Juan Tamayo of El Nuevo Herald has a piece on the 50th anniversary of the Battle at Escambray (the last armed internal combat against the Castro dictatorship.)
Fifty years ago, Rivera was one of up to 4,000 Cubans battling Castro’s brand new government in a little-known, but nasty guerrilla war that raged in parts of the island from roughly 1960 to 1966. The battle is best known for the difficult terrain where the anti-Castro rebels made their stand — in the Escambray, the south central mountain range in Cuba and where the bloodiest fighting took place.
(Image: Escambray guerrillas. By latinamericanstudies.org)
The Geriatric-in-Chief, Fidel Castro, gave a 45 minute speech about the dangers of nuclear war before a mass rally of students at the University of Havana earlier today. [EFE]
“Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict“ is an article published in the periodical International Security I referenced in a July 2008 post, which included the Ladies in White as an example of nonviolent civil resistance, that is a worthwhile read as it addresses the “successful employment of nonviolent methods by organized civilian populations including boycotts, strikes, protests, and organized noncooperation to challenge entrenched power and exact political concessions.”
“We should work together to safeguard in a joint manner the security and interests of both nations,” said Zhou, member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, in a meeting with Army Corps General Abelardo Colomé Ibarra, Cuba’s Minister of the Interior.
According to Who’s Who in China’s Leadership, Zhou has experience in security and law enforcement. He was China’s Minister of Public Security from 2003 to 2007.
ACG Colomé Ibarra also met with Minister of State Security, Geng Huichang, as well as the Minister of Public Security, Meng Jianzhu.
Perhaps the article might be used as a blueprint for Cuban state security to head off their social order challenges.
With Spanish anti-riot equipment and Chinese advisement on security issues, the Castro regime, through its police/paramilitary forces, is well prepared to quell any destabilizing situation in the streets of Havana.
[Image: Chinese security forces in anti-riot gear. By China Elections & Governance.]
Joaquín Roy, professor of Int’l Studies at the University of Miami, posits in an op-ed for El Pais that the Obama Administration’s primary goal of modifying the Bush Administration’s past policies toward Cuba is to create a more solid base guaranteeing U.S. security, thus avoiding the destabilization (internal social explosion and mass exodus) of Cuba.
He describes the Cuban armed forces as:
Exceeding the half-century survival of the Castro regime, the Cuban Army is reduced to functioning as as a local territorial guard force and for internal repression. Its government (in transition or succession by the official transfer of power from Fidel Castro to his brother Raul) lies fully in Havana.”
[...]
Instead of presenting itself as a strategic threat, the Cuban Armed Forces are considered to be the only guarantee in avoiding the disintegration of the social fabric of a country just 100 miles from Key West.
And on Cuban internationalism:
Instead of well-equipped [Cuban] regiments fighting post-colonial wars in Africa as Soviet Union allies, today Cuba uses soft power with the exportation of thousands of doctors and teachers to Venezuela, Bolivia and other countries.
Roy sums up the reality of U.S. policy towards Cuba with “in Washington, stability translates into security.”
Yesterday, the Cuban National Revolutionary Police and state security agents arrested younger members of the opposition in the city of Holguin in Eastern Cuba. [Martí Noticias]
Back in late JuneCUBAPOLIDATA alerted readers to an article on the health crisis in Cuba written by Pulitzer prize-winning science journalist Laurie Garrett, published in the July/August 2010Foreign Affairs magazine.
The complete text is available to read at ihavenet.comand the following is a snippet from the article:
Another problem in Cuba’s health picture is maternal mortality. Because the country’s birthrate is low and its population is aging, the state has placed great emphasis on infant care and survival. But this effort has meant paying insufficient attention to postpartum maternal care. “If a child coughs, they go to the doctor,” one senior doctor at the University of Havana told me, yet mothers often are forgotten after childbirth. Most deaths occur during delivery or within the next 48 hours and are caused by uterine hemorrhage or postpartum sepsis. Cuba also has unusually high rates of death among women with histories of induced abortion, a very common procedure there.
Jerry Brewer of Criminal Justice International Associates pens an op-ed (via Mexidata.info) on whether U.S. concessions are justified in light of the Castro regime’s destabilizing campaign in Latin America and continuous iron grip at home:
As Cuba and Latin America’s leftist regimes continue their efforts to prevent the U.S. from assisting its democratic neighbors with drug interdiction, and in the fight against transnational criminal insurgencies — violence and deaths continue to soar. In Venezuela alone, reports indicate a murder rate of 220 per 100,000 people. This is a higher rate than Mexico’s Ciudad Juarez.
Indeed, Caracas may currently be the most violent city in the world.
The U.S. must remember that Cold War espionage against us, by Cuba, is still alive and well. Too, the Guantanamo base remains a strategic observation hub for Caribbean activities that potentially threaten free people within this hemisphere. And it is clear Fidel Castro wants us out.
President Obama holds the cards. To free the Cuban people is a decision of the Castro regime.
(Image: Front page of August 13 edition of El Nacional showing homicide victims in a Caracas morgue as a result of spiraling violence.)
Havana Timeson luxurious apartments in Havana built for high-ranking officers of the Cuban Army (Ejército Revolucionario) and the MININT (Ministry of the Interior—State Security) in stark contrast with housing units constructed a few miles away in the capital’s community of San Agustin.
Reina Tamayo, mother of deceased political prisoner, Orlando Zapata, is being mistreated by the Cuban government. She is being harassed and repressed from even attending Mass. [Catholic News Agency]
According to a report by Spain’s Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Commerce on defense exports, anti-riot equipment was exported from Spain to Cuba in 2008—destined for the National Revolutionary Police and to be used for the public.
The anti-riot equipment, described in the report within articles related to defense materials, also falls under the category of chemical agents or biological toxins.
(Image: Madrid police officer in anti-riot gear. By Flickr – Oscar in the middle.)
Army General Raúl Castro gave Cubans a reprieve by allowing them to open small businesses, but doubts exist if the measure meets with the goal of reducing a bloated bureaucracy and help reanimate the economy “without market reforms.” The enlargement of “self-employment,” expected by many Cubans and suggested by economists, was announced by Raúl Castro on Sunday before the National Assembly as part of “structural changes” that seeks to make the economic model more efficient and avoiding a collapse of the socialist system. [AFP]
The Daily Telegraph on the future Cuban oligarchs awaiting in the wings for change, while Methuselah returns:
But one group is likely to be watching this strange political dance between the two Castro brothers with concern, as well as frustration: those who are preparing to amass vast personal wealth from Cuba’s eventual return to capitalism. They include senior officials within the regime.
[...]
And just as a select few Russians did after the collapse of Soviet communism, well-connected Cuban officials might make fortunes if they are in a position to control the sale of national assets, or hand out contracts for the development of the currently under-exploited, stagnant economy. Land, property, telecommunications rights, sugar and agriculture are among the many sectors which could be worth billions.
[...]
But who are the potential oligarchs? Esteban Morales has only named Mr Acevedo, the disgraced aviation boss. But his criticism appears to be aimed at corrupt government junior ministers and military bosses who manage parts of Cuba’s sprawling state run businesses.
While all government and military officials officially live on government salaries of as little as £25 a month, some already appear to be living far better-funded lifestyles. At a recent big-game fishing competition at the beach resort of Varadero, the Canadian expatriate competitors were surprised when they saw they were competing against some entirely Cuban teams, in motor yachts worth hundreds of thousands of dollars.
[...]
Yet those who hoped that, under Raul, a capitalist bonanza was about to begin have been disappointed by events over the last two weeks. Fidel Castro’s reappearance seems designed to send the clear message that he is back on the scene – and that, at least for now, real change is not yet in the air.
La Verdad Obrera (LVO), a publication of the Argentine Socialist Workers Party, has an interesting critical piece on the recent political developments in Cuba from a Trotskyist perspective.
The following incisive paragraphs were transcribed from the story:
Bureaucracy and corruption
Accompanying the announcement of prisoners being released and an economic adjustment is the corruption scandal at the highest levels of the state apparatus. Cuban authorities called upon Chilean businessman and Fidel Castro’s friend Max Marambio (ex-MIR militant, custodian to Salvador Allende and Marcos Enriquez Ominami’s presidential campaign director) to appear before them as he is accused of malfeasance and fraud against the Cuban state through his aliment company, Río Zasa. News of this tailspin into a scandal because of the strange death of general manager of the Chilean company Roberto Baudrand. Corruption in the highest levels of government splashed recently upon Cuban ministers Jorge Luis Sierra and Luis Manuel Ávila.
This situation confirms the denouncements reproduced in LVO 382 by Esteban Morales, researcher at the Center of Hemispheric Studies and United States in Havana, who was thrown out of the Cuban Communist Party (PCC) for pointing out that “corruption is the true counterrevolution” (Esteban Morales’s blog, July 7) and correctly signals out that state corruption is the way to place capitalist restoration in leadership circles within the state and PCC.
Bureaucracy and power
The public reappearance of Fidel Castro, even though declarations have not been made, expresses the support of the historic leader to his brother and the existing unity in the old guard gerontocracy of the Castroist bureaucracy that is evermore supported by the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) to exercise power with an iron hand and keep up under his control the new phase of the Cuban political process. The active reappearance of Fidel looks to put a limit to the conflict between different factions of the governing bureaucracy and discipline them in a time beset by a world crisis and financial upheaval, the regime’s challenge is to diminish the crisis over the masses’ movement of taking new steps on the road to pro-capitalist reforms.
In this sense, the release of anti-Castro opposition prisoners is far from being an expansion of freedoms and political rights of the worker and peasant masses of Cuba, so that they can organize themselves to defend their gains (as we Trotskyists explain) express an attempt by the bureaucratic regime, haunted by the specter of financial ruin, to reinforce a political bargaining and making concessions to imperialist and restorationist forces.
(Image: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.)
The Cuban parliament—National Assembly of People’s Power (Asamblea Nacional del Poder Popular, ANPP)—will “debate” on August 1st the country’s critical economic situation in its first annual ordinary session in the middle of expectations among the population of an opening. Permanent commissions, held before the parliamentary meeting, headed by Army General Raúl Castro “will look at important issues such as the economic, political, and social life of the country.” [Juventud RebeldeviaAFP]
Other releases have lifted people’s hopes in the past. In 1969-70, about 1,300 prisoners were deported. In 1979, after a controversial negotiation with some exiles, 3,600 opponents were set free – and expelled. In 1998, Pope John Paul II’s visit was followed by the release of 40 men – and another mass deportation. Few regimes have played more deftly the sinister game of confining and torturing innocent persons in rat-infested jails only to win praise for using them as bargaining chips in subsequent negotiations.
A couple of things make the latest release potentially more meaningful, as some critics, including the Miami-based Cuban American National Foundation, have said. The fact that the decision was made by Raul Castro, an admirer of the “Chinese way” pioneered by Deng Xiaoping, may signify something. The participation of the church, which has gained more recognition these past few days than in the previous half a century, is intriguing. And Cardinal Ortega’s discreet trip to Washington to brief American officials suggests that Raul Castro is interested in some kind of arrangement with the United States. The cardinal, in fact, stressed in his meetings that Raul Castro is serious about reform.
None of which guarantees anything. The safest bet is to assume that the Castros are – for the umpteenth time – taking one step back before taking two steps forward. Raul Castro’s insistence that the prisoners leave the island with their families means he wants to get rid of the independent journalists and the Ladies in White – and abort the embryonic civil society they had painstakingly engendered. But it is not inconceivable, given Raul Castro’s bind, that the regime will try some reform in order to beef up the economy and ensure its survival after Fidel Castro dies – a move that, if it’s to generate international support and investment, will require a degree of political accommodation.
Not even Raul Castro himself knows whether reform will really occur. But one thing is clear: The Black Spring heroes and their Ladies in White have revealed to us, against all odds, that the Castros are not invincible. After 51 years, this is a soothing thought.
Christopher Sabatini, senior director of policy at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas and editor in chief of Americas Quarterly, argues for lifting the communications embargo on Cuba in the July/August 2010 issue of Foreign Policy magazine:
This leaves Washington in a quandary. Last week’s release of the 52 prisoners — independent journalists and human rights activists rounded up in the March, 2003 Black Spring crackdown — may have reduced the number of political prisoners rotting in Cuban jails to the lowest level in decades, but it was still, at best, a superficial act. Restrictions and state control over freedom of association and expression remain and there are still scores of prisoners being held for the inventive and uniquely Cuban offense of peligrosidad — “dangerousness” — often used to round up opponents under vague accusations of espionage. In addition to the now-estimated 120 political prisoners held in Cuban jails, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) contractor Alan Gross, arrested in December for distributing laptops and cell phones to Cuba’s small Jewish community, remains in prison without formal charges brought against him.
Given this, it would be a mistake for Washington to overreact, engaging Havana with open arms over what was, in effect, a publicity stunt by the Castro brothers. On the other hand, intentionally antagonizing the regime by ramping up demands or dismissing the gesture would be equally damaging.
But the United States can respond to this gesture in a way that benefits Cuban society and individuals without legitimizing the regime or provoking a hostile reaction by the anti-Castro lobby in the United States. Ironically, that means doing what President Barack Obama has promised to do all along: follow through on his pledge from last April to loosen restrictions on U.S. telecom activities in Cuba and assist U.S. business in providing the tools for Cubans to communicate beyond the prison walls of the Castros’ island nation.
Unlike lifting the trade embargo on Cuba, which would require an act of Congress, these changes could be made by executive order, avoiding a politically costly battle with pro-embargo legislators. But more importantly, granting greater scope for U.S. telecom companies to sell cell-phones, software, and laptops in Cuba and establish the necessary infrastructure to make them work — such as cell phone towers and routers — would look generous, while loosening the Castro regime’s control over its people.
Earlier today the pro-dialogue/anti-embargo Cuba Study Group founded by Cuban-American businessman Carlos Saladrigas in collaboration with Americas Society/Council of the Americas, and Brookings Institution released a 48-page report on empowering the Cuban people through technology with recommendations for private and public sector leaders.
(Image: Cuban telecommunications monopoly ETECSA telephones. By Ecopolis.)
If the prisoners — who include journalists, community organisers and opposition figures — are indeed set free, this would be a major concession on the part of the Castro government. It appears to be designed for external consumption, however. It could lead to improvements in Cuba’s foreign relations, particularly with Spain and other EU nations. EU foreign ministers will take up the issue of whether to uphold their “common position” on Cuba at their next summit in September. That position requires that the EU conduct an annual assessment of the human-rights situation in Cuba. Spain has been lobbying for some time for that requirement to be dropped.
However, the prisoner releases probably do not signal coming democratisation or any moves to provide Cubans with greater political rights. Moreover, there has been no fundamental shift in the tolerance of opposition. While discussions with Church representatives were under way in early June, the authorities rounded up and briefly detained 37 members of two dissident groups, Agenda para la Transición (Agenda for the Transition) and Unidad Liberal de la República de Cuba (the Cuban Republic’s Liberal Unity). Ostensibly this was to prevent two meetings due to take place in the house of a prominent dissident, Héctor Palacios, although the meetings proceeded any way.
Further, the Cuban Commission on Human Rights claims there are more than 100 additional political prisoners in Cuban jails.
[...]
The administration of President Barack Obama has taken modest steps towards improving relations with Cuba, such as eliminating Bush-era restrictions on travel to the island by Cuban-Americans and on their remittance of funds to their relatives. However, aware that the Cuba problem cannot be solved easily or quickly, the Obama government has decided to make no additional moves on Cuba policy in the approach to the US mid-term elections in November. Nonetheless, a campaign in the US legislature to weaken economic sanctions has continued. Two bills are advancing through Congress, one to facilitate US food sales to Cuba (by eliminating the need for Cuba to pay in cash in advance) and the other to remove restrictions on travel for US citizens. Although improvement on the human-rights front would help these bills’ prospects, final passage is highly uncertain.
[...]
In the absence of normalisation of political and commercial ties with Washington, Cuba’s relations with Venezuela will remain an important source of support for the economy. These are based on favourable terms of trade that link Cuba’s oil imports to the supply of healthcare and education professionals to Venezuela. If Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, were to be forced out of office, there would be a risk that current arrangements might be scaled back.
Partly reflecting this uncertainty, the Cuban authorities will continue to broaden international economic ties with other friendly countries, notably China, Brazil and Russia, which are becoming ever-more important trade partners. Restoring good relations with the EU would also help to mitigate the growing reliance on, and risks associated with, Havana’s links to Venezuela.
Of course we welcome the release of the dissidents, who were arrested during a government crackdown in the spring of 2003, even as we question why the Cuban government needs three to four months to free them, and why the prisoners apparently must trade jail for exile. Furthermore, Elizardo Sanchez, head of the independent Cuban Commission for Human Rights and National Reconciliation, has identified another 115 political prisoners who will not be released. That may be fewer than at any other time since the 1959 revolution, as Sanchez says, but it is still unacceptable.
So too are the laws and lack of due process that landed the dissidents in jail, and the conditions in which they are held. The prisoners are critics of the government, not violent plotters. And it’s too easy for the government to refill the jails; that’s what happened the last time it freed scores of detainees, following Pope John Paul II’s 1998 visit to the island. As Amnesty International stated in a report published last month, “Those who voice views beyond those permitted by the authorities continue to be intimidated and harassed, arbitrarily detained or imprisoned after unfair, often summary, trials.”
CUBA’S leadership understands only too well how starving to death can help a cause. In 2000 Fidel Castro, who had apparently been moved by the plight of Irish republican hunger-strikers, approved the construction in Havana of a memorial to Bobby Sands and his fellow prisoners. Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein’s leader, attended its unveiling.
Now, the same form of protest has been turned on Cuba’s rulers. In February Orlando Zapata, a 42-year-old plumber and bricklayer, died after 12 weeks without food. He was demanding better conditions in Cuba’s grim prisons. A second hunger-striker, Guillermo Fariñas, is critically ill. Although not in jail, he is calling for the release of 25 ailing prisoners. In an online letter he said dying would be an “honour”.
The tactic has worked. On July 7th, Cuba’s Catholic church announced that the government had told it that 52 prisoners arrested in 2003 would be freed from jail. Five were set to leave immediately, and the rest are expected to be liberated (but then exiled) in the next few months. If implemented, it will be Cuba’s first mass-release of political prisoners since 1998.
The hunger strikes were probably what prodded Raúl Castro, who became Cuba’s president in 2006, to act. They were attracting unwelcome attention. In May Jaime Ortega, the cardinal of Havana, negotiated the lifting of a ban on marches by the Ladies in White, a group of wives and mothers of political prisoners, and an end to their harassment by government-organised mobs. He later convinced Raúl Castro to free a paraplegic prisoner, Ariel Sigler.
International pressure also grew stronger. The church called in reinforcements from abroad: last month the Vatican’s senior diplomat, Dominique Mamberti, went to Cuba and met the president. That trip was followed on July 6th by a visit from Miguel Ángel Moratinos, Spain’s foreign minister. The timing of the prisoners’ release—as well as the decision to send the first five to Spain—seems to have been aimed at giving Mr Moratinos something to show for his effort.
Official Cuban media damns political prisoners as “mercenaries” in the pocket of the United States. This release will reduce their number by about a third, leaving 100 or so in jail—half the average of recent years. The outbreak of clemency suggests that Raúl Castro may have decided that exiling dissidents is easier than locking them up: as one Western diplomat in Havana says, the president “seems to view [the prisoners] as an unfortunate inheritance from his brother.” Their release will improve relations with the European Union, which will meet in September to discuss Cuba, and encourage those in America who want to loosen trade and travel restrictions on the country.
But Fidel Castro, who is still the power behind the throne in Cuba, may block any attempt to free the remaining prisoners, even if they are sent overseas. In 1955, as a young revolutionary, he was freed from jail by Fulgencio Batista, a dictator, following international pressure. He knows better than anyone what happened next.
For decades, the Castro government has been very effective in repressing dissent in Cuba by, among other things, preventing its critics from publishing or broadcasting their views on the island. Yet in recent years the blogosphere has created an outlet for a new kind of political criticism that is harder to control. Can it make a difference? [New York Review of Books Blog]
U.S. Army War College‘s Strategy Research Project released earlier this year two unclassified student reports on U.S.—Cuba policy.
Both reports characterize U.S. foreign policy of the last half-century towards Cuba as a failure. Thus, these reports give an inkling to the mindset of officers from the U.S. Army War College about the strategy of fostering democratic transition in Cuba.
The first report, “United States Security Strategy Towards Cuba,” is written by Lieutenant Colonel Sergio M. Dickerson (U.S. Army). Lt. Col. Dickerson questions whether Cuba poses a security threat to the United States, and contends:
Although Cuba poses no traditional threats to the U.S., geographically, their 90-mile proximity should concern us. Our proximity to Cuba assures U.S. involvement, be it voluntary or involuntary, in a major crisis. Consider a disease outbreak that begins in Cuba over a break down in hygiene, government pollution or other misfortune attributable to economic strife. The disease has no boundaries and quickly reaches the Florida shores via travelling Cuban American citizens. This scenario could be mitigated or even preventable under the auspices of better relations. Aside from the obvious medical benefits a partnership provides, established communications with Cuba would likely prevent an uncontrolled spread in the U.S.
Regarding U.S. policy, he suggests:
Building American and Congressional support for engagement…establish a formal infrastructure establish a formal infrastructure that communicates to Cuba and the International Community at large that we’re serious about diplomatic engagement with Cuba. Finally, we must loosen embargo restrictions and expose Cubans to U.S. open markets, business opportunities and 21st Century living.
Colonel Lance R. Koenig (U.S. Army) wrote the second report, entitled: “Time for a New Cuba Policy.” Col. Koenig writes:
Nearly fifty years of attempts to isolate Cuba through economic sanctions, travel restrictions, and broken diplomatic relations has not provided the results the United States policy towards Cuba aimed to achieve. It is time for the United States to pursue its national interests with regard to Cuba and implement a completely new policy in order to improve regional security and economic stability in Latin America.
He recommends:
The option with the greatest possibility of success and reward for the United States is to support the Cuban people, but not the Cuban government.
Lift completely the economic embargo. Establish banking and financial relationships to facilitate the trading of goods and services between the two countries.
Lift completely the travel ban to allow not only Cuban-Americans with relatives but also all other Americans to travel to Cuba. This interaction of Americans with Cubans will help raise the awareness of Cubans about their northern neighbor.
Lift completely the travel ban to allow not only Cuban-Americans with relatives but also all other Americans to travel to Cuba. This interaction of Americans with Cubans will help raise the awareness of Cubans about their northern neighbor.
Col. Koenig also briefly addresses the issue of property restitution:
This leaves the issue of compensation for United States companies and individuals whose property was expropriated by the Cuban government. With the embargo lifted, the United States should enlist the assistance of the European Union and Canada to apply pressure to Cuba as well as to assist in negotiations with the World Trade Organization to address issues with illegally confiscated property.
Cuba has plans to split the province of Havana into two provinces in a move to make local government more efficient, state-run media said.
The division would cut travel distances for provincial employees, make services more accessible and add local political clout by giving each province its own capital.
The idea, hatched by the Cuban government and awaiting approval by the national parliament, appears to be part of Army General Raul Castro’s drive to improve the country’s productivity.
The two provinces, which have been proposed by the national government and await approval by the Cuban parliament, would be called Mayabeque and Artemisa.
[...]
The split would increase the number of provinces in Cuba by one, to 15.
Cuba’s government has allowedGranma (Cuban Communist Party’s newspaper) to publish letters to the editor (here and here) critical of an economy devastated by decades of corruption and centralized power.
(Image: Granma, Carta a la dirección, 7 May 2010.)
Dr. José Azel (University of Miami) will present his book, Mañana in Cuba: The Legacy of Castroism and Transitional Challenges for Cuba, which book explores the mindset of Cubans living in a totalitarian system and the multitude of obstacles present in modern-day Cuba at Books and Books in Coral Gables, Florida on Wednesday, June 2 — Courtyard Reception: 7 p.m; Presentation: 8 p.m.
Esquire magazine takes a look at the statistics of countries that ban gays from serving in the military and that also embrace the death penalty.
Cuba, along with 16 other countries (see above infographic), ban homosexuals from serving in the military and also execute people.
The others are: China, Egypt, Iran, Jamaica, Nigeria, North Korea, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Uganda, United States, and Yemen.
Civil Defense Chief Division General Ramón Pardo Guerra, who arrived in Moscow last Sunday, met with Russian Minister of Emergency Situation Serguei Shoigu and attended today the inauguration ceremony of the 2010 Intergrated Safety and Security Exhibition (ISSE) fair at the All-Russia Exhibition Center in Moscow, reports Cuban state media.
Fair exhibits include Fire Protection, Rescue Equipment, Security Technical Systems and Equipment, Transport Safety, Armament and Technical Equipment of Special Forces Units, Industrial Safety, Technical Facilities for Border and Customs Control, Equipment for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Safety, Information and Communication Security.
Of particular interest to the Cuban FAR (Revolutionary Armed Forces) and MININT (Ministry of Interior) would be the Armament and Technical Equipment of Special Forces Units exhibit for the potential use of new technologies to enforce stability operations in Havana that would provide security for the regime.
DG Pardo Guerra and his delegation will watch EMERCOM forces demonstration exercises in Noguinsk city, which is the closing program of the International Security Hall 2010 on Friday, May 21.
The goal of ISSE “is to provide effective cooperation between executive authorities and manufacturers of safety and security products in order to promote up-to-date technologies both to domestic and foreign markets of security systems and equipment.”
Reuterson the underground two-man Cuban rap group (“Los Aldeanos”—The Villagers) who live on the edge and whose music is deemed by the Cuban government as anti-establishment and too critical to be played on state-run radio stations or sold in shops.
Frank Norton, a Florida real estate executive, writes in the Gainsville Times about what he and his wife experienced in their recent trip to Cuba:
Today, the Cuban people have lost all personal freedom, lost all personal property and now occupy government-owned, rotting, worn-out buildings that are crumbling around them. There is no pride of ownership, little pride of country; the communist government has taken much of this away from the once thriving Garden of Eden. Alas, poor Babylon.
[...]
Today’s Cuba is run by a small band of grumpy old men, distant and out of touch with the modern world and modern civilizations. These men, victorious in their waltz (not fight) into Havana on New Year’s Eve 1959, continue to celebrate their victory 51 years later while the spoils (Cuba) crumble around them.
Victorious yes; winners no! The past is past. Today’s reality is underemployment for 11 million people, living in huts, widespread poverty, rolling shortages and economic collapse. This Garden of Eden is overgrown with tangled twisted jungle and the biggest jungles are in the tangled minds of grumpy old men.
Independence will be difficult.
Is Cuba lost? Time has perhaps passed by Cuban independence; the generation that fled Cuba to America is 50 years older, the passionate revolutionaries, future liberators of a communist Cuba, are now dead.
Will their children have the same passion and drive to liberate, the desire to reclaim their country? Or will they, as American citizens, see their heritage as just a sidebar to their lives in their adopted country?
Who will lead Cuba back to the promised land? Who will be passionate enough to liberate Cuba? And bring it back into the 20th century, much less the 21st?
In the museum La Revolution, we saw a quote by a 1959 Castro that is a haunting message even for today: “For the first time in the history of this country, the people and the government have left aside the rich side and have joined the poor side.”
Former Mexican Foreign Affairs Minister Jorge Castañeda questions whether this is the beginning of the end of the Castro regime in his El País op-ed, where he formulates three factors precipitating an end: (i) a fierce economic crisis; (ii) the death of Orlando Zapata, Damas de Blanco movement and Guillermo Fariñas hunger strike; and (iii) Fidel Castro is no longer at the helm of day-to-day affairs.
Cuban Vice President Jose Ramon Machado Ventura during the sessions of the National Association of Small Farmers (ANAP) of the provinces of Matanzas, Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus on Sunday announced that the country invests more than $1.5 Billion dollars annually buying food, part of which can be substituted by national products if the areas of cultivation and the yields increase.
Also in attendance were Cuban Minister of Agriculture, Ulises Rosales del Toro, and ANAP President Orlando Lugo Fonte addressing key elements on the development of Cuban agriculture.
Martin Arostegui writes in tomorrow’s Washington Times:
A U.S. intelligence official said that Cuban intelligence officers also have been planted throughout Venezuela’s Foreign Ministry and that Venezuelan ambassadors posted overseas have been identified as Cuban intelligence officers.
Intelligence officers in Colombia, who have kept a close eye on Venezuela because of guerrilla activity at the borders and constant threats from Mr. Chavez to wage war on Colombia’s U.S.-backed government, have said that Cuba has established a “parallel chain of command” within the military.
Yesterday, Army General Raul Castro delivered a speech (full text here) before the 9th Young Communists League (UJC) Congress at Havana’s Convention Center.
Some excerpts of his speech as the Cuban government becomes more entrenched:
Today, more than never before, the economic battle is the main task and the focus of the ideological work of the cadres, because it is on this work that the sustainability and the preservation of our social system rest.
Without a sound and dynamic economy and without the removal of superfluous expenses and waste, it will neither be possible to improve the living standard of the population nor to preserve and improve the high levels of education and healthcare ensured to every citizen free of charge.
[...]
If we do not build a firm and systematic social rejection of illegal activities and different expressions of corruption, more than a few will continue to make fortunes at the expense of the majority’s labors while disseminating attitudes that crash into the essence of socialism.
[...]
As I said at the beginning, the celebration of this Congress has coincided with a huge smearing campaign against Cuba, a campaign orchestrated, directed and financed by the imperial power centers in the United States and Europe, hypocritically waging the banners of human rights.
[...]
The young Cuban revolutionaries have a clear understanding that to preserve the Revolution and Socialism, and to continue having dignity and being free, they still have ahead many more years of struggle and sacrifices.
A Lady in White is being choked by a female member of the Cuban government's security forces in Havana. Image: AP
Police forcibly took some 30 women off the streets Wednesday as they marched in a protest led by the mother of a political prisoner who died in a hunger strike, an AFP journalist witnessed.
The “Ladies in White” were heckled by hundreds of government supporters as they marched through Havana with the mother of Orlando Zapata, who died in a prison hunger strike February 23.
Police moved in and female officers forced the dissidents into two buses and drove them to the home of group leader, Laura Pollan, where they were dropped off and allowed to go free, a member of the group told AFP.
“The Prosecutor and Municipal Tribunal, as well as the offices of the Department of Justice, continue to perform in peacetime. Except in a case where an exceptional situation is declared, tribunals and sector prosecutors will be activated, and special legislation will be applied under the principle of unique military jurisdiction.”
The above referenced quote comes from an informative article published last month by CubaNet entitled “Legislación especial,” which was written by independent journalist Odelín Alfonso Torna.
Torna alerts to the ramifications of information technology and high tech devices that Cubans now have access to (e.g. USB flash drives, mobile phones, iPods) whereby the Cuban government is loosing control of information. Even government employees are violating security regulations exposing confidential information that is being leaked and disseminated to the populace.
He warns of an unexpected special legislation for exceptional situations (e.g. foreign invasion and popular revolt) as Cubans are presently facing repression at its “highest magnitude.”
Adm. Dennis C. Blair, Director of National Intelligence, presented his testimony today on the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
His testimony stressed: “Latin America Stable, but Challenged by Crime and Populism.”
Kenneth Chandler’s (a former editor and publisher of the New York Post) op-ed on the catastrophe in the making for Cuba.
Havana is a city of sorrow — a once elegant and prosperous capital brought to despair by 51 years of deliberate neglect and isolation. A country that has been plundered by a succession of foreign powers, homegrown dictators and mobsters imported from America now languishes in a bizarre time warp where little has changed in more than half a century.
Its people go about their daily routines bereft of consumer goods, nutritious foods, meaningful jobs or adequate housing — most of them born after the revolution that swept Castro to power in 1959 and now, thanks to rigid censorship, largely conditioned to accept their impoverished lot.
To listen to Castro’s cronies — those among the political and business elite whose loyalty is secured with perks unavailable to ordinary Cubans — the economic situation is solely the fault of the US embargo imposed after the revolution.
More thoughtful Cubans discreetly offer a different explanation: They blame Fidel’s feckless experiments with communism — his initial seizure of $25 billion worth of private property from Cubans and the nationalization of all businesses, forcing the middle class to flee to Miami; his bizarre decision to send 300,000 Cubans out of a population of only 11 million to fight wars in Africa in the 1980s; his Cold War alliance with the Russians that left his country bankrupt and saddled with antiquated technology when the Soviet Union collapsed.
La Razón reports the Zapatero government has responded to a parliamentary question submitted by the Spanish Congress of Deputies admitting that the Cuban regime has turned the screws of political repression and persecution of “political prisoners”.
In the “last couple of months, Cuban authorities have developed a new pattern of political persecution, characterized by short arbitrary detentions and utilizing as an argument ‘pre-criminal social dangerousness’ for such actions that have affected several important persons.”
Cuba ended 2009 with slightly fewer political prisoners but continues to have the worst human rights in the Western Hemisphere with no improvement in sight, said the Cuban Commission on Human Rights and National Reconciliation.
There were 201 dissidents behind bars, down from 208 at mid-year, but CCHRNR charged that the Cuban government had stepped up harassment of opponents with brief detentions and physical intimidation.
The independent commission said Cuba “continues to have the worst record on fundamental rights in the Western Hemisphere,” with nothing “to indicate the current leaders are inclined to initiate reforms.” (via Reuters)
Along the Malecon has background on Alan P. Gross (apparently a beltway insider), the U.S. contractor arrested in Cuba and accused by the Cuban government of working for U.S. intelligence. Gross, who in fact according to American officials, had gone to Cuba to provide communications equipment to Jewish nonprofit organizations.
Castro dies of natural causes under questionable circumstances. His brother Raul is still in control of the apparatus. An enormous funeral and wake is observed throughout the nation, but within days after the wake, Cubans begin to demonstrate openly against the post-Castro regime. Raul accelerates liberalizing policies and carefully consolidates preferential property rights for the Cuban Communist Party, including ownership of information systems and key foreign currency owners such as tourist hotels. This cynical abandonment of the revolution in favor of privileged survival is transparent to lower-ranking bureaucrats and outer-circle rivals. Violence breaks out between major institutions with historic grudges, and the competition is fueled as exile leaders and money are attracted to the fray. Leverage is soon applied to change migration, investment, banking and property ownership policies. Once this happens, the regime loses effective political control.
The above referenced quote is a scenario presented in a special issue of Military Review dedicated to Operations other than War published in January 1994.
In a sign of further fracturing in Cuba’s infrastructure, more than 50% of the water pumped in the island does not reach its destination because of ruptures in networks of water mains and as a result, consumption is double than necessary, reports Cuban state media.
Cities with major damage are La Habana, Holguín, Camagüey, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba (which has the worst problem).
The Cuban government’s 2010 plan is to repair 559 miles of water networks by replacing water pipes with new ones.
Cubans pay on average a peso ($0.07) for water usage.
Septuagenarian Jose Ramon Machado Ventura addressing members of the Young Communists Union. (Image: JR)
José Ramón Machado Ventura, the 79-year-old first vice-president of Cuba, warned that “these years are hard” and denied that there is a lack of leaders replacing the governing elite, informs Cuban state media.
Machado Ventura presided over a meeting of the Young Communists Union (Unión de Jóvenes Comunistas (UJC) in Cienfuegos assuring “the leaders of the future are in all places”.
Cuban bloggers hold meeting called Blogger Journey in May 2009. (Image: Generation Y)
A new revolution is making headway in Cuba. Discreet but unstoppable. Slick and irreverent. It’s called the alternative blogosphere and it is making the Castro brothers nervous, whom last Friday reached 51 years in power. The protagonists are hundreds of young men and women (and some who are a lot older) that have proposed to break a siege of censorship and to ventilate a closed society on the island for half a century. Their weapons are computers and memory sticks. And despite all the obstacles, are managing to weave a network of rebellion that begins to move from cyberspace to the streets. (via El País)
Cuba’s Office of National Statistics (Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas (ONE) released last month a report entitled: “Economic and Social Panorama, Cuba 2009″, which provides information on the development of demographic, economic and social indicators for 2009.
Will 2010 usher in a new "El Maleconazo" (the most significant demonstration of social unrest in the island), which occurred on the streets of Havana's famous seawall in August, 1994.
Infolatam analyzes the precarious economic and political situation be facing the Castro regime the year ahead:
Cuba will live a very difficult year in 2010 due to an economic crisis drowning the Castroite regime. Raúl Castro will introduce cuts to social programs reducing costs that could ultimately cause protests to become a reality. Two great unknowns of the year will center on Fidel Castro’s state of health and how advanced will talks be with the Obama administration.
Before Cuba’s parliament on Sunday, Army General Raúl Castro warned that there will be no tolerance for “provocative activities” and much less on the streets.
Latinobarómetro published this week its current survey on the state of democracy in Latin America, however, the Cuban population did not take part in it, but the perception of the regime is object of analysis.
Latin Americans give Cuba a 4.1 on a scale of 10, the lowest score given to the countries measured.
Evaluation of leaders
Fidel Castro is the worst rated leader scoring 4 on a scale of 10 (0 being the worst; 10 very good), only ahead of Hugo Chávez.
A demonstrator, second from right, is grabbed by unidentified men during a march organized by dissidents to commemorate the Human Rights Day in Havana. 20091210 (AP Photo)
Government supporters screaming insults and slogans broke up two tiny International Human Rights Day marches Thursday and chased away a British diplomat onlooker, pounding on his car as he drove away.
Hundreds of enraged Cubans confronted a march led by Yusnaimi Jorge, wife of Darcy Ferrer, a black physician and veteran dissident who had headed demonstrations every Dec. 10 but has been behind bars since this summer for buying black market cement.
“This street is Fidel’s,” the crowd yelled as a group of men in plainclothes, believed to be state security agents, ringed the demonstrators, eventually placing them in unmarked vehicles.
The pro-government crowd also pursued observer Chris Stimpson, second secretary of the British Embassy, shouting at him until he fled to his car, then ringing the vehicle and banging on it. He returned to his office without further incident.
Surveillance cameras with the pretext of traffic control will also be used to spy on the populace for suspicious activities. (Image: El Pais)
Fifty surveillance cameras have been placed in the most important streets of Havana, which are operated by the national police. The network of cameras should be increasing and contributing to the security of the populace, reports El País.
Cuba hit back at 60 prominent U.S. black leaders who challenged its race record, with island writers, artists and official journalists calling the criticism an attack on their country’s national identity.
The five-page signed statement, distributed by Cuban government press officials in an e-mail, defended Cuba’s progress in providing social and personal opportunities for blacks and people of mixed race.
Division General Leonardo Andollo Valdés (Deputy Chief, General Staff) announced for the first time on Cuban state television that the Cuban military prepares for internal warfare against the people.
However, with Bastion 2009, that fundamental is evolving for the first time to include for the preparation of the armed forces’ internal war against the people.
La Jornada reports Division General Leonardo Andollo Valdés’ (Deputy Chief, General Staff) comments on the Mesa Redonda (Round Table) state television program surrounding the FAR and MININT’s military exercises beginning today.
Was this a slip of the tongue for Andollo or was he sanctioned by the military hierarchy to make it abundantly clear for internal/external consumption the government’s plan to crush, without hesitation, social instability affecting internal security?
The economic implosion (e.g. energy crisis, falling exports, limited capital inflow, eliminating food rationing booklet) the Cuban government faces caused by a stagnate command economy with meager traces of capitalism is propelling an inevitable social upheaval that the military and security forces will confront.
Bastion 2009 exercises are further evidence of such a fundamental change to the military’s mission to now quash social instability which has been publicly announced by a high-ranking general of the Cuban military’s high command.
Granma, the Cuban Communist Party daily, announced in its front page that this is most important military exercise in the last five years even with the austerity caused by an economic crisis but conducted with efficiency.
A Council of Ministers circular, dated Oct. 21 and which reduced government power allocations, termed the energy situation “critical” and called for “extreme measures” through December.
“The energy situation we face is critical and if we do not adopt extreme measures we will have to revert to planned blackouts affecting the population,” said the order, which was seen by Reuters.
All provincial governments and most state-run offices and factories, which encompass 90 percent of Cuba’s economic activity, were already ordered in June to reduce energy use by a minimum of 12 percent or face mandatory electricity cuts.
The situation is not as dire as in the 1990s because Cuba receives 93,000 of the 150,000 barrels of oil per day that it consumes from strategic ally Venezuela on preferential terms.
“Security measures can be ordered to prevent the commission of crimes or as a result of their having been committed. In the first case they are called pre-criminal security measures; and in the second, post-criminal security measures.” Cuba Criminal Code, “Dangerousness” Law, Chap. III, Art. 76, Sec. 1
El País, Spain’s center-left daily, published an editorial today on repression in Cuba, referencing the “dangerousness” law of the Cuban criminal code that is reminiscent of Philip K. Dick’s futuristic short story The Minority Report, which describes Precrime, a system which punishes people with imprisonment for crimes they would have committed.
They number just a few dozen and hardly anyone can read them – but Cuba’s government has already decided it does not like blogs.
They are new, number just a few dozen and hardly anyone can read them – but Cuba’s government has already decided it does not like independent blogs.
The island’s blogosphere is tiny but represents a threat to authorities who have spent half a century censoring and controlling information.
About a third of the island’s estimated 300 blogs operate without official approval, according to the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists. They range from outspoken political forums such as Voz Tras Las Rejas (Voice From Behind Bars), which includes posts dictated by Pablo Pacheco, who has been jailed since 2003, to wry, whimsical observations about life under tropical communism.
Fewer than 2% of people in Cuba are estimated to have internet access, with cybercafes limited largely to serving foreign tourists. Cuba appears to block fewer sites than China and relies more on prohibitive cost to curb bloggers’ access and impact.
The report “shows how the Raúl Castro government has relied in particular on the Criminal Code offense of “dangerousness,” which allows authorities to imprison individuals before they have committed any crime, on the suspicion that they are likely to commit an offense in the future. This “dangerousness” provision is overtly political, defining as “dangerous” any behavior that contradicts Cuba’s socialist norms.”
Here are segments of the executive summary:
In July 2006, Fidel Castro handed control of the Cuban government over to his brother Raúl Castro. As the new head of state, Raúl Castro inherited a system of abusive laws and institutions, as well as responsibility for hundreds of political prisoners arrested during his brother’s rule. Rather than dismantle this repressive machinery, Raúl Castro has kept it firmly in place and fully active. Scores of political prisoners arrested under Fidel Castro continue to languish in Cuba’s prisons. And Raúl Castro’s government has used draconian laws and sham trials to incarcerate scores more who have dared to exercise their fundamental freedoms.
Raúl Castro’s government has relied in particular on a provision of the Cuban Criminal Code that allows the state to imprison individuals before they have committed a crime, on the suspicion that they might commit an offense in the future. This “dangerousness” provision is overtly political, defining as “dangerous” any behavior that contradicts socialist norms. The most Orwellian of Cuba’s laws, it captures the essence of the Cuban government’s repressive mindset, which views anyone who acts out of step with the government as a potential threat and thus worthy of punishment.
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While this report documents a systematic pattern of repression, it does not intend to suggest that there are no outlets for dissent whatsoever in Cuba. The last three years have, for example, witnessed the emergence of an independent Cuban blogosphere, critical lyrics by musicians, and most recently a series of government-organized public meetings to reflect on Cuban socialism.
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The Cuban government has for years refused to recognize the legitimacy of independent human rights monitoring and has adamantly refused to allow international monitors, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross and international nongovernmental organizations like Human Rights Watch, to visit the island and investigate human rights conditions. In researching this report, Human Rights Watch made repeated written requests to the Raúl Castro government for meetings with authorities and formal authorization to conduct a fact-finding mission to the island. As in the past, the Cuban government did not respond to any of our requests.
As a result, Human Rights Watch decided to conduct a fact-finding mission to Cuba without official permission in June and July 2009. During this trip, Human Rights Watch researchers conducted extensive interviews in seven of the island’s fourteen provinces. We also conducted numerous interviews via telephone from New York City. In total, we carried out more than 60 in-depth interviews with human rights defenders, journalists, former political prisoners, family members of current political prisoners, members of the clergy, trade unionists, and other Cuban citizens.
Army General Raul Castro has taken his time to make “structural changes,” which have arrived, e.g. the rationing booklet (libreta de racionamiento) has its days numbered.
It is foreseen that Cubans’ desperation will generate conflicts but also the adoption of other measures such as currency unification.
To halt such an impact, the government has asked the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution (Comités de Defensa de la Revolución (CDR) to prepare neighbors for upcoming hard times.
CDR’s will conduct a census of resident workers and increase surveillance to prevent illegalities, i.e. renting out rooms without a state license or sell aliments on the black market.
Click here to read the rest of El Correo Digital article.
Over the past decade, the rise of youth movements applying nonviolent methods of resistance against autocratic incumbents occurred in the post-Soviet region. This protest cycle was set in motion by the spectacular mobilization of Serbia’s social movement Otpor against Slobodan Milosevic in 2000. Similarly, Ukraine’s Pora in 2004 and, to a lesser extent, Georgia’s Kmara in 2003 mobilized large numbers of young people to demand political change in the aftermath of fraudulent elections. In contrast, Belarus’ Zubr in 2001/2006 and an assortment of Azerbaijan’s youth groups in 2005 were less effective in staging nonviolent struggle against autocratic incumbents. This paper provides an explanation for divergent social movement outcomes in non-democracies by investigating the dynamics of tactical interaction between challenger organizations and the ruling elite. The paper argues that both civic activists and autocratic incumbents engaged in processes of political learning. Hence, tactical innovation was vital to the success of youth movements, especially late risers in the protest cycle.
Nikolayenko begins with: “Over the past decade, a wave of youth mobilization against repressive political regimes has swept the post-communist region. Thousands of young people took to the street to demand political change at a critical juncture in domestic politics, the election period.”
She argues throughout her paper that tactical innovation (experimentation with the choice of frames, protest strategies and interaction styles with allies) was vital to the success of youth movements.
Can the tactics used by these youth movements in post-Communist societies be replicated in a post-Castro/post-Communist Cuba?
Predicting such a happenstance is possible as Cuba’s future political landscape may change with one repressive ruling elite supplanted by another (through force, succession, or democratic transition) challenged by an increasingly younger demographic that has become a vocal opposition, e.g. bloggers.
Moreover, historically recent instances described in this insightful paper are worthy of examination.
Small though the change is, it is of huge symbolic import. It is the first step in a wider, albeit stealthy, abandonment of Fidel Castro’s half-century effort to forge a “new man” in Cuba by limiting individual reward in favour of all-embracing social provision, with the state imposing its choice of consumption as well as of production. Granma said that after the plan was “perfected” some 3.5m Cubans could expect their 24,700 workplace canteens to close too, and would get a similar wage increase.
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Cuba is close to bankruptcy. Foreign businesses have been waiting for months for permission to transfer abroad hundreds of millions of dollars in profits from joint ventures that are sitting in local banks. The government has slashed imports by more than 30% this year, and budgets for state companies and ministries have also been cut. Cuba does not produce enough and its population is ageing. Theft and absenteeism are rife in workplaces across the island.
Raúl has placed trusted military men in charge of economic policy. Their aim is to save foreign exchange and raise output. They reckon that Cubans do not value the true cost of free services. Workplace canteens used some $350m in imported food last year, according to Granma.
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What nobody is saying publicly is that Raúl is tossing into the dustbin of Cuban history the idea espoused by Ernesto “Che” Guevara, at the start of the revolution that Cuba’s communist economy should be based on “moral incentives”, rather than material ones, and that this process would create a “new man”. Through various zigzags Fidel never wholly relinquished that idea. When opponents criticise Cubans’ derisory wages (averaging $20 per month), officials always point to the additional “social wage” of free housing, health, education, transport and food rations.
Some of this will now go. Raúl, a practical man, has no time for Utopianism. He gives every sign of knowing that if Cuban communism is to survive its founders it will have to supply people with a few more material goods. But he may find it hard to raise wages by much without more radical reform.
PAIS director Cesar Alvarado (r) forming a cavalry. Image: El Universal
It looks like Ecuador is adopting Cuba’s CDR model to surveil rural areas of the country, reports El Universal.
A force of 15,000 members is being proposed first for Manabi province.
Cesar Alvarado, director of PAIS, said: “The CDR (Committee of Citizen Revolution — Comites de Revolucion Ciudadana) will be responsible for monitoring the Citizen Revolution Project promoted by president of the republic Rafael Correa.”
Alvarado rejects criticism of the CDR. He said one of the functions of its members will be a permanent vigilance of government works executed in rural communities.
He further added, “We don’t want to be demonized by saying we will be like Cuba. The CDRs are for strengthening democracy and not allow what happen to Honduran president Zelaya, a coup d’ etat to take place.”
Nearly two decades after the end of the Cold War, Cuba remains a policy dilemma for the United States. The transition from Fidel Castro to his brother Raúl, which began when Raúl assumed the responsibilities of the presidency of the Council of State on July 31, 2006, as a result of Fidel’s illness, is still ongoing after three years. Fidel remains alive—perhaps even to a point revived—but with very limited exercise of authority. Raúl has taken charge of government, but he must still contend with Fidel’s legendary presence.
Expectations of change under Raúl Castro have been largely unmet; continuity remains the key theme of his regime. Meanwhile, the election of Barack Obama in the United States has resulted in a reexamination of U.S. policy toward Cuba, including some meaningful, however limited, first steps to reach out to the regime in Havana. The U.S.-Cuba bilateral relationship is likely to remain a work in progress well into the future. This report, which outlines conclusions reached from the seven panel discussions with experts in the field, is intended as a point of reference for decisionmakers in and out of government who deal with Cuba.
Cubans began taking a hard look this week at entrenched customs like food rationing, pilfering on the job, cradle-to-grave subsidies and black market trading in a national debate called by Army General Raul Castro. Authorities have circulated a ten-point agenda for thousands of open-ended meetings over the next month at work places, universities and community organizations to “rethink” Cuban socialism, focused on the economic themes highlighted by Castro in a speech to the National Assembly in August.
The Spanish daily, El País, presents Varas Llosa’s clear thoughts on some present Latin American leaders and the role that some governments, such as Spain’s, are playing in regards to them: “In Latin America, in contrast to counties like Spain, democracy is not there to stay. There is always the posibility of taking steps backward. This is seen in the clear involution of countries like Nicaragua, Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia. Instead, other leftist governments, such as Brazil’s have demonstrated more common sense and have realized that to progress they have to believe in a market economy.”
On the issue of Cuba:
“Of course I was mistaken. I defended the Cuban revolution. I believed that it represented what we were looking for; a society stemmed with liberty. The truth is I wanted to believe in what I wanted to see, but I have recognized my errors. The worst is persisting in that error. Regarding present day Cuba, one can ask, how is it possible that the Cuban populace does not do the same in rebelling as was done by Poles and Hungarians. Having reached the conclusion that “a totalitarian dictatorship like Cuba’s kills whatever spirit of hope and primary impetus of liberty. Today in Cuba, hope is reduced to taking a boat and leaving for Miami.”
The rest of Vargas Llosa’s thoughts on Evo Morales, Hugo Chavez, Alvaro Uribe, and Perú, Colombia and Brasil from the El País article can be found here.
A crackdown on corruption by Army General Raul Castro is causing consternation among ordinary Cubans, who say it is biting into the flourishing black market and reducing a prized source of cheaper food and other items.
The complaints are tempered by the expectation that inventive Cubans, driven by economic necessity and seasoned by years of filching from the centralized socialist economy, will soon restore the pipeline of illicit goods to full flow.
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But Cubans say the offer of products on the black market, where goods generally are much cheaper than in stores, has dropped off noticeably. The average salary in Cuba is about $20 a month, so the black market helps Cubans stretch their money or, if they are sellers, supplement their income.
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Castro’s transfer of many retail businesses to military control has caused state employees who once routinely stole goods to stop, or at least think twice. Military managers are said to exercise better inventory control and be less tolerant of filching.
In a speech marking Revolution Day, Fidel Castro’s successor, Army General Raul Castro, said that the global economic crisis means tougher times ahead for Cuba, but the country has no one to blame but itself for poor farm production that leads to frequent shortages of fruits, vegetables and other basics.
Earlier this month the National Defense Council met at MINFAR (Ministry of the Revolutionary Armed Forces) headquarters.
The annual assessment on the state of Cuba’s national defense was presided by Army Corps General Raúl Castro Ruz.
The Council’s findings saw “achievements in training regular troop combatants, both active and reserve, and those of the Territorial Troop Militias.”
Army Corps General Castro noted, “Operation Caguairán was decisive to those achievements, and was initiated in mid-2006. It is a concept that has come to stay, because it has signified a qualitative leap in terms of better effectiveness and specialization in instruction, superior cohesion of small units, solid preparation of commanders and officers, and more rationality in the use of time and resources.”
Castro further highlighted:
Importance of reactivating hydraulic and forest projects found during the evaluation of tasks fulfilled in terms of engineering projects for the theater of military operations;
FAR’s construction enterprises are now working on large tunnels under the country’s eastern mountains, as part of projects that will make it possible to deal with future droughts by water transfer, including from one province to another.
Increasing food production as permitted by conditions;
The meeting ratified “advances in the reestablishment, preservation, modernization and production of weapons and other combat means. In addition, high-technology simulators have been developed, also covering means of transport, including armored, air and naval, and for tank guns, infantry weapons and antiair defense.”
These achievements have been made through the decisive contributions of a large group of scientists, specialists and workers at FAR entities charged with this important task, in close coordination with the country’s other institutions, which have made their own important contribution.
A permanent concern for Raul Castro’s government is how will it sustain feeding the populace as aliments continue to diminish due to shortages and the costly purchases of increasing imports, which poses a security dilemma for the regime.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Office of Global Analysis published a report last year titled: “Cuba
Admiral Dennis Blair USN (Ret.), new Director of National Intelligence, testified today before the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence outlining the annual assessment of national security threats to the United States.
The following section of his written testimony includes Cuba:
Avoiding a social explosion is foremost on the minds of the Cuban nomenklatura. "El Maleconazo" which occurred on the streets of Havana's famous seawall in August, 1994 was the most significant demonstration of social unrest in the island.
A chorus of those sympathetic to the Cuban regime and/or part of the nomenklatura are voicing their opinion about the need to reform Cuba’s system or else social instability caused by a lack of change to the status quo will lead to political destabilization through violence.
A member of said chorus is Ignacio Ramonet (penned an autobiography of Fidel Castro and was editor-in-chief of Le Monde Diplomatique) who wrote a revealing article last week giving a purview of the current situation in Cuba.
Ramonet states: “Raul Castro and his team have dedicated themselves to three pressing problems: food, public transportation, and housing. Three domains where shortages, poverty, and dysfunctions favor permanent unrest of the population.”
Cuban police have detained 100 dissidents this week in Cuba to avoid their participation in marches commemorating the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights according to an announcement made by the Cuban Commission of Human Rights – Comisi
Cuban police patrol cars stand along Havana Malecon seafront. Image: Getty/AFP
Carta de Cuba alerts that the Cuban capital is constantly surveilled by patrolling soldiers and police, whom traverse municipalities to impose order reports the independent press during the last couple of weeks. In the municipalities of San Miguel del Padr
Cuban police motorcyclists patrol the streets of Havana. Image: AFP/Getty
La Jornada (Mexico) reports Cuba’s black market “could place in jeopardy the revolution’s very existence,” whereby the national police has hardened its vigilance against the underground economy which could become a high priority mission, according to an official communique released Sunday.
“There is a war without barracks against illegalities and crime,” the unsigned communique published in the Havana weeklyTribuna.
Reported were raids executed in the last two months in the capital including operations against 100 factories, 60 shops and 200 clandestine warehouses.
The campaign started in September in the aftermath of the hurricanes including a system of searching passengers in police checkpoints throughout roadways.
Hurricane Gustav and Hurricane Ike inflicted misery on millions of Cubans. But when the Castro dictatorship looks at the devastation, it sees opportunity.
The Saturno motor vessel of the Cuban Revolutionary Navy, is expected to arrive in Isla de la Juventud on Thursday loaded with materials for the reestablishment of the communications and energy systems in this area, devastated by hurricane Gustav.
The ship set sail on Tuesday from the Haiphong terminal of Havana’s port carrying four containers with power generators, communications equipment and liquid containers and 50 poles for the erection of electricity wires,according to statements by the ship
La Razon reports on the creation of a super-ministry charged with overseeing the production of food (a vital national security issue for Cuba):
While rumors of a next government crisis runs insistently throughout Havana, the name of Ulises Rosales del Toro is beginning to be heard with greater impetus among diplomats and journalists. Rosales del Toro is the current Minister of Sugar, a two star general, 66 years-old with a brilliant service record for the regime.
According to unofficial sources, it seems Rosales del Toro will play a vital role in the restructuring of the Cuban government once Raul Castro sends the plan to parliament (National Assembly) before the end of the year.
“I know what you know,” responded Vice-Minister of Sugar Juan Godefroy to a query made by a US news agency interested in the role of that ministry in the unification of four ministerial posts that are linked to the production of food in the country.
Expected unification
Even though there is speculation without official confirmation point to Rosales del Toro, former chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, as the center of the expected unification or reorganization of the Ministries of Agriculture, Sugar, Food and Fishery.
The restructuring of the departments linked to the production of food which is a national security issue in Cuba began with sharing by municipalities of “many decisions that have been up to now made centrally in the Ministry of Agriculture,” opined Cuban economists who asked to remain anonymous.
“Unification of decision making” in the sector will be reached through that path but they declined to advance the names of who will head the new structure.
Houston Chronicle reports on the Cubans’ apathetic feeling and prices spiraling upward even for a mango yet the Cuban government has a difference view:
Cubans face economic difficulties, but “there are no tanks on the street corners,” said Miguel Alvarez, chief adviser to Ricardo Alarcon, president of Cuba’s National Assembly. Cuba, Alvarez said, is a “stable country, a tranquil country.“
Army General Raul Castro delivered a speech in Santiago de Cuba yesterday commemorating the 55th anniversary of the start of the communist revolution. Castro warned the populace of more hard times ahead.
Relevant parts of the speech:
The majority of our nation has demonstrated sufficient familiarity and maturity to understand these truths, which turn out to be inescapable. On the other hand, other persons stubbornly try to close their eyes before the world’s problems. I repeat that the Revolution has done and will continue to do everything in its power to foster its development and reduce to a minimum the unavoidable consequences of the current international crisis for the population. However, we must inform our people in a timely manner of the difficulties so that they may be prepared to face them. We have to get used to not receiving just good news.
[...]
As great as our desires may be to resolve each problem, we cannot spend more than what we have, and in order take the greatest advantage, it is vital to save everything, primarily fuel.
[...]
As a poor country without easily exploitable large natural resources, which has to work hard to earn a living in a world where most of the people live in the direst poverty, the material objectives of our people cannot be too ambitious.
[...]
Aside from production, our defence will not be ignored regardless of the outcome of the next presidential elections in the United States. Defence preparedness is going well. In November 2007, we carried out the Moncada exercises in the western and central part of the island with good results. In the eastern territory, we carried them out in June because we decided to postpone them in order to not affect the recovery efforts in the aftermath of last year’s heavy rains. We continue the favourable development of Operation Caguairan which has translated into a significant increase of reserve preparedness, who complement active duty and militia troops. At the same time, we have continued developing the military theatre of operations, upgrading of armaments and other of the resources, and developing and training officers; more than 2,000 graduated this year, the highest rate in the last 10 years.
The conditions have been created to carry out the strategic exercise Bastion 2008 with highest quality and rigour in November.
Army General Raul Castro warned of tough economic times ahead for the island from spiraling international fuel and food prices in his July 11 speech before the National Assembly. Food was mentioned a total of 14 times in his speech.
One instance:
When speaking of oil there are other factors as well, such as agro-fuel production, financial speculation, and the devaluation of the dollar, to name just a few. These have caused a rise in price for almost every food product and the resources used in their production. Three examples: in July of 2007, the price of importing rice had risen to $435 per ton. Today it costs $1,100 per ton. It used to cost $435. A similar amount of wheat, one ton, cost $297 when we spoke in Camaguey last year. Now it costs more than $409. During that same address in Camaguey on 26 July I said that a ton of powdered milk at that time cost the astronomical sum of $5,200, whereas four years earlier it cost $2,100, less than half. Everything is more expensive. On top of everything, fertilizer prices are among those that are climbing fastest. One of the most important fertilizers rose from $303 per ton in July 2007 to $688 now. Another commonly used one, [word indistinct] cost $400 a year ago but now costs almost $700. It seems like the work of the devil.
Increased food prices have become a security concern for developing nations and in the case of Cuba, a possible destabilizing variable from a hungry populace who can ill afford to pay spiraling prices of foodstuffs. How will the Cuban regime address this factor, remains to be seen.
The historical record indicates that nonviolent campaigns have been more successful than armed campaigns in achieving ultimate goals in political struggles, even when used against similar opponents and in the face of repression. Nonviolent campaigns are more likely to win legitimacy, attract widespread domestic and international support, neutralize the opponent
According to Juventud Rebelde, Cuba continues to face a mass internal migration from the provinces to the capital of Havana.
City of Havana continues to be the primary point of attraction for a great majority of Cubans who decide to move. And as so it happens in the rest of the world, the grand metropolis offers wonders
Juan Tamayo of El Nuevo Herald has a piece on the 50th anniversary of the Battle at Escambray (the last armed internal combat against the Castro dictatorship.) Fifty years ago, Rivera was one of up to 4,000 Cubans battling Castro’s brand new government in a little-known, but nasty guerrilla war that raged in parts of [...]
The Cuban government has launched a campaign seeking ways to cut excess personnel in its state sector. José Ramón Machado Ventura, First Vice-President of the Council of State, visited several eastern provinces in the last week to assess efficiency in state entities by reducing personnel.
The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts for Cuba, “fiscal retrenchment will limit growth to only 2% in 2010. In 2011 policy relaxation will allow growth to pick up to 3.7%.” Key indicators 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real GDP growth (%) 1.4 2.0 3.7 4.2 4.4 4.2 Consumer price inflation (av; %) -0.5 0.7 5.4 [...]
The Cuban government 
Security is behind modification
30 August 2010 at 1827 in Armed Forces, Commentary, Government, International Relations, Military & Defense, Paramilitary, Population, Security, US, Violence by Armando F. Mastrapa 3d
Joaquín Roy, professor of Int’l Studies at the University of Miami, posits in an op-ed for El Pais that the Obama Administration’s primary goal of modifying the Bush Administration’s past policies toward Cuba is to create a more solid base guaranteeing U.S. security, thus avoiding the destabilization (internal social explosion and mass exodus) of Cuba.
He describes the Cuban armed forces as:
And on Cuban internationalism:
Roy sums up the reality of U.S. policy towards Cuba with “in Washington, stability translates into security.”
Read the rest, here.
Tags: bush administration, Cuba, destabilization, internal social explosion, Joaqúin Roy, mass exodus, Obama administration, U.S. security