Category — Raul Castro

Via Oxford Analytica:

Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque visits Mexico on Thursday, in an atmosphere of improving bilateral ties.  Close historical ties between the two countries, arising from a shared revolutionary tradition, and similar challenges from close proximity with the United States, had suffered under the administration of former Mexican President Vicente Fox.

Things have changed since. Veteran Cuban leader Fidel Castro has handed over the presidency to his brother, Raul, who is anxious to reduce the country’s dependence on Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and focus on other relational relationships.  While Brazil has been at the forefront of this, Mexico is also a strategically important regional power because of its size and proximity, both to the island and United States. Mexican President Felipe Calderon, who took over from Fox after narrowly winning elections in 2006, has pursued a much more low-key and pragmatic foreign policy than his predecessor. While ideologically and temperamentally very different to his Venezuelan and Cuban counterparts, he has sought to normalise relations with both.

The key current bilateral issue is likely to be immigration.  While Cubans do still seek to reach the Florida coasts in — often makeshift — boats, an increasingly popular alternative sees migrants travelling to the Mexican state of Veracruz, from where they make their way to the US border by land, availing themselves there of the ‘wet foot dry foot’ policy, which grants Cubans automatic residency.  This is much more difficult to control, and has led to significant numbers from elsewhere in Latin America pretending to be Cuban in a bid to secure entry to the United States.  Addressing the problem will require high levels of bilateral engagement and cooperation, and could be an issue on which the Cuban government could engage with the next US administration.

Indeed, another key factor on both sides will be preparing for dealings with US President George Bush’s successor.  While Senator Barack Obama appears more willing to engage with Havana than his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain, engagement is likely whoever wins. Progress will necessarily be slow and hesitant, however, because of domestic political constraints in both countries. Mexico could be a key player in such a process, as a mediator and go-between.

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Radio Netherlands examines Russian interest in restoring its military base in Cuba and the Cuban government’s lack of interest:

Cuba itself has already made it fairly clear that there’s no question of a renewed Russian military colonialism. The country is still sore at the fact that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought an end to the liberal flow of funds from Moscow. And the leadership in Havana hasn’t forgotten that ten years later, without any consultation, Russia ended to its last military presence in Cuba: the vast intelligence base in Torrens, better known as “Lourdes”, from which legend has it a pin could be heard falling anywhere in the southern United States, and all US communications could be tapped.

The present Cuban leader Raúl Castro would also seem to have little to gain from Russian sabre-rattling over Cuba, particularly as he now seems to be taking cautious steps towards improving relations with the United States.

Quite apart from all the overblown talk surrounding Cuba, it’s plain that the Russian army is using the extra billions in revenue from oil and gas sales to bring its military hardware up to scratch. New nuclear weapons and nuclear submarines have been developed, and an order has just been made for twelve new aircraft carriers (albeit of a modest size and without the usual nuclear propulsion), and there are feverish attempts to lift the armed forces out of the mess into which the once so mighty Red Army descended after the fall of the Soviet Union.

From the perspective of military strategy, there is no sign that Moscow has the least interest in Latin America, other than for occasional arms sales to countries like Venezuela. Russia’s geopolitical priorities now lie in Asia, where it is seeking a strategic partnership with China and India, and was co-initiator of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a potential future counterpart to NATO. In contrast to the vague events now surrounding Cuba, in 2003 there was a military exercise to really set the alarm bells ringing. For the first time since 1991, Russian strategic bombers appeared above the Indian Ocean. The scenario of the exercise was plain enough: how to take out an entire US naval unit using nuclear cruise missiles. There’s nothing vague about that.

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Oxford Analytica remarks about the state of post-Fidel:

Ever since long-standing Cuban leader Fidel Castro handed power to his brother, Raul, to undergo gastric surgery, expectations have been for change on the island -– even more so after Fidel announced his retirement in February, with his brother ratified as president.

Raul has indeed announced a series of (primarily economic) reforms since taking office, designed to address increasingly visible and vocal public demands for change:

• Legalising the sale of products such as mobile phones and computers
• Allowing Cubans to stay in tourist hotels (if they can afford it)
• Liberalising the agricultural sector, with land handed over to farmers, and the state selling them tools and inputs.

However, external challenges have limited the scope of reforms:

• High international food and energy prices have hit Cuba particularly hard, leaving the government unable to afford other promises — including a pledge to eliminate wage equality by rewarding higher productivity; and to end wholesale food subsidies through rationing.

• Indeed, Raul warned in a recent speech of the need for increased austerity — in energy consumption, for instance — to cope with the effects of global inflation.

Public demands

While reform efforts are constrained, public desire for change has not eased. Spaces are emerging for discontent to be voiced:

• Blogs such as the irreverent “Generacion Y”, are now maintained from the island, albeit hosted on foreign servers.

• A social democratic party has recently been formed, which claims to be leftist and, in contrast to many other dissident groups, opposes the long-standing US economic embargo on Cuba, and does not receive US funding.

• Even official sources seem more open to critical views than in the past, with the Communist Party newspaper starting to publish a (carefully filtered) “letter to the editors” section, in effect delineating the acceptable extent of criticism.

Still, the government believes for now that it can contain political dissent and manage rising public expectations. While its grip on power will remain tight for the foreseeable future, and periodic low-level harassment of some opponents will continue, it is likely increasingly to struggle to manage popular discontent.

Changing international alignments

More change is visible on the international stage, as the government re-thinks old alliances:

• Cuba remains extremely reliant on Venezuela and China, but Raul is seeking to be less dependent on alliances with other left-wing governments.

• Brazil, for instance, could become key to more balanced and diverse international relations — its foreign minister, Celso Amorim, recently stated it wishes to be Cuba’s main international partner.

• The EU recently officially lifted sanctions on Cuba (already suspended since 2005). While differences remain on how to handle relations with the Raul government, the Spanish have made unilateral attempts to encourage further liberalisation.

The Cuban government will continue to respond to such moves, though it will be careful not to seem eager in doing so. For instance, irrespective of who takes office in Washington next year, US-Cuban bilateral relations will improve -– but gradually, in recognition of domestic politics in each country, and accompanied by occasionally harsh rhetoric. Those hoping for change will have to be patient.

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From The Economist print edition

Raúl Castro preaches patience

HE TOOK over as Cuba’s acting president two years ago, and was officially confirmed in the job in February. But in some ways Raúl Castro must still govern in the shadow of his older, and ailing, brother, Fidel. If any Cubans had forgotten this, they were reminded as he took to the podium in Santiago, Cuba’s second city, on July 26th to deliver the annual speech that marks the anniversary of the official start of the country’s revolution. Raúl, a short man, was dwarfed by a vast image of Fidel, clenching his fist in salute.

In the past few months, Raúl has introduced a series of small but significant changes. He has dropped some of the petty restrictions that irritate Cubans. If they can afford it, they are now free to buy DVD players, stay in tourist hotels and use mobile phones. More significantly, private farmers can buy their own supplies and equipment, and cultivate more of the vast tracts of idle state-owned land. Even the egalitarian dream under which heart surgeons were paid barely twice as much as street cleaners is being ended, with the introduction of performance-related pay.

These steps signal that consumerism is no longer officially frowned upon, and that Raúl Castro recognises that private initiative is essential to reduce his country’s dependence on imports and eventually to allow Cubans’ derisory wages to rise. The mini-reforms have been popular, and Cubans expect more. Officials have hinted that the right to buy cars, to travel, and even to buy and sell property is being considered behind the scenes. There are signs, too, that they are discussing a bigger role for private enterprise beyond farming.

But Raúl had no such announcements to make in Santiago. Instead, his subdued audience of 10,000 were told in some detail of government investment in roads and in addressing the city’s appalling water shortage. Austerity, not market reform, was the message. “As much as we desire to solve every problem, we cannot spend more than what we have,” Mr Castro said. He cited rising oil prices (though the island receives more than half its oil from Venezuela at a concessional price). The government had already said that rising food prices would cost the country an extra $1 billion this year.

So has the reformist drive halted having barely started? There are hints of intensifying debate, if not infighting, within the regime. Mr Castro noted that public discussion on raising the retirement age should not be open-ended. “We do not aspire to unanimity, which is usually fictitious,” he said. That contrasts with Fidel’s oft-repeated insistence on “unity”.

Some foreign investors are betting that Cuba is heading on an increasingly capitalist route. A European fund which invests in Cuba found its share placing last March 70% oversubscribed. A London-based consortium has announced that it is going ahead with plans to build a €350m ($545m) country club and golf resort overlooking the Florida Straits, complete with luxury villas for sale to foreigners.

But change is likely to remain slow at least until the end of next year, when the Communist Party holds its long-overdue sixth congress. Mr Castro has said that the congress will set the country’s “economic and political directives”. Until then, Cubans will need yet more patience.

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Army General Raul Castro delivered a speech in Santiago de Cuba yesterday commemorating the 55th anniversary of the start of the communist revolution. Castro warned the populace of more hard times ahead.

Relevant parts of the speech:

The majority of our nation has demonstrated sufficient familiarity and maturity to understand these truths, which turn out to be inescapable. On the other hand, other persons stubbornly try to close their eyes before the world’s problems. I repeat that the Revolution has done and will continue to do everything in its power to foster its development and reduce to a minimum the unavoidable consequences of the current international crisis for the population. However, we must inform our people in a timely manner of the difficulties so that they may be prepared to face them. We have to get used to not receiving just good news.

[...]

As great as our desires may be to resolve each problem, we cannot spend more than what we have, and in order take the greatest advantage, it is vital to save everything, primarily fuel.

[...]

As a poor country without easily exploitable large natural resources, which has to work hard to earn a living in a world where most of the people live in the direst poverty, the material objectives of our people cannot be too ambitious.

[...]

Aside from production, our defence will not be ignored regardless of the outcome of the next presidential elections in the United States. Defence preparedness is going well. In November 2007, we carried out the Moncada exercises in the western and central part of the island with good results. In the eastern territory, we carried them out in June because we decided to postpone them in order to not affect the recovery efforts in the aftermath of last year’s heavy rains. We continue the favourable development of Operation Caguairan which has translated into a significant increase of reserve preparedness, who complement active duty and militia troops. At the same time, we have continued developing the military theatre of operations, upgrading of armaments and other of the resources, and developing and training officers; more than 2,000 graduated this year, the highest rate in the last 10 years.

The conditions have been created to carry out the strategic exercise Bastion 2008 with highest quality and rigour in November.

Full speech translated by BBC Monitoring.

Further coverage from: AFP, BBC video report, AP, Reuters, & New York Times.

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From The Economist print edition:

Having rescued Cuba with cheap oil, Venezuela is to be paid back in zebras

SOON after Fidel Castro seized power in Cuba in 1959, goes an old Cuban joke, the signs at the Havana zoo that read “Please do not feed the animals” were changed to “Please do not take the animals’ food”. When the Soviet Union crumbled and withdrew its aid to Cuba, triggering the so-called “special period” that began in the early 1990s, times became even harder and the joke changed. The new signs, so the story went, begged visitors not to eat the animals.

For those who lived through it, the special period was anything but funny. Domestic cats disappeared from the streets and reappeared on the dinner table. The zoo population thinned out. “The peacocks, the buffalo and even the rhea [a South American bird that resembles an ostrich] disappeared,” says a Havana resident. “The hyaenas became vegetarians, the zoo was depopulated and even the tigers had only sweet potatoes and a bit of cassava to eat.”

But while the old 26th Avenue Zoo in Havana was losing its animals, the revolutionary authorities somehow maintained a safari park outside the city. Captive breeding programmes for zebras and some primates survived. And now the comrades in Venezuela, whose president, Hugo Chávez, provides Cuba with a generous oil subsidy that put an end to the special period, are to benefit from it.

The Caricuao zoo in Caracas, Venezuela’s capital, is a shadow of its former self. Its last giraffe, Napoleón, died 15 years ago. Ruperta, the last elephant, has been alone for over two years. Gone are the zebras, kangaroos and ostriches. Its director, Carlos Audrines, attributes the decline more to a “crisis of management” than lack of cash, like much else in Venezuela. But thanks to high oil prices and revolutionary solidarity, plans are now afoot to refurbish the rundown facilities and restock the zoo.

Cuba is to supply 19 animals from species of which it now has a surplus. They include a giraffe, two lions, four zebras, a rhino and a pygmy hippo. In what Mr Audrines describes as a barter arrangement (in which the Cubans seem to get the rough end), Caracas will trade them for eight macaws, two tapirs, a puma and four capybaras. Further swaps are planned. Negotiations are also under way with zoos in Moscow and Quito.

The animals from Cuba can expect the diet to be better in their new home and the visitors to be slightly more free-range. But the Venezuelan animals may not be so pleased with the deal. The puma is being kept under a green awning during quarantine to prevent an attack of nerves, say the Caricuao zoo keepers. The mood of the notoriously outspoken Venezuelan macaws on being packed off to an island where freedom of speech is a luxury can only be guessed at.

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