Aftermath of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike. (Photo: AP)

Via The Economist:

“NEVER in the history of Cuba have we had a case like this,” President Raúl Castro lamented after two powerful hurricanes, barely a week apart, struck the island, severely damaging crops and leaving some 200,000 homeless. Miraculously, Havana, the capital, was left virtually unscathed, as were the main tourist resorts, the oil industry and nickel mining. But with estimated losses of $5 billion, one of the world’s last communist regimes is facing a daunting task.

The enormous damage sustained to the island’s food supplies, housing and electricity grid raises big questions about Cuba’s ability to get by without massive international aid. Two of the island’s most valuable export crops, citrus and tobacco, suffered big losses. Luckily, the tobacco harvest was already in, but some 3,000 curing sheds where the leaves are stored were damaged. Almost half the sugarcane fields were flattened. The coffee harvest in the east has also been badly affected.

The government has admitted that it cannot cope alone. “It is impossible to solve the magnitude of the catastrophe with the resources available,” said Carlos Lezcano, director of the National Institute of State Reserves. “The reserves are being tested. We shall have to prioritise.”

Hurricanes Gustav and Ike could increase pressure on Raúl Castro to accelerate reforms to loosen the island’s centrally-controlled economy, much as his brother, Fidel, was forced to do in the early 1990s after the collapse of Cuba’s subsidised trade with the Soviet Union. Back then, reforms briefly opened the economy up to private enterprise, but Fidel Castro slammed the door shut again once the economy had recovered. [Read more →]

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Via Deutsche Welle:

The Cuban government under new leader Raul Castro has reportedly accepted the resumption of formal political dialogue with the EU after it lifted diplomatic sanctions against the island two months ago.

The EU representative in Havana, Javier Nino this week signaled interest in taking up formal talks with Europe in what could be a first step towards normalization of strained relations between the 27-member bloc and Cuba.

In a letter handed over earlier this month at the embassy of France, current holder of the EU’s rotating presidency, Nino said the communist regime was interested in restarting dialogue with the EU

“The Cuban government agrees to begin dialogue. (…) The EU proposal is an unconditional dialogue, mutual benefit, mutual respect on a number of issues such as rights and environmental issues,” Nino told news agency AFP on Tuesday, Sept 16.

“At this moment the two sides are negotiating over when (plans for) the dialogue can be firmed up, but ideally it will be relatively soon,” he said, adding that no date or venue had been set.

EU lifted sanctions against Cuba

Dialogue between Cuba and Europe broke off when the EU imposed diplomatic sanctions against the Caribbean island in 2003, angering Havana, after the Cuban government arrested 75 dissidents.

The sanctions were suspended in 2005, but not formally lifted until July 19.

The EU has said the sanctions will be reviewed annually with an eye on the human rights situation in Cuba. The elimination of sanctions was accompanied by an invitation for the communist-run government to join in a “global political dialogue.”

News of a thaw in relations between EU and Cuba came after the island was battered by Hurricane Gustav and just before Hurricane Ike, which caused an estimated $5 billion in damages.

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The New York Sun has an editorial on Freedom House’s study on change in Cuba published this week.

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Cuba cannot meet its foreign debt obligations coupled with hurricane damages reaching $5 billion, there is now talk of a Cuban space center being developed with Russian help, where are the priorities of the Cuban government to its populace?

Moscow is ready to help Cuba develop its own space center, Russia’s space agency chief said on Wednesday after talks in Caracas with Venezuelan and Cuban officials, Itar-Tass news agency reported.

Russia has stepped up efforts to develop closer links with both countries, which are ideological enemies of Washington, including sending Russian strategic bombers on a mission to Venezuela this month.

“We have held preliminary discussions about the possibility of creating a space center in Cuba with our help,” the chief of Russia’s Federal Space Agency Anatoly Perminov was quoted as saying by Itar-Tass in Caracas.

“With our Cuban colleagues, we discussed the possibilities of joint use of space equipment … and the joint use of space communications systems,” Perminov was quoted as saying.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin visited Cuba this week and together with representatives from several Russian ministries and large Russian companies looked at ways to help Cuba recover from hurricanes Gustav and Ike.

Renewed Russian links to the Caribbean island will stir memories in Washington of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis when the United States and Soviet Union almost went to war over Soviet missile bases on Cuba, which is 90 miles from U.S. shores.

Russian officials have said they want to renew Cuban ties that were neglected after the Soviet Union’s collapse.

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According to a brief note posted by the Defense Ministry in Cuban state media, Army General Raul Castro has decided to postpone Bastion 2008 Strategic Military Exercises until 2009 as a result of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike.  The exercises were to be held in November.

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Stratfor issues weekly guidelines to its analysts and this week focuses on Latin America with a theory of normalized relations between Cuba and United States:

Cuba remains the mystery. Havana is oddly quiet. Are there discussions going on with the United States? There should be, as far as the United States is concerned, but with an election coming, such talks are hard to set up. The Cubans don’t seem to want to play the Nicaraguan game. One scenario is that after the election, the Bush administration could move to normalize relations with Cuba and take the heat. The administration’s ratings will not matter and cannot go any lower. There is no evidence this will happen; it is just a theory.

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