted Baichurin as saying.
Fidel Castro’s latest missive reflects on the “eventual installation of strategic Russian fighter-planes bases” in Cuba:
Raul was right to keep dignified silence over the statements published last Monday, July 21st, by Izvestia on the eventual installation of strategic Russian fighter-planes bases in our country. The news came up from a certain hypothesis elaborated in Russia associated with the Yankees obstinacy in setting up radars and launching pads for their nuclear shield close to the borders of that great power.
Yesterday, July 22nd, General Norton Schwartz, recently appointed U.S. new Air Force Chief of Staff, said at the Senate that if Russia did that it would be crossing the red line, something inadmissible to the United States security.
Russian experts think that the reaction of Gen Norton Schwartz, [nominated to be] the chief of staff of the US Air Force, to potential appearance of Russian strategic bombers in Cuba was “inappropriate”.
“Russian strategic bombers have the right to use airfields in any country, including Cuba, if the leadership of that country does not object. Therefore, Gen Schwarz’ statement can only be described as inappropriate and childish,” Anatoliy Kornukov, former commander-in- chief of the Air-Force, told Interfax AVN on Wednesday [23 July].
“As a professional, Gen Schwartz should also know that missile carriers have the right to fly over neutral waters, in any region of the world, which is what American bombers do, by the way,” he said.
“Cuba is a unique place to gather intelligence on the United States. I believe that the reopening of this station is both possible and necessary amid the threat that the Americans are creating for Russia,” –Alexander Pikayev, head of the disarmament and conflict resolution department at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economics and International Relations Institute, told a news conference at RIA Novosti.
Army General Raul Castro warned of tough economic times ahead for the island from spiraling international fuel and food prices in his July 11 speech before the National Assembly. Food was mentioned a total of 14 times in his speech.
One instance:
When speaking of oil there are other factors as well, such as agro-fuel production, financial speculation, and the devaluation of the dollar, to name just a few. These have caused a rise in price for almost every food product and the resources used in their production. Three examples: in July of 2007, the price of importing rice had risen to $435 per ton. Today it costs $1,100 per ton. It used to cost $435. A similar amount of wheat, one ton, cost $297 when we spoke in Camaguey last year. Now it costs more than $409. During that same address in Camaguey on 26 July I said that a ton of powdered milk at that time cost the astronomical sum of $5,200, whereas four years earlier it cost $2,100, less than half. Everything is more expensive. On top of everything, fertilizer prices are among those that are climbing fastest. One of the most important fertilizers rose from $303 per ton in July 2007 to $688 now. Another commonly used one, [word indistinct] cost $400 a year ago but now costs almost $700. It seems like the work of the devil.
Increased food prices have become a security concern for developing nations and in the case of Cuba, a possible destabilizing variable from a hungry populace who can ill afford to pay spiraling prices of foodstuffs. How will the Cuban regime address this factor, remains to be seen.
Army General Raul Castro wearing a white guayabera gave a televised address before the National Assembly (Cuban Parliament) yesterday addressing critical issues befacing the country.
The BBC calls Castro’s address his most sombre assessment of Cuba’s economic situation since he succeeded his brother Fidel in February. He said would have to lift restrictions on salaries more slowly than anticipated and key reforms could be affected by global rises in food and oil prices.
Castro said “the salary problem” was being studied and would be addressed “gradually and according to priorities” but that quick action may not be possible.
The following list 1 provides the number of Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officer visits to Cuba, from 2001 through 2008:
Vatican
Alberto Pérez Giménez 
The 
Spanish journalist 
Parliamentarians begin analyzing economic situation
28 July 2010 at 1606 in Commentary, Debt, Economy, Government, Havana, Market, National Assembly, Nomenklatura, Ricardo Alarcon by Armando F. Mastrapa 3d
The Committee on Economic Affairs of the Cuban National Assembly of People’s Power (Asamblea Nacional del Poder Popular, ANPP) began today studying different issues related to the situation on the island, specifically, the precarious economic performance, which has increased demands for fundamental change by the populace.
Ministers and other leaders also notified members of the Committee on the implementation of the state budget in the first half of 2010, low labor productivity and import substitution. [El Financiero]
Tags: ANPP, Asamblea Nacional del Poder Popular, Committee on Economic Affairs, National Assembly of People's Power