July 21, 2010
Alvaro Vargas Llosa on the Castro brothers as masterful tacticians: Other releases have lifted people’s hopes in the past. In 1969-70, about 1,300 prisoners were deported. In 1979, after a controversial negotiation with some exiles, 3,600 opponents were set free – and expelled. In 1998, Pope John Paul II’s visit was followed by the release of [...]
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July 14, 2010
From the Economist Intelligence Unit: No democratisation If the prisoners — who include journalists, community organisers and opposition figures — are indeed set free, this would be a major concession on the part of the Castro government. It appears to be designed for external consumption, however. It could lead to improvements in Cuba’s foreign relations, [...]
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Key political risks to watch
January 4, 2012Reuters‘ near term alert to key politcal risks to monitor in Cuba: Resolution of outstanding short-term debt. Signs of increased interest in foreign investment. U.S. inspection of drilling rig. Results of Repsol’s exploratory well. U.S. pressure to stop the drilling. Furthermore, on international relations: A planned Papal visit in March and improved ties with Brazil are bright [...]