Category — Mexico

Walter Molano (head of research at BCP Securities) wrote the following article published by Latin Business Chronicle which points to the winners and losers in Latin America affected by the US election in November.

The impact on Latin America of US presidential elections and the global credit crunch.

The outcome of the U.S. presidential election has important implications for Latin America. There will be winners and losers, depending on who wins the White House.

Mexico and Colombia will be the obvious winners if Senator McCain wins. With a well-articulated immigration plan and a willingness to step up the so-called war against drugs, Mexico will receive greater attention from Washington. The same goes for Colombia. The Arizona Senator’s willingness to visit Colombia in the midst of his electoral campaign was a clear sign of support for the Andean nation. A McCain presidency would work hard to ensure the ratification of the Free Trade Agreement, as well as a follow-on supplement to Plan Colombia.

Not surprisingly, the list of winners and losers will invert if Senator Obama wins the White House. Cuba will probably be one of the biggest winners, given that the Illinois Senator favors re-establishing a dialogue with the Caribbean renegade. A more favorable relationship with Cuba would imply closer ties to its allies, namely Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia. [Read more →]

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Via Oxford Analytica:

Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque visits Mexico on Thursday, in an atmosphere of improving bilateral ties.  Close historical ties between the two countries, arising from a shared revolutionary tradition, and similar challenges from close proximity with the United States, had suffered under the administration of former Mexican President Vicente Fox.

Things have changed since. Veteran Cuban leader Fidel Castro has handed over the presidency to his brother, Raul, who is anxious to reduce the country’s dependence on Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and focus on other relational relationships.  While Brazil has been at the forefront of this, Mexico is also a strategically important regional power because of its size and proximity, both to the island and United States. Mexican President Felipe Calderon, who took over from Fox after narrowly winning elections in 2006, has pursued a much more low-key and pragmatic foreign policy than his predecessor. While ideologically and temperamentally very different to his Venezuelan and Cuban counterparts, he has sought to normalise relations with both.

The key current bilateral issue is likely to be immigration.  While Cubans do still seek to reach the Florida coasts in — often makeshift — boats, an increasingly popular alternative sees migrants travelling to the Mexican state of Veracruz, from where they make their way to the US border by land, availing themselves there of the ‘wet foot dry foot’ policy, which grants Cubans automatic residency.  This is much more difficult to control, and has led to significant numbers from elsewhere in Latin America pretending to be Cuban in a bid to secure entry to the United States.  Addressing the problem will require high levels of bilateral engagement and cooperation, and could be an issue on which the Cuban government could engage with the next US administration.

Indeed, another key factor on both sides will be preparing for dealings with US President George Bush’s successor.  While Senator Barack Obama appears more willing to engage with Havana than his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain, engagement is likely whoever wins. Progress will necessarily be slow and hesitant, however, because of domestic political constraints in both countries. Mexico could be a key player in such a process, as a mediator and go-between.

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A possible recovery of Cuba’s sugar industry through foreign investment is discussed in the following report from IPS:

Foreign direct investment in the sugar industry is acceptable to the Cuban government for producing alcohol and other derivatives, but it continues to be a topic that the authorities prefer not to talk about, at least in public, although experts regard it as desirable for the recovery of the industry.

At present there are seven joint ventures involving capital from Spain, Italy, Canada and Mexico, all of which concentrate on the diversification of the sugar industry, Liobel Pérez, the Sugar Ministry’s chief communications officer, told IPS.

Pérez said six of the joint ventures between Cuban and foreign capital are based in this Caribbean island nation, and one is based in Mexico, where it markets technological expertise and technical assistance for optimising sustainable sugar production.

Discreet approaches made some two years ago by foreign companies interested in investing in sugar production did not prosper. “Conversations were held, but they did not produce concrete results,” Deputy Minister Juan Godefoy of the Sugar Ministry responded to an enquiry by IPS, without elaborating. [Read more →]

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Jorge Castañeda, former Foreign Minister of Mexico, has written an article (preview only) for Foreign Affairs in which he believes the key to a successful foreign policy in Latin America is to focus on four critical issues — Cuba, immigration, trade, and the “two lefts”.

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