Violence

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Stratfor analytical article on insurgent/terrorist groups using criminal activity to fund its operations.  A reference is made within the piece to the Cuban Intelligence Service (CuIS):

For the militant group, the addition of a state sponsor can provide an array of modern weaponry and a great deal of useful training. For example, the FIM-92 Stinger missiles that the United States gave to Afghan militants fighting Soviet forces greatly enhanced the militants’ ability to counter the Soviets’ use of air power. The training provided by the Soviet KGB and its allies, the Cuban DGI and the East German Stasi, revolutionized the use of improvised explosive devices in terrorist attacks. Members of the groups these intelligence services trained at camps in Libya, Lebanon and Yemen, such as the German Red Brigades, the Provincial Irish Republican Army (PIRA), the Japanese Red Army and various Palestinian militant groups (among others), all became quite adept at using explosives in terrorist attacks.

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Alberto Pérez Giménez comments in today’s ABC (one of Spain’s national newspapers) about Jorge Masetti’s history with Latin American terrorist groups trained in Havana.

And also, how Vilma Espín (Raúl Castro’s deceased wife) served as hostess at dinner parties with “Basque fighters” in attendance.

ETA, per Pérez Giménez, remains under the protection of the Cuban regime.

(Image: 2009 marked the 50th anniversary of ETA. Radio Netherlands Worldwide.)

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The Institute for Economics and Peace has released the results for its Global Peace Index—2010. The GPI gauges ongoing domestic and international conflict, safety and security in society and militarisation in 149 countries.

Cuba ranked 72 worldwide, scoring 1.964. Regionally, Cuba ranked 7 and continues to receive the lowest score for violent crime in Latin America.

Peace Indicators for Cuba

Twenty-three indicators make up the GPI. Countries are scored on these indicators on a range from 1 to 5 where 1 equals most peaceful.

Three highest indicators are:

  • Number of internal security officers and police 100,000 people (4);
  • Number of jailed population per 100,000 people (3.5);
  • Political instability (2.5);
  • Aggregate weighted number of heavy weapons per 100,000 people (2.5)

(Images: Institute for Economics and Peace, Global Peace Index—2010)

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U.S. federal law enforcement agencies (FBI and ICE) are hunting down al-Shabaab terrorists (an ally of al Qaeda) who illegally entered the U.S. from Kenya through Cuba, reports the New York Daily News.

al-Shabaab is an Islamic terrorist group that controls much of southern Somalia, excluding the capital, Mogadishu. It has waged an insurgency (using guerrilla warfare and terrorist tactics) against Somalia’s transitional government and its Ethiopian supporters since 2006.

About 300 Somalis were managed to be smuggled into the United States by an American, Anthony Joseph Tracy. He did this by making a deal with a Cuban diplomats in Kenya, who got the Somalis visas to visit Cuba, and then arranged for them to fly on to South America, where they were eventually smuggled across the Mexican border into the United States.

(This story was originally reported here in April, 2010.)

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Castro dies of natural causes under questionable circumstances. His brother Raul is still in control of the apparatus. An enormous funeral and wake is observed throughout the nation, but within days after the wake, Cubans begin to demonstrate openly against the post-Castro regime. Raul accelerates liberalizing policies and carefully consolidates preferential property rights for the Cuban Communist Party, including ownership of information systems and key foreign currency owners such as tourist hotels. This cynical abandonment of the revolution in favor of privileged survival is transparent to lower-ranking bureaucrats and outer-circle rivals. Violence breaks out between major institutions with historic grudges, and the competition is fueled as exile leaders and money are attracted to the fray. Leverage is soon applied to change migration, investment, banking and property ownership policies. Once this happens, the regime loses effective political control.

The above referenced quote is a scenario presented in a special issue of Military Review dedicated to Operations other than War published in January 1994.

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ETA

FARC

ELN

The Cuban government justified its links with Basque terrorist group (ETA) and Colombian terrorist groups (FARC and ELN); demanding that the United States “immediately exclude” the country from its “list of state sponsors of terrorism” and also condemning that its travelers are being submitted to strict security measures.

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A demonstrator, second from right, is grabbed by unidentified men during a march organized by dissidents to commemorate the Human Rights Day in Havana. 20091210 (AP Photo/Javier Galeano)

A demonstrator, second from right, is grabbed by unidentified men during a march organized by dissidents to commemorate the Human Rights Day in Havana. 20091210 (AP Photo)

Government supporters screaming insults and slogans broke up two tiny International Human Rights Day marches Thursday and chased away a British diplomat onlooker, pounding on his car as he drove away.

Hundreds of enraged Cubans confronted a march led by Yusnaimi Jorge, wife of Darcy Ferrer, a black physician and veteran dissident who had headed demonstrations every Dec. 10 but has been behind bars since this summer for buying black market cement.

“This street is Fidel’s,” the crowd yelled as a group of men in plainclothes, believed to be state security agents, ringed the demonstrators, eventually placing them in unmarked vehicles.

The pro-government crowd also pursued observer Chris Stimpson, second secretary of the British Embassy, shouting at him until he fled to his car, then ringing the vehicle and banging on it. He returned to his office without further incident.

(via AP)

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Division General Leonardo Andollo Valdés (Deputy Chief, General Staff) announced for the first time on Cuban state television that the Cuban military prepares for internal warfare against the people.

The War of All the People (Guerra de todo el pueblo) has been the fundamental underpinning of the Cuban armed forces’ military doctrine where the social masses are responsible for the national defense of the country against potential U.S. agression.

However, with Bastion 2009, that fundamental is evolving for the first time to include for the preparation of the armed forces’ internal war against the people.

La Jornada reports Division General Leonardo Andollo Valdés’ (Deputy Chief, General Staff) comments on the Mesa Redonda (Round Table) state television program surrounding the FAR and MININT’s military exercises beginning today.

Div. Gen. Andollo stated that the military maneuvers “begin in a situation of peacetime” and are in preparation for the increase of enemy subversive activity aimed at causing social disorder and ungovernability in Cuba.”

Was this a slip of the tongue for Andollo or was he sanctioned by the military hierarchy to make it abundantly clear for internal/external consumption the government’s plan to crush, without hesitation, social instability affecting internal security?

The economic implosion (e.g. energy crisis, falling exports, limited capital inflow, eliminating food rationing booklet) the Cuban government faces caused by a stagnate command economy with meager traces of capitalism is propelling an inevitable social upheaval that the military and security forces will confront.

Bastion 2009 exercises are further evidence of such a fundamental change to the military’s mission to now quash social instability which has been publicly announced by a high-ranking general of the Cuban military’s high command.

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Cuban military's doctrine is evolving to quell social upheaval on the island caused by economic crisis. Image: European Press Photo Agency

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Cuba began today at dawn their three-day military exercises in efforts to dissuade an aggression from the United States and prepare for a rapid response in the event of an explosive social conflict on the island.

Granma, the Cuban Communist Party daily, announced in its front page that this is most important military exercise in the last five years even with the austerity caused by an economic crisis but conducted with efficiency.

Further coverage from AFP; EFE; Prensa Latina; BBC Mundo; La Jornada

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Human Rights Watch released today its 123-page report titled, “New Castro, Same Cuba: Political Prisoners in the Post-Fidel Era,” on the state of political prisoners and repression under Raul Castro’s government.

The report “shows how the Raúl Castro government has relied in particular on the Criminal Code offense of “dangerousness,” which allows authorities to imprison individuals before they have committed any crime, on the suspicion that they are likely to commit an offense in the future. This “dangerousness” provision is overtly political, defining as “dangerous” any behavior that contradicts Cuba’s socialist norms.”

Here are segments of the executive summary:

In July 2006, Fidel Castro handed control of the Cuban government over to his brother Raúl Castro. As the new head of state, Raúl Castro inherited a system of abusive laws and institutions, as well as responsibility for hundreds of political prisoners arrested during his brother’s rule. Rather than dismantle this repressive machinery, Raúl Castro has kept it firmly in place and fully active. Scores of political prisoners arrested under Fidel Castro continue to languish in Cuba’s prisons. And Raúl Castro’s government has used draconian laws and sham trials to incarcerate scores more who have dared to exercise their fundamental freedoms.

Raúl Castro’s government has relied in particular on a provision of the Cuban Criminal Code that allows the state to imprison individuals before they have committed a crime, on the suspicion that they might commit an offense in the future. This “dangerousness” provision is overtly political, defining as “dangerous” any behavior that contradicts socialist norms. The most Orwellian of Cuba’s laws, it captures the essence of the Cuban government’s repressive mindset, which views anyone who acts out of step with the government as a potential threat and thus worthy of punishment.

While this report documents a systematic pattern of repression, it does not intend to suggest that there are no outlets for dissent whatsoever in Cuba. The last three years have, for example, witnessed the emergence of an independent Cuban blogosphere, critical lyrics by musicians, and most recently a series of government-organized public meetings to reflect on Cuban socialism.

The Cuban government has for years refused to recognize the legitimacy of independent human rights monitoring and has adamantly refused to allow international monitors, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross and international nongovernmental organizations like Human Rights Watch, to visit the island and investigate human rights conditions. In researching this report, Human Rights Watch made repeated written requests to the Raúl Castro government for meetings with authorities and formal authorization to conduct a fact-finding mission to the island. As in the past, the Cuban government did not respond to any of our requests.

As a result, Human Rights Watch decided to conduct a fact-finding mission to Cuba without official permission in June and July 2009. During this trip, Human Rights Watch researchers conducted extensive interviews in seven of the island’s fourteen provinces. We also conducted numerous interviews via telephone from New York City. In total, we carried out more than 60 in-depth interviews with human rights defenders, journalists, former political prisoners, family members of current political prisoners, members of the clergy, trade unionists, and other Cuban citizens.

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Charlie Chaplin as "The Great Dictator"

Charlie Chaplin as "The Great Dictator"

Jon Basil Utley, a former South American correspondent for Knight Ridder, demarcates Third World dictatorships in his article published in Reason magazine.

He briefly discusses the time he lived in Cuba (1958) during the Batista period, noting: “Batista never used the type of brutality Fidel Castro later imposed, but his government was corrupt, and was dependent on cronyism and upon its police, who were in turn corrupted by power.”

Utley best illustrates with the following observation:

Understanding how such dictatorships actually function would help Washington to avoid more foreign policy disasters. If Americans better understood the weaknesses of most foreign tyrannies, we’d be less inclined to see them as great threats. Also, we would have to face the reality that administering them effectively would mean establishing a permanent corps of occupation forces on the British or Roman model. Even then modern communications and weaponry might make our rule fail. Tribal societies cannot be easily converted into democracies.


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Mara Salvatrucha gang members arrested by Honduran special police in Tegucigalpa. Photo: Reuters

Mara Salvatrucha gang members arrested by Honduran special police. (Photo: Reuters)

Several challenges will be posed to a transitional government once Castroism fades from existence (elements will certainly remain) and a semblance of democracy emerges. Organized crime will be one of them, particularly in the streets of Havana and other cities throughout the island, perpetrated by gangs.

The lessons learned (from strategy and tactics to combat) of the current gang and organized crime phenomena evolving in Central America and Mexico proves invaluable to a future transitional government in how to confront these internal security issues.

Dr. Max Manwaring (Professor of Military Strategy at the U.S. Army War College) has written an article titled: “Sovereignty Under Seige: Gangs and Other Criminal Organizations in Central America and Mexico” published in the Spanish edition of Air and Space Power Journal addressing the current security challenges posed by gangs and organized crime in the Americas.

He also wrote at the end of 2007: “A Contemporary Challenge to State Sovereignty: Gangs and Other Illicit Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs) in Central America, El Salvador, Mexico, Jamaica, and Brazil published by the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College that is worth a read.

Manwaring points out in his excellent article, Sovereignty Under Seige:

Another kind of war within the context of a

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Mexico’s Informador reports on the increased expression of violence in the island. Even though violence is minor in Cuba compared to other Latin American countries, the island is not exempt from that type of expression, which has increased recently and acknowledged by state media, asserts the daily.

The greater question for Raul Castro’s government lies when social violence spirals out of control and becomes political in nature resulting in a destabilizing variable.

[H/T: La Nueva Cuba]

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