Political structure
May 6th 2008
From the Economist Intelligence Unit
Source: Country Report

Official name

Republic of Cuba

Form of government

Centralised political system, with close identification between the PCC and the state

Head of state

The president, Raul Castro, took over from his brother, Fidel, on February 24th 2008

The executive

The Council of Ministers is the highest executive body; its Executive Committee is composed of the president, the first vice-president and the vice-presidents of the Council of Ministers

National legislature

National Assembly of People’s Power; 614 members elected by direct ballot; the Assembly meets twice a year, and extraordinary sessions can be called

Legal system

A People’s Supreme Court oversees a system of regional tribunals; the Supreme Court is accountable to the National Assembly

National elections

Provincial and national assemblies: last elections January 20th 2008; next elections due in January 2012. Municipal elections: last held October 2007; next due in April 2010

National government

The organs of the state and the PCC are closely entwined, and power devolves principally from the Executive Committee of the Council of Ministers

Main political organisation

The Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC) is the only legal political party

President of the councils of state & ministers: Raul Castro Ruz

First vice-president: Jose Ramon Machado Ventura

Vice-president: Carlos Lage Davila

President of the National Assembly: Ricardo Alarcon de Quesada

Key ministers

Agriculture: Maria del Carmen Perez

Armed forces: General Julio Casas Regueiro

Audit & control: Gladys Maria Bejerano Portela

Basic industry: Yadira Garcia Vera

Communications & informatics: Ramiro Valdes Menendez

Culture: Abel Prieto Jimenez

Economy & planning: Jose Luis Rodriguez Garcia

Education: Ana Elsa Velazquez

Finance & prices: Georgina Barreiro Fajardo

Foreign investment & economic co-operation: Marta Lomas Morales

Foreign relations: Felipe Perez Roque

Foreign trade: Raul de la Nuez Ramirez

Government: Ricardo Cabrisas Ruiz

Justice: Maria Esther Reus Gonzalez

Labour & social security: Alfredo Morales Cartaya

Light industry: Estela Dominguez Ariosa

Public health: Jose Ramon Balaguer

Science, technology & the environment: Fernando Gonzalez Bermudez

Sugar: Ulises Rosales del Toro

Tourism: Manuel Marrero Cruz

Transport: Jorge Luis Sierra Cruz

Central Bank president

Francisco Soberon Valdes

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Via Washington Post:

Cuba will convene a Communist Party congress next year to establish guidelines, including for “when the historic generations are no longer around,” President Raúl Castro announced Monday.

The congress, Cuba’s sixth and the first since 1997, follows a series of minor social changes Castro has decreed to make life easier and less restrictive for ordinary Cubans.

“We have worked hard in these past few months,” the president said during a Central Committee gathering in Havana, aired on state television.

The congress is likely to replace some officials of the 25-member party Politburo, and it could replace Fidel Castro as head of the party. Fidel Castro, 81, has not been seen in public since July 2006, and he stepped down as Cuba’s president in February.

Raúl Castro also announced that he had commuted death sentences for several inmates but added that capital punishment would remain on the books.

According to Granma — before the end of the VI Plenary of the Cuban Communist Party held yesterday — Raul Castro announced the proposal by the Politburo to celebrate the VI Party Congress in the final months of 2009. Full text of his speech in Spanish can be read here.

Also announced:

• Commander of the Revolution Ramiro Valdes, Salvador Valdes Mesa, and Army Corps General Alvaro Lopez Miera have been elected as members of the Politburo;

• José Ramón Fernández Álvarez (Vice-President, Council of Minister) and member of the revolutionary old guard will “attend, control, and coordinate”work on education;

• Commute death sentence of several prisoners to a life sentence;

• Politburo’s proposal to establish a Commission, with a reduced number of participants, to make more operational and functional the decision making process, which requires rapid attention and at the same time, permit a collective evaluation. The Commission will be comprised of Raúl Castro Ruz, José Ramón Machado Ventura, Juan Almeida Bosque, Abelardo Colomé Ibarra, Carlos Lage Dávila, Esteban Lazo Hernández y Julio Casas Regueiro, whom coincide with the president, first vice-president, and the vice-presidents of the Council of State;

• Plenary ratified the Politburo’s proposal to perfect Cadres Commission of the Central Committee of the Party as an instrument to fortify the control over the application of policy;

• Plenary also agreed to create seven permanent commissions subordinate to the Politburo, operationally overseen by the Central Committee Secretariat and presided in all cases by its secretary.

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Via Prensa Latina:

Cuba’s Council of State, on a proposal of the Politburo, has appointed Ana Elsa Velazquez Cobiella as new Education Minister, an official note reports Tuesday. Velazquez substitutes Luis Ignacio Gomez Gutierrez. Before her appointment, she was head of the Frank Pais Higher Pedagogical Institute in the eastern province of Santiago de Cuba.

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Economist Intelligence Unit’s briefing on Cuba’s political state:

With Raúl Castro as president, expect little change in Cuba

The selection of Raúl Castro to succeed his brother, Fidel (81), as official president of Cuba confirms that the country is not in for substantive change, not even of the generational kind. Though it was widely believed that the younger brother (76) would rise to the presidency after Fidel’s retirement (announced on February 19th), there was a chance that the National Assembly would pass the reins of power to one of the so-called middle generation of leaders now in their fifties. This did not happen on February 24th, when that body anointed Raúl.

This is the first formal transition of power since the Cuban Revolution of 1959, and for that reason alone it is a milestone. Raúl, however, was already leading the country in his capacity as first vice-president and interim president since July 2006, when Fidel fell ill. Via the Communist Party newspaper, Fidel declared earlier in February that he would neither seek nor accept the presidency when the country’s National Assembly voted on February 24th. He said that his physical condition meant he could no longer fulfil his duties properly.

Not only did the National Assembly not pick a much younger man as president (a possible choice might have been Carlos Lage Dávila, one of six vice-presidents and de facto prime minister). It also selected as first vice-president, and next in the line of succession, José Ramón Ventura, at 77 even older than Raúl. A veteran of the 1959 Revolution, Mr Ventura has most recently served as organisational secretary of the Communist Party and member of its politburo.

Stability expected

With Raúl at the helm, there will be no major shift in Cuba’s political or economic model. Indeed, the new president has indicated that there are no plans to reform the one-party political system. And he has said he will consult with his older brother on all major decisions. Nor is any social upheaval expected.

However, this does not mean that there will be no evolution at all. Raúl has allowed, indeed has promoted, greater scope for criticism, dissent and open debate. Once considered a hardline communist and an enforcer, after assuming the role of acting president he launched a broad national discussion at all levels and has sought to strengthen institutions. The process of debate has continued in recent months in meetings and the state-controlled media, alongside the preparations for the National Assembly elections.

Although not much has come of it so far, the debate has raised expectations that reforms and improvements in living standards are in the pipeline. The areas of discussion have ranged widely, and include criticism of problems in the health service and calls for more private ownership in agriculture.

The government is not expected to make any sudden changes in the overall economic policy stance in the year ahead. However, adjustments in some areas, including price reforms, and liberalisation in food production and distribution, are likely to emerge from the discussion of economic efficiency and living standards. On the other hand, progress in improving the efficiency of economic management will be constrained by conservatism, price distortions and the government’s commitment to full employment. Certainly, full market liberalisation of the type envisaged in the “transition” economies of the former Soviet bloc is not on the agenda.

Still, given Raúl’s own advanced age, speculation will continue as to what might come next, say in five year’s time when the new president’s term ends and he might not seek another. By then the balance of power between the older revolutionaries and the younger leaders may well have changed, raising the possibility of a truer transition to a post-Castro era.

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The Economist has an extensive analysis on Fidel’s retirement:

Fidel Castro has stepped down as president. But the changes that Cubans yearn for will be slow and stealthy while he remains alive
[…]

Mr Castro, ailing and aged 81, this week announced his retirement from the posts of Cuba’s president and its “commander in chief”. But his revolution has long since become a shell, a work of theatre in which the old trouper rants on even as many in the bored audience desperately want to slip away—if only they could. As the curtain comes down on Mr Castro’s 49 years of rule, change is inevitable. But of what kind and at what pace is far less clear.

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The drama that has be faced Cuba’s political stage for the last half century comes to end, or has it? 

At 3:00 AM ET, Granma (Cuban Communist Party’s official paper), published Fidel Castro’s message announcing his retirement. 

He states:

The moment has come to nominate and elect the State Council, its President, its Vice-Presidents and Secretary.

[…]

To my dearest compatriots, who have recently honored me so much by electing me a member of the Parliament where so many agreements should be adopted of utmost importance to the destiny of our Revolution, I am saying that I will neither aspire to nor accept, I repeat, I will neither aspire to nor accept the positions of President of the State Council and Commander in Chief.

Fidel’s historic announcement, symbolically officiates and closes the chapter of succession that began shortly after his provisional resignation, on July 31, 2006  to the position of President of the State Council, which he left to his brother Defense Minister and First Vice-President Raul Castro Ruz.

Might we see Army General Raul Castro as Secretary of the Cuban Communist Party and Commander-in-Chief,  Army Corps General Alvaro Lopez Miera as Defence Minister, Carlos Lage as President of the State Council and a new President of the National Assembly once the outcome is known of Cuba’s national Assembly’s “general election” which will be held on Sunday, February 24? 

The political status quo remains in Cuba in the short-term, however, it remains to be seen what the political landscape will look like in a long-term period.

News coverage of the announcement:  BBC,  New York Times, Reuters, Miami Herald, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, AP, USA Today, ABC, El Pais

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November’s Latell Report as follows:

Fidel Castro’s nearly forty-nine year tenure as Cuba’s de facto and constitutional head of state and government may finally be drawing to a close. National Assembly president Ricardo Alarcon told reporters in Quito in October that Castro may not “be available” to serve another five- year term as president of the Council of State.

Occupying that office since it was created in 1976 under Cuba’s new socialist constitution, Castro has served as head of state while simultaneously presiding as head of government in the role of president of the council of ministers. But to be re-elected for another five-year term he would first have to be chosen as a provincial delegate in regime-controlled elections. Last week Raul Castro issued a cursory announcement that delegates to the provincial assemblies and deputies to the national assembly will be chosen on January 20, 2008. Alarcon seems to be suggesting that Castro will not be a candidate that day, and therefore will be ineligible to continue next year as Cuba’s president.

The assembly president’s remarks stand in sharp contrast to what he has said in the past. Last March, for example, he told a wire service reporter that Castro will be “in perfect shape to run for re-election. I would nominate him. I am sure he will be in perfect shape to continue handling his responsibilities.” This suggests that between March and October Castro’s health, and perhaps his cognitive abilities, have further deteriorated. That would be consistent with rumors that he underwent another life-threatening surgery during the period. Castro has not appeared in public in sixteen months and his most recent taped television interview with a Cuban reporter several months ago revealed him in an obviously handicapped state.

A second ranking official also commented recently on Castro’s prospects. Communist Party Politburo member, Abel Prieto, who, unlike Alarcon is not an authorized or practiced commentator on the subject, suggested to an AP reporter on September 12 that Castro might decide to bow out because of his failing health. “I don’t know what he would say about the state of his health, and I think it depends a lot on that.” But Prieto added an intriguing twist. He proposed that Castro first “would have to convince the people not to be re-elected.”

A third Cuban leader, the most prestigious and influential of them all except for Raul Castro himself, has also recently provided some meaningful clues on the subject. On November 8, while representing Cuba at an Ibero-American summit in Chile, vice president Carlos Lage remarked on the role Castro currently plays in Cuban affairs. “He is working, working hard, every day more,” Lage said. “I’d say he’s reading, studying, analyzing, offering ideas, thoughts, giving us ideas. . .” There was not a word about Castro participating in decision making, consulting or being briefed by other officials, or preparing to reassume any such responsibilities.

Asked whether Castro would resume presidential power, Lage replied evasively. “He’s already assuming tasks, perhaps the most important one a chief of state can have, which is seeding consciousness.” All of this, from three of Cuba’s senior leaders, seems to indicate that Castro has assumed an emeritus role in the leadership and suggests too that by next spring or summer he will no longer be Cuba’s president, though he may be granted some new honorific title instead.

But all this begs the tantalizing question raised by Prieto: exactly how will Castro’s final, irrevocable abdication be orchestrated and explained? Prieto may have meant that, if he is able to, Castro would want to inform the Cuban people in another televised interview, or one or more of his reflections, of his decision to retire. Prieto probably does not really believe the populace is anxious for Castro to return. The reality, as he must appreciate, is quite the opposite. Anecdotal and other evidence indicates that Cubans generally, like most in the leadership class, by now have moved on, accepting –even finding genuine relief—in what is overwhelmingly viewed on the island as the eclipse of the fidelista era.

So perhaps Prieto was referring to Fidel himself. Will he willingly step aside? Is he mentally and emotionally competent to make that decision? Might his physical condition be so precarious that the exercise of any real leadership responsibilities could actually be fatal? Have his wife and children, and possibly other relatives in the huge Castro clan, weighed in urging him to withdraw? Might they, as has been rumored on the island, be counseling Raul and his closest associates to discourage Fidel from any thought of returning?

Most students of his leadership performance could never have imagined that an alive and aware Fidel Castro could voluntarily yield power. But perhaps now, after so many months out of the limelight, out of uniform and out of character, wearing a ridiculous red jogging outfit, not having been seen walking, striding, or standing in his accustomed pose before a speaker’s lectern, he has grudgingly accepted the inevitable.

Yet it may be just as likely that this titanic, narcissistic, unyielding potentate may have to have the power he has craved since the early 1950s wrenched out from under him. Only Raul Castro could do that, and at this point in his brother’s decline, and as troubles and dissatisfaction on the island multiply, the defense minister and acting president may realize that he will soon have no alternative but to do so.

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