Konstantin Sonin, a Professor of Economics at the New Economic School in Moscow, penned an article in the Moscow Times where hecompares the economic and political consequences of Moscow’s support of local “tsars:” Cuba’s Fidel Castro and Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenko.
The political life of Cuban leader Fidel Castro goes on and on, thwarting all attempts to draw up a final summary of his reign. Over the course of Castro’s 50 years in power, Cubans’ standard of living has remained practically unchanged — even as living conditions have improved by leaps and bounds in most other countries. Among the many questions I’d like to pose: How was Castro able to maintain control of a small and militarily weak country using the energy of far stronger world powers?
A comprehensive history of Fidel would undoubtedly help us understand the behavior of Belarussian leader Alexander Lukashenko, who has recently taken a series of steps to spite Russia’s current leadership.
It’s a historical fact that Cuba benefited greatly from the friendship and material support of the Soviet Union from the beginning of the 1960s to the late 1980s. But it is worth remembering that Fidel’s rule began with a friendship of an entirely different sort. Having seized power following the overthrow of the Batista regime, the newfound Cuban prime minister set out on a long visit to the United States in an effort to shore up relations there. It didn’t work out, of course. To draw support from the revolutionary poor while simultaneously defending American special interests at the U.S. government’s behest was a balancing act too difficult for even Castro. Understandably fearing that the United States would interfere in the island’s internal power struggles, Fidel threw himself into the arms of its Cold War enemy, the Soviet Union.
The story of the dramatic confrontation that occurred between the two warring superpowers during the Cuban Missile Crisis is a familiar one: Moscow placed nuclear-tipped rockets in Cuba; the Americans responded by threatening to blockade the island and inspect incoming vessels. Moscow withdrew the rockets and, in exchange, Washington agreed to withdraw its bases from Turkey and Italy and guarantee the safety of the Cuban government. Was it a draw? Yes, unless you count the person who won big at someone else’s expense.
It’s unclear what Moscow gained from all those years of supporting socialist Cuba. Fidel got the ability to consolidate and retain power despite shoddy domestic policies and brash foreign policies. (His country, one of the major economic failures of the 20th century, actually served as a source of “ideas” for others.)
The history of Fidel is not just an isolated case. The 20th century knew many other local “tsars” and socialist leaders who built up their own power and took handouts from all sides. For Russia, the lessons can be applied to Lukashenko. Support for an authoritarian, undemocratically elected leader might bring short-term gains, but it eventually turns a big country into a smaller country’s hostage. Attempts by big countries to use economic levers to pressure little Castros lead to lower standards of living and strengthen the authoritarian leaders’ power. If Lukashenko had to answer to voters, or if his power were restricted by an opposition-led parliament, he would have far fewer opportunities to manipulate us through his foreign policy.
In general, we don’t spend enough time studying the United States’ mistakes in Latin America over the past two centuries. We ought to hit the history books.
UPDATE 20100716 @ 1548: I received an email from Jorge Piñon (Visiting Research Fellow with the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University and former president of Amoco Oil Latin America) pointing out that the Russians are not in deep waters, in fact, they are in two blocks of shallow waters as seen in the map (click image to expand further).
20100714 @ 0825: Russian state oil company Zarubezhneft plans to drill a shelf near Cuba in 2011. Zarubezhneft and the Cuban national oil company, Cubapetroleo, signed four contracts in November 2009 to conduct geologic explorations and hydrocarbon production. The contracts were the first long-term contracts between Russia and Cuba in the last 20 years. [RIA Novosti]
If the prisoners — who include journalists, community organisers and opposition figures — are indeed set free, this would be a major concession on the part of the Castro government. It appears to be designed for external consumption, however. It could lead to improvements in Cuba’s foreign relations, particularly with Spain and other EU nations. EU foreign ministers will take up the issue of whether to uphold their “common position” on Cuba at their next summit in September. That position requires that the EU conduct an annual assessment of the human-rights situation in Cuba. Spain has been lobbying for some time for that requirement to be dropped.
However, the prisoner releases probably do not signal coming democratisation or any moves to provide Cubans with greater political rights. Moreover, there has been no fundamental shift in the tolerance of opposition. While discussions with Church representatives were under way in early June, the authorities rounded up and briefly detained 37 members of two dissident groups, Agenda para la Transición (Agenda for the Transition) and Unidad Liberal de la República de Cuba (the Cuban Republic’s Liberal Unity). Ostensibly this was to prevent two meetings due to take place in the house of a prominent dissident, Héctor Palacios, although the meetings proceeded any way.
Further, the Cuban Commission on Human Rights claims there are more than 100 additional political prisoners in Cuban jails.
[...]
The administration of President Barack Obama has taken modest steps towards improving relations with Cuba, such as eliminating Bush-era restrictions on travel to the island by Cuban-Americans and on their remittance of funds to their relatives. However, aware that the Cuba problem cannot be solved easily or quickly, the Obama government has decided to make no additional moves on Cuba policy in the approach to the US mid-term elections in November. Nonetheless, a campaign in the US legislature to weaken economic sanctions has continued. Two bills are advancing through Congress, one to facilitate US food sales to Cuba (by eliminating the need for Cuba to pay in cash in advance) and the other to remove restrictions on travel for US citizens. Although improvement on the human-rights front would help these bills’ prospects, final passage is highly uncertain.
[...]
In the absence of normalisation of political and commercial ties with Washington, Cuba’s relations with Venezuela will remain an important source of support for the economy. These are based on favourable terms of trade that link Cuba’s oil imports to the supply of healthcare and education professionals to Venezuela. If Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, were to be forced out of office, there would be a risk that current arrangements might be scaled back.
Partly reflecting this uncertainty, the Cuban authorities will continue to broaden international economic ties with other friendly countries, notably China, Brazil and Russia, which are becoming ever-more important trade partners. Restoring good relations with the EU would also help to mitigate the growing reliance on, and risks associated with, Havana’s links to Venezuela.
The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has broken up an eleven member deep-cover Russian spy ring that included a Peruvian born journalist (with pro-Castro sympathies) along with her husband who wrote a column for Spanish daily El Diario-La Prensa in New York.
The New York Times has published the criminal complaints from the U.S. Justice Department.
Babalú Blog has more on a possible Cuban connection.
(Image: Peruvian born journalist Vicky Peláez is accused of being a Russian spy involved in a conspiracy to commit money laundering. By El Diario NY.)
Civil Defense Chief Division General Ramón Pardo Guerra, who arrived in Moscow last Sunday, met with Russian Minister of Emergency Situation Serguei Shoigu and attended today the inauguration ceremony of the 2010 Intergrated Safety and Security Exhibition (ISSE) fair at the All-Russia Exhibition Center in Moscow, reports Cuban state media.
Fair exhibits include Fire Protection, Rescue Equipment, Security Technical Systems and Equipment, Transport Safety, Armament and Technical Equipment of Special Forces Units, Industrial Safety, Technical Facilities for Border and Customs Control, Equipment for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Safety, Information and Communication Security.
Of particular interest to the Cuban FAR (Revolutionary Armed Forces) and MININT (Ministry of Interior) would be the Armament and Technical Equipment of Special Forces Units exhibit for the potential use of new technologies to enforce stability operations in Havana that would provide security for the regime.
DG Pardo Guerra and his delegation will watch EMERCOM forces demonstration exercises in Noguinsk city, which is the closing program of the International Security Hall 2010 on Friday, May 21.
The goal of ISSE “is to provide effective cooperation between executive authorities and manufacturers of safety and security products in order to promote up-to-date technologies both to domestic and foreign markets of security systems and equipment.”
Claire Berlinski in City Journalwrites about the indifference throughout the world to documents proving Soviet atrocities committed under Communism:
Nor is it widely acknowledged that Communism was responsible for the deaths of some 150 million human beings during the twentieth century. The world remains inexplicably indifferent and uncurious about the deadliest ideology in history.
For evidence of this indifference, consider the unread Soviet archives. Pavel Stroilov, a Russian exile in London, has on his computer 50,000 unpublished, untranslated, top-secret Kremlin documents, mostly dating from the close of the Cold War. He stole them in 2003 and fled Russia. Within living memory, they would have been worth millions to the CIA; they surely tell a story about Communism and its collapse that the world needs to know. Yet he can’t get anyone to house them in a reputable library, publish them, or fund their translation. In fact, he can’t get anyone to take much interest in them at all.
Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdiukov (left image) met with a Cuban military delegation to discuss the future of military-technical cooperation, stated defense ministry spokeswoman Irina Kovalchuk, reportsRia Novosti.
“The meeting focused on issues of stability in Latin America and the world at large, and in the current and future state of bilateral cooperation in the military and military-technical spheres,” Serdiukov said.
According to Kovalchuk, the Russian Defense Minister noted that 2009 marked a revival of Russian-Cuban cooperation in all areas.
“Military cooperation has an important place in the overall bilateral relations. We believe that the military and military-technical cooperation between the two countries is experiencing a positive change,” the spokeswoman quoted Serdiukov.
The Russian minister said that Cuba remains a good partner for Russia.
The Cuban delegation is led by Army Corps General Álvaro López Miera (right image), Vice-Minister of Cuba’s Revolutionary Armed Forces and Chief of the General Staff.
Cuba needs money, spare parts for Soviet military equipment and a sense of alliance with a heavyweight player. During President Dmitry Medvedev’s November 2008 visit, Fidel declared that Russia and Cuba were natural partners because both were “constantly threatened by the same adversary of peace.”
A senior U.S. official has stated that Russia “has strategic ties to Cuba again, or at least that’s where they’re going.” Some say the Russians want to refit the listening post in Lourdes, outside Havana, which they abandoned in 2002, for use in cyber-espionage and cyber-warfare. Or the Russians might want a refueling base for their naval vessels and their bombers, which have resumed aggressive patrolling. (Right after Medvedev’s visit, Nikolai Patrushev, head of the Security Council, as well as Alexander Maslov, head of Russia’s air defense, also visited Havana.) But these are secondary, tactical considerations.
Russia’s No. 1 foreign policy objective is to keep Ukraine out of NATO. At the moment, NATO membership hardly seems imminent. Disappointed in liberalism, Ukraine is becoming more pro-Russian, and Europe is relieved not to deal with that troublesome country for the time being.
BBC Mundoreports on espionage in Latin America and Cuba’s role in it.
And of course there is Cuba.
“Both China and Russia’s services have a close relationship with the intelligence community there in an advisory role,” says Mr [Robert] Munks of Jane’s Intelligence Review.
Experts say this “advisory role” that Cuba has with Russia and China is spreading to other parts of Latin America.
Russian Emergency Situations Minister Sergei Shoigu arrived in Havana, Cuba, late 10 November to sign an agreement on cooperation for “information exchange and training” for Cuban emergency specialists, RIA Novosti reported 11 November.
Shoigu, who traveled to Cuba from Nicaragua where he concluded a similar agreement, said, “The Russian government has resolved to allocate a substantial sum to buy equipment and to train Nicaragua specialists to remove mines.”
The Western media seems to misunderstand the significance of the seemingly benign Russian agreements on emergency situations. The Emergency Situations Ministry is one of the most powerful in Russia in that it is the conduit for military and paramilitary assistance to nations with whom Russia has agreements, including Serbia. The definition of emergency is rather loose. These agreements are the updated versions of Friendship and Security Agreements arranged by the Soviet Union.
The significance is that Russia uses this Ministry as a substitute for the Defense or Interior Ministries to arrange relationships that in earlier times would have stood out as defense or military assistance agreements. The effects are the same in practice, but the terminology is less likely to receive careful scrutiny or attention by the West. Putin is the genius behind this quite effective subterfuge.
Army General Raúl Castro, Army Corps General Julio Casas Regueiro & Serguei Shoigú. Image: Tiempo21
Army General Raul Castro met with the Russian Minister of Civil Defense and Emergency Situations, Serguei Shoigu, who is on an official visit to the island nation, reported Cuban state media.
During the meeting, Castro and Shoigu expressed their satisfaction at the cooperation advances between the Civil Defense ministries of both countries.
Also present in the meeting were the Minister of the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces, Army Corps General Julio Casas Regueiro; the Chief of the Civil Defense National General Staff, Division General Ramon Pardo Guerra; and the Russian Ambassador in Havana, Mijail Kamynin; as well as members of the visiting delegation.
The chief of the Russian General Staff has arrived in Cuba for a working visit at the invitation of the Cuban military leadership.Gen. Nikolai Makarov, who landed in Havana late on Monday, will meet with his Cuban counterpart Gen. Alvaro Lopez Miera and other top brass, and “visit a number of military installations,” Russian Ambassador in Cuba Mikhail Kamynin said.
Although the Cuban leadership has repeatedly said it has no intention of resuming military cooperation with Russia after the surprise closure of the Russian electronic listening post in Lourdes in 2001, bilateral military ties seem to have been improving following the visit of Russian Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin to Cuba in July last year.
…
Some Russian military sources have recently indicated that if a political decision is made Moscow could resume operations at the Lourdes facility and also use airbases in Cuba for refueling of strategic aircraft.
A pair of nuclear-powered Russian attack submarines has been patrolling off the eastern seaboard of the United States in recent days, a rare mission that has raised concerns inside the Pentagon and intelligence agencies about a more assertive stance by the Russian military.
…
The submarines are of the Akula class, a counterpart to the Los Angeles class attack subs of the United States Navy, and not one of the larger submarines that can launch intercontinental nuclear missiles.
…
According to Defense Department officials, one of the Russian submarines remained in international waters on Tuesday about 200 miles off the coast of the United States. The location of the second remained unclear. One senior official said the second submarine traveled south in recent days toward Cuba, while another senior official with access to reports on the surveillance mission said it had sailed away in a northerly direction.
Mijéiev recalled that Russia is developing a network of aircraft maintenance services (for MiG-21, MiG-23 and Su-22 planes) abroad, particularly in Latin American nations like Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela where maintenance and repair centers have been or will be installed shortly.
An audience of Russian generals and colonels and members of the NATO Mobile Education Training Team at the General Staff Academy in Moscow listens to lectures. Image: NATO
La Nueva Cuba’s lead story today informs of reports the newspaper received from within the island that “Russian personnel has been in Cuba for several months working on modernizing SIGINT operations in the old Lourdes surveillance and monitoring facility south of Havana,” (complex is center right in Google Map above) which was closed in 2001 by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The report goes on to say, “both Cuba and Venezuela will benefit with access to some of the information obtained from Moscow…Some of the monitoring operations has been activated and work is underway to modernize the installation with the most advanced Russian technology available. The amplification and improvement of these installations operated by Russia are part of a project of rearming and modernization of Russian armed forces and the goal of completion by 2011.”
Furthermore, “The new operations could include military sections dedicated to hacking or computer systems espionage with a capacity to neutralize U.S. military networks in the case of emergency and sensitive situations emerging from a military conflict or political necessity to pressure a weakened United States susceptible to political pressure.”
Maj. General Anatoly Zhikharev, Chief of Staff of the Russian Air Force has told Interfax-AVN military news agency that Russia could use air bases for its strategic bombers in Cuba and Venezuela.
He said: “There are four or five airfields in Cuba with 4,000-meter-long runways, which absolutely suit us.”
The recent Russian naval visits to Cuba and Venezuela may be linked to August’s Georgia war, said the U.S. diplomat. Shannon believes Russia may be considering a security presence in the region.
He is quoted in the interview as saying, “What would be telling however, is not this ship visit, it’s the next one. If the purpose of this ship visit was just to make a point about Russia’s periphery, if its purpose was just to make a point about Georgia, then we probably won’t see them again. But if the Russians really are attempting to build a more longstanding relationship in the region, then they will look for ways to maintain some presence in their security relationship with partners. What’s interesting for us about how Russia is engaging in the region is this is not the Soviet Union, they do not bring an ideological purpose to their engagement.”
Arms Sales
Shannon went further by adding, Russia’s trade interests include arms sales and, while Venezuela has the right to buy weapons. He was concerned an arms race might develop in the region or that decommissioned arms might be sold off to illegal groups.
“They’re (arms) sold in a context, so when Venezuela buys $4 billion worth of weapons with very high-end aircraft, it has an impact in the region and one consequence of this is the Brazilian decision to modernize its armed forces,” said Shannon.
Despite grandiose talk, this is not a particularly threatening flotilla: The Russian nuclear-powered missile cruiser Peter the Great is joined by an antisubmarine destroyer, a fuel tanker and a tugboat that is on hand in case of breakdowns. “Militarily, the trip is virtually meaningless,” says Jan van Tol, a recently retired U.S. Navy captain and senior fellow at the D.C.-based Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. “A lot of it has to do with the credibility of the navy involved,” Tol says. “I don’t think [Nicaragua's] Daniel Ortega, [Cuba's] Raul Castro or [Venezuela's] Hugo Chavez are asking the Russians, ‘How long would it take for you to be here if we needed help?’ ”
The Russians are not sending their third-string ships on this diplomatic mission; those selected to visit the hemisphere are some of the best surface ships they have left after a decade of neglect. “Peter the Great was one of the better ships the Soviets had. It was quite a powerful ship for its time,” says van Tol. “They probably were taken in for significant refitting and rehabilitation to make the trip.”
As humble as the fleet might seem from a military point of view, the real mission is powerful for its diplomatic symbolism
Cuban President Raul Castro will visit Russia next year, the Kremlin said on Tuesday, in a new sign that Moscow is reviving a Cold War-era trade and military alliance. “Next year we await … Raul Castro in our country and this will be yet another contribution to the development of ties,” Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque in Moscow.
Both nations have signed a series of bilateral trade and economic accords. The accords (covered the automobile, nickel and oil industries, as well as the supply of wheat to Cuba) were signed during a visit to Havana by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin.
Chief of the Battle Antimissile Defense Staff of the RF Armed Forces General-Lieutenant Alexander Maslov visits Cuba October 27 through November 3. Maslov goes to Cuba together with the delegation of Russia
Almost half a century after the Cuban missile crisis, the Russian navy is coming to the Americas. While the mood in Washington is far from panicked, neither is it mirthful. There is a sense of discomfort and dissatisfaction with the voyage of the Russian flotilla and concern about where U.S.-Russian and hemispheric relations are headed.
In the coming weeks, media attention will focus on the passage of the Russian squadron into Caribbean waters, where in November it will conduct joint exercises with the Venezuelan navy. Venezuelan President Hugo Ch
Hurricane Gustav and Hurricane Ike inflicted misery on millions of Cubans. But when the Castro dictatorship looks at the devastation, it sees opportunity.
There is every reason to say that Russia has started reasserting its global position. This includes big-time politics and efforts to expand scientific and military-technical cooperation with other countries, including Cuba, the Soviet Union’s main Latin American ally.
It is hard to overestimate the importance of Latin America, and Cuba in particular, for Russia. Commenting on the results of Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev’s August 2008 visit to Cuba, Andrei Klimov, deputy chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the State Duma, said Russia, as a major power, needed to maintain its economic and security presence in Cuba.
In mid-September, Moscow and Havana negotiated joint space projects. Anatoly Perminov, director of the Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos), said the sides had discussed the possibility of setting up a Cuban space center with Russian assistance.
Perminov said both countries had discussed the implementation of agreements reached by the Russian-Cuban inter-governmental commission two months ago. “This primarily concerns the drafting of a cooperation agreement on civilian space programs, another agreement on the Global Navigation Satellite System and navigation support on Cuban territory,” Perminov said. Read the rest of this entry »
Russia could include Cuba and Venezuela into a satellite navigation system originally designed for missile targeting by the Soviet military, the head of Russia’s space agency said Wednesday.
“We discussed the theme of joint use of the Glonass satellite navigation system,” Roskosmos chief Anatoly Perminov was quoted by RIA Novosti news agency as saying, referring to talks with the authorities in Venezuela.
Perminov said similar negotiations had been held with Cuban authorities and that Moscow and Havana had talked “in a preliminary way about the possibility of building a space centre in Cuba with our assistance,” RIA Novosti reported.
Glonass was developed for missile targeting by the Soviet army in the 1980s to compete with the GPS system used by the United States. The project is expected to be completed, with 24 satellites in orbit, by 2009.
Glonass is currently administered by the Russian defence ministry.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin last week boosted financing for the long-delayed project by 1.85 billion euros (2.61 billion dollars). Glonass also aims to compete with the European Union’s Galileo system.
Russia has boosted military cooperation with Venezuela in recent months, reviving memories of tensions between the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War in the Caribbean region.
In a move seen as a direct response to US plans to set up missile defence installations in the Czech Republic and Poland, Russia this month announced it was dispatching warships and long-range bombers to Venezuela for exercises
Moscow is ready to help Cuba develop its own space center, Russia’s space agency chief said on Wednesday after talks in Caracas with Venezuelan and Cuban officials, Itar-Tass news agency reported.
Russia has stepped up efforts to develop closer links with both countries, which are ideological enemies of Washington, including sending Russian strategic bombers on a mission to Venezuela this month.
“We have held preliminary discussions about the possibility of creating a space center in Cuba with our help,” the chief of Russia’s Federal Space Agency Anatoly Perminov was quoted as saying by Itar-Tass in Caracas.
“With our Cuban colleagues, we discussed the possibilities of joint use of space equipment … and the joint use of space communications systems,” Perminov was quoted as saying.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin visited Cuba this week and together with representatives from several Russian ministries and large Russian companies looked at ways to help Cuba recover from hurricanes Gustav and Ike.
Renewed Russian links to the Caribbean island will stir memories in Washington of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis when the United States and Soviet Union almost went to war over Soviet missile bases on Cuba, which is 90 miles from U.S. shores.
Russian officials have said they want to renew Cuban ties that were neglected after the Soviet Union’s collapse.
ISN Security Watch has an article addressing Cuba’s international relations leverage and foreign investment:
When Russian daily Izvestia reported on 21 July that Russian Tu-160 and Tu-95MS bombers had landed in Cuba, it set off a sprint in Washington as analysts and military leaders struggled to understand the situation.
At first, it appeared that Moscow had made a very serious gesture. Russia’s perceived geopolitical maneuver in Cuba, many thought, was in response to the US’ plans for an anti-missile shield defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.
By 24 July, after three days of media hype and speculation over Russia’s true intentions, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Ilshat Baichurin, dismissed any intention for a strategic deployment in Cuba.
Two events quickly followed up this announcement. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin arrived in Cuba on 30 July for extended talks with Raul and Fidel Castro. A former KGB operative and known confidant of now-Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Sechin was an active operative during the Cold War and enjoyed a deep relationship with the Castros.
Putin then followed up Sechin’s visit with a 5 August announcement that Russia ought to “restore [its] position in Cuba and other countries.”
Observers agree a military presence in Cuba is not in Moscow’s best interests; rather, closer economic ties would behoove both nations. Sechin’s recent visit underlines the latter observation and coaxes Washington into a more open posture toward Cuba, an island nation the next US presidential administration would likely prefer not to lose again to the Russians. Read the rest of this entry »
United Aircraft Corp., the Russian state aerospace group, and OAO Aviaexport agreed with Cuba’s Civil Aviation Institute to sell the Caribbean nation airplanes and set up service centers for local clients.
A memorandum of understanding was signed last week during Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin’s visit to Cuba to deliver models including OAO Tupolev Co.’s Tu-204 mid-range planes and Antonov An- 148 regional jets, Russia’s Industry and Trade Ministry said in a statement on its Web site today.
Russian drugmakers OAO Pharmstandard and OOO Pharmapark also agreed with Cuba’s Center of Genetic Engineering and Biotechnologies to cooperate on producing vaccines in Russia, according to the statement.
Radio Netherlands examines Russian interest in restoring its military base in Cuba and the Cuban government’s lack of interest:
Cuba itself has already made it fairly clear that there’s no question of a renewed Russian military colonialism. The country is still sore at the fact that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought an end to the liberal flow of funds from Moscow. And the leadership in Havana hasn’t forgotten that ten years later, without any consultation, Russia ended to its last military presence in Cuba: the vast intelligence base in Torrens, better known as “Lourdes”, from which legend has it a pin could be heard falling anywhere in the southern United States, and all US communications could be tapped.
Chairman of the Russian government [Prime Minister] Vladimir Putin believes that Russia should restore its positions [as received] in Cuba.
“We need to restore our positions in both Cuba and in other countries,” Putin said at a meeting of the government presidium today.
Putin heard a report from Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin about the latter’s visit to Cuba as co-chairman of the Russian-Cuban intergovernmental commission.
Russia is resuming its presence in such an important geostrategic area as Cuba and Latin America, Andrey Klimov, deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, told RIA-Novosti. He was speaking about the results of head of the Russian Security Council Nikolay Patrushev’s visit to Cuba.
Klimov believes that Russia is resuming collaboration with its good old partner. He added that “Cuba has a very important geostrategic situation”. He thinks it’s right that Russia as a major power should be present there in the spheres of economy and security. The Duma deputy did not rule out that Russian military presence on the island may also be considered. “Russia is quite likely to take a decision on military presence in Cuba in response to the deployment of American ABM systems next to the Russian border,” the deputy said.
However, according to another cable from Ria Novosti:
Cuban leadership has no intentions to resume military cooperation with Russia after a surprise closure of a Russian electronic listening post in Lourdes in 2001, a high-ranking Cuban diplomat said on Saturday.
After Russian Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin visited Cuba on July 30-31, the council issued a statement saying: “Russia and Cuba are set to make consistent efforts to restore longtime ties in all spheres of cooperation and to expand and strengthen them.”
“The Cuban leadership is ready to cooperate with Russia in civilian sectors but it is unlikely to revive bilateral military cooperation, especially after what happened with Lourdes,” the anonymous diplomatic source said.
On the surface, this looks like any old state visit between the Russians and the Cubans. But there are a number of reasons why this visit in particular caught Stratfor
Stratfor provides analysis about the current strategic issue in the Western Hemisphere and poses the question: what about subs instead of planes in Cuba?
Summary
With rumors flying (along with subsequent denials) about the potential stationing of Russian military aircraft in Cuba, there is another possibility: the stationing of Russian submarines. It would be a Cold War redux
Ilshat Baichurin, spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, has denied Russia is considering basing strategic bomber aircraft in Cuba, AFP reports.
“We regard these sorts of reports from anonymous sources as disinformation,” Baichurin is quoted as saying in RIA Novosti.
Baichurin was referring to an article published Monday in the Izvestia daily citing an anonymous military source as saying that Moscow was considering sending bombers to Cuba in retaliation for the US plans, as reported by RIA Novosti.
He suggested the report could have been spread by foreign countries building military bases and installations around Russia, an apparent allusion to US plans to build elements of a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Moscow does not plan to build bases threatening other states, he said.
“Russia, out of its peace-loving policies, does not build military bases along the borders of other states,” RIA Novosti quoted Baichurin as saying.
Russia could put in place an orbital ballistic missile system in response to U.S. missile defense plans for Central Europe, a senior Russian military expert said on Thursday…”A program could be implemented to create orbital ballistic missiles capable of reaching U.S. territory via the South Pole, skirting U.S. air defense bases,” said Col. Gen. Viktor Yesin, former chief of staff of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, now vice president of the Academy of Security, Defense and Law Enforcement Studies…Russian daily Izvestia quoted Defense Ministry sources as saying Russian strategic bombers may soon be deployed at airbases in Cuba, Venezuela and Algeria.
Fidel Castro’s latest missive reflects on the “eventual installation of strategic Russian fighter-planes bases” in Cuba:
Raul was right to keep dignified silence over the statements published last Monday, July 21st, by Izvestia on the eventual installation of strategic Russian fighter-planes bases in our country. The news came up from a certain hypothesis elaborated in Russia associated with the Yankees obstinacy in setting up radars and launching pads for their nuclear shield close to the borders of that great power.
Yesterday, July 22nd, General Norton Schwartz, recently appointed U.S. new Air Force Chief of Staff, said at the Senate that if Russia did that it would be crossing the red line, something inadmissible to the United States security.
Russian experts think that the reaction of Gen Norton Schwartz, [nominated to be] the chief of staff of the US Air Force, to potential appearance of Russian strategic bombers in Cuba was “inappropriate”.
“Russian strategic bombers have the right to use airfields in any country, including Cuba, if the leadership of that country does not object. Therefore, Gen Schwarz’ statement can only be described as inappropriate and childish,” Anatoliy Kornukov, former commander-in- chief of the Air-Force, told Interfax AVN on Wednesday [23 July].
“As a professional, Gen Schwartz should also know that missile carriers have the right to fly over neutral waters, in any region of the world, which is what American bombers do, by the way,” he said.
“Cuba is a unique place to gather intelligence on the United States. I believe that the reopening of this station is both possible and necessary amid the threat that the Americans are creating for Russia,” –Alexander Pikayev, head of the disarmament and conflict resolution department at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economics and International Relations Institute, told a news conference at RIA Novosti.
Russia would cross “a red line for the United States of America” if it were to base nuclear capable bombers in Cuba, a top US air force officer warned on Tuesday. “If they did I think we should stand strong and indicate that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line for the United States of America,” said General Norton Schwartz, nominated to be the air force’s chief of staff.
Update July 23: Bloomberg reports on an “Arms Buildup” in Latin America: The U.S. yesterday also criticized plans by Russia to sell as much as $2 billion of weapons to Venezuela, whose leader Hugo Chavez aims to counter U.S. influence in Latin America.
“We’ve repeatedly communicated concerns to Russia about Chavez’s arms buildup in the past and we’re going to continue to do so,” said Gonzalo Gallegos, a U.S. State Department spokesman, according to comments on the department’s Web Site.
“We continue to question whether such acquisitions are in line with Venezuela’s legitimate defense needs,” he said. Gallegos added that the reports of a bomber deployment in Cuba had not been “officially confirmed’” by the Russian government.
Chavez met Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin yesterday near Moscow. Russia has already sold billions of dollars of weapons to the oil-rich Latin American nation, its closest ally in the region, which has strong ties with communist Cuba.
Chavez wants to order as much as $2 billion worth of weapons, according to Russian media reports, including diesel- powered subs and up to 20 Tor-M1 air-defense systems. He is also seeking to buy Mi-28 combat helicopters and airplanes made by Ilyushin Co., state broadcaster Vesti-24 said.
“Our relations are becoming one of the key regional security factors,” Medvedev told Chavez. “We have one aim: to ensure that the world around us is more democratic, fairer and safer.”
Russia may send military aircraft back to bases in Cuba in response to U.S. plans to deploy elements of a missile defense system in Europe, Izvestiya reported, citing an unidentified “highly placed source.”
Both the supersonic Tu-160, a nuclear bomber known as “White Swan,” and the strategic bomber Tu-95, known to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as the “Bear,” are capable of flying as far as Cuba, the paper said.
“There are such discussions, but they’re only discussions,” the paper cited a “highly placed” source on the staff of Russia’s long-distance strategic aviation command as saying. “I’m not going to say that there’s nothing behind” the talks.
Russian military-transport aircraft regularly fly to Cuba, the paper said, carrying out orders for private companies.
A senior source in the strategic long-distance aviation headquarters said such talk is only talk;
Russia is currently negotiating with Cuba to supply the island with Russian-made aircraft (2 Il-96 aircraft and 4 TU-204: 2 passenger and cargo 2);
Infrastructure of the Port of Mariel is quite old, but still able to take ships.
In the province of Pinar del Rio, where former Soviet troops were deployed — the military can be re-deployed there.
Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, former Chief of Defense for International Cooperation and President of the Academy on Geopolitical Affairs stated: “I wouldn’t say Russian aircraft need Cuba as a permanent home. I know that strategic aviation airplanes were intermediate, landing at airfields in Cape Verde. For such a goal, Cuba can be used again, not as a permanent home – there’s no need for it – but as airfields and air refueling.”
Ivashov further went on to say that Cuba would not object to expanding Lourdes base for radio intelligence or something else.
Update 13:43 EDT: Russian Defence Ministry officials on Monday poured cold water on a newspaper report that suggested Moscow could use Cuba as a refuelling base for nuclear-capable bombers, Reuters reports.
Update July 22, 16:12 EDT: via Reuters: Russia would cross “a red line for the United States of America” if it were to base nuclear capable bombers in Cuba, a top US air force officer warned on Tuesday. “If they did I think we should stand strong and indicate that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line for the United States of America,” said General Norton Schwartz, nominated to be the air force’s chief of staff.
Juan Tamayo of El Nuevo Herald has a piece on the 50th anniversary of the Battle at Escambray (the last armed internal combat against the Castro dictatorship.) Fifty years ago, Rivera was one of up to 4,000 Cubans battling Castro’s brand new government in a little-known, but nasty guerrilla war that raged in parts of [...]
The Cuban government has launched a campaign seeking ways to cut excess personnel in its state sector. José Ramón Machado Ventura, First Vice-President of the Council of State, visited several eastern provinces in the last week to assess efficiency in state entities by reducing personnel.
The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts for Cuba, “fiscal retrenchment will limit growth to only 2% in 2010. In 2011 policy relaxation will allow growth to pick up to 3.7%.” Key indicators 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real GDP growth (%) 1.4 2.0 3.7 4.2 4.4 4.2 Consumer price inflation (av; %) -0.5 0.7 5.4 [...]
The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has broken up an eleven member deep-cover 
Cuba politics: Freedom calls
14 July 2010 at 0937 in Brazil, Catholic Church, China, Commentary, Diplomacy, Fidel Castro, Government, Havana, International Relations, Nomenklatura, Opposition, Politics, Population, Raul Castro, Russia, Spain, US, Vatican, dissidents, prisoners by Armando F. Mastrapa 3d
From the Economist Intelligence Unit:
Tags: Brazil, Castro government, China, cuban americans, Cuban Government, Cuban political prisoners, economist intelligence unit, EU, European Union, Havana, Obama administration, Russia, Spain, US mid-term elections, Venezuela