Brazil

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  • The United States is creating conditions to change its foreign policy toward Cuba. [La Jornada]
  • A newly published book delves into the possibility that Fidel Castro ordered the murder of Chile’s Salvador Allende at the hands of a Cuban diplomat/agent whom Allende’s daughter married. [El Ciudadano]
  • The Spanish government has gotten into a diplomatic imbroglio because of its conciliatory posture toward the Cuban regime. [ABC]
  • Brazil and Cuba sign bilateral agreement on agriculture, meteorology and geology. [Prensa Latina]
  • Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright at the Aspen Institute on whether the Obama administration should move toward normalizing relations with Cuba.  [Aspen Daily News Online]

(Image: Diplomacy board game from Avalon Hill.)

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From the Economist Intelligence Unit:

No democratisation

If the prisoners — who include journalists, community organisers and opposition figures — are indeed set free, this would be a major concession on the part of the Castro government. It appears to be designed for external consumption, however. It could lead to improvements in Cuba’s foreign relations, particularly with Spain and other EU nations. EU foreign ministers will take up the issue of whether to uphold their “common position” on Cuba at their next summit in September. That position requires that the EU conduct an annual assessment of the human-rights situation in Cuba. Spain has been lobbying for some time for that requirement to be dropped.

However, the prisoner releases probably do not signal coming democratisation or any moves to provide Cubans with greater political rights. Moreover, there has been no fundamental shift in the tolerance of opposition. While discussions with Church representatives were under way in early June, the authorities rounded up and briefly detained 37 members of two dissident groups, Agenda para la Transición (Agenda for the Transition) and Unidad Liberal de la República de Cuba (the Cuban Republic’s Liberal Unity). Ostensibly this was to prevent two meetings due to take place in the house of a prominent dissident, Héctor Palacios, although the meetings proceeded any way.

Further, the Cuban Commission on Human Rights claims there are more than 100 additional political prisoners in Cuban jails.

[...]

The administration of President Barack Obama has taken modest steps towards improving relations with Cuba, such as eliminating Bush-era restrictions on travel to the island by Cuban-Americans and on their remittance of funds to their relatives. However, aware that the Cuba problem cannot be solved easily or quickly, the Obama government has decided to make no additional moves on Cuba policy in the approach to the US mid-term elections in November. Nonetheless, a campaign in the US legislature to weaken economic sanctions has continued. Two bills are advancing through Congress, one to facilitate US food sales to Cuba (by eliminating the need for Cuba to pay in cash in advance) and the other to remove restrictions on travel for US citizens. Although improvement on the human-rights front would help these bills’ prospects, final passage is highly uncertain.

[...]

In the absence of normalisation of political and commercial ties with Washington, Cuba’s relations with Venezuela will remain an important source of support for the economy. These are based on favourable terms of trade that link Cuba’s oil imports to the supply of healthcare and education professionals to Venezuela. If Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, were to be forced out of office, there would be a risk that current arrangements might be scaled back.

Partly reflecting this uncertainty, the Cuban authorities will continue to broaden international economic ties with other friendly countries, notably China, Brazil and Russia, which are becoming ever-more important trade partners. Restoring good relations with the EU would also help to mitigate the growing reliance on, and risks associated with, Havana’s links to Venezuela.

 

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Image: The Economist (13 AUG 09)

Image: The Economist (13 AUG 09)

The RAND Corporation examines China’s role as a global actor in the int’l system in its latest monograph titled: “China’s International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification.”

RAND describes Chinese global activism as “continually changing and has so many dimensions that it immediately raises questions about its current and future intentions and the implications for global stability and prosperity.”

Moreover, the study “examines how China views its security environment, how it defines its international objectives, how it is pursuing these objectives, and the consequences for U.S. economic and security interests.”

Chinese expanded strategic interests (including business interests) in Latin America and Cuba is accelerating at a fast pace.

As this study points out:

China is building political relationships to diversify its access to energy and other natural resources, with a focus on Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. Energy security encompasses diversifying both suppliers and supply routes.

China’s expanding involvement in Latin America is primarily (but not exclusively) driven by economic considerations: gaining access to markets, investments, and resources. The growth in China’s merchandise trade and investment in the region offers strong evidence of Chi- na’s economic motives. Trade between China and Latin America and the Caribbean has rapidly increased over the last several years, and as a result, this region has become more important to China. From 1999 to 2006, total merchandise trade increased from $8.2 billion to close to $70 billion, an almost tenfold increase. In 2006, Latin America and the Caribbean accounted for 4 percent of China’s total world trade, increasing its share by 1.7 percent since 1999.

China’s investments in Latin America are growing as well. China currently has projects in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, the Domini- can Republic, Guyana, and Venezuela, among other nations. China’s investments in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Venezuela are mainly focused on facilitating access to such natural resources as iron ore, copper, and oil (in the case of Venezuela); as such, its investments have been in the mining, transportation, manufacturing, and petroleum sectors.

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Pedro Nunez Mosquera. Image: AFP

Cuba's new ambassador to the UN. Image: AFP

Pedro Núñez Mosquera (58), Cuba’s current ambassador to Brazil, has been appointed by the Council of State to be the government’s ambassador to the United Nations, reports AFP.

Núñez is an attorney and began his diplomatic career in 1975; holding diverse posts including ambassador to Zimbabwe (1994) and director of Multilateral Affairs for the Ministry of Foreign Relations.

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USS TARAWA at SEA (Aug. 14, 2008) A 32-ship armada led by the ?amphibious assault ship USS Tarawa (LHA 1), manuever off the Panamanian ?Coast as part of the multi-national training exercise Fuerzas Aliadas ?PANAMAX 2008. Image: U.S. Navy

USS TARAWA at SEA (Aug. 14, 2008) A 32-ship armada led by the amphibious assault ship USS Tarawa (LHA 1), manuever off the Panamanian Coast as part of the multi-national training exercise Fuerzas Aliadas PANAMAX 2008. Image: U.S. Navy

The Joint Forces Quarterly 2nd Quarter 2009 issue is now available and focuses on a strategic global outlook thematic. The journal is published by the National Defense University Press for the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and is the Chairman’s flagship joint military and security studies journal.

One of the articles in this issue titled, “Time to Improve U.S. Defense Structure for the Western Hemisphere,” is written by Dr. Craig A. Deare, Professor of National Security Affairs at the National Defense University, which addresses “U.S. defense policy toward the region as it seeks to explain the primary structural shortcomings associated with both the formulation and execution of policy.”

The article gives a snapshot of concerns for the Department of Defense (DoD) such as transnational threats including terrorism, insurgency and drug trafficking in the hemisphere.

A series of priority countries, e.q. Bolivia, Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela, Brazil are mentioned in the article including Cuba.

Dr. Deare summarizes Cuba as:

“The question of what happens when the Castro brothers disappear from the scene remains open. This land, the size of Pennsylvania and with 11 million people, is at what the National Security Strategy would describe as a

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U.S. Joint Forces Command (USFCOM) released its Joint Operating Environment 2008 today outlining a strategic framework that forecasts possible threats and opportunities that will challenge the future US joint force.

USJFCOM is one of US Department of Defense’s nine combatant commands and has several key roles in transforming the U.S. military

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Aftermath of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike. (Photo: AP)

Aftermath of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike. (Photo: AP)

Via The Economist:

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The Eighth Defense Ministerial of the Americas: End of the Line?
by Ray Walser
Heritage Foundation

The Canadian government will host the Eighth Defense Ministerial of the Americas (DMA) September 2

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Cuba, Brazil and Venezuela are among the nations whom have purchased arms and technology from Spain, per EFE.

Spain’s Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Commerce posted a report (doc) outlining the export and sale of armaments abroad.

Exportation to EU countries totaled

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Charles Tannock, a British Conservative foreign affairs spokesman in the European Parliament, has written the following article published in the Tiapei Times about a new troika comprised of the presidents from Brazil, Colombia and Mexico and their quest for regional stability.

The rescue of Ingrid Betancourt and 14 other hostages who had been held for years by Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrillas marks more than a turning point in Colombia

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Reuters/Brazil Online (via O Globo Online) reports Ra

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From The Economist print edition

Outsiders bet that bigger changes are on their way

THE diplomatic sanctions imposed by the European Union after Cuba jailed 75 dissidents in 2003 were hardly painful. They mainly consisted of restricting political contacts and inviting dissidents to embassy functions, prompting a boycott by Cuban officials that became known as the

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Global Power Barometer‘s prognosis for Latin America in the next 3 to 36 months:

Latin America and the Rise of the Anti-American Left

In 1823, US President James Monroe issued the Monroe Doctrine, naming all of the Western Hemisphere, and particularly Latin America under the United States’ sphere of influence. Nearly 200 years later, the Monroe Doctrine looks like it could crumble

In 2005-2006, Latin American politics have been veering to the left with the electoral victories of Evo Morales in Bolivia, Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, and Rafael Correa in Ecuador (and a near victory by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico). These new leftist leaders add to current leftist regimes in Argentina, Brazil and Cuba. Perhaps the most outspoken of the leftist leaders is US opponent Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, who was just reelected by a 23% margin. These nations will pose a growing challenge to US interests in Latin America, as they seek to align themselves elsewhere. Already, Chavez has been making loud and brash statements on the world stage, pledging allegiance to Iran, denouncing President Bush and the United States at the United Nations, and signing trade pacts with China. Mercosur, the regional trade agreement instituted to promote free trade throughout South America (similar to NAFTA), is gaining supporters and seeks to give Latin America the same economic clout that the US and EU have. Furthermore, many Latin American nations are members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which seeks to provide viable alternatives to American and European hegemony. As Chinese investments in Venezuelan oil, in the reconstruction of the Panama Canal, and in mines grows in the region, watch for more independent action and less concord with the United States.

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O Estado De S.Paulo reports Brazil’s President Lula da Silva will offer Cuba $1 billion dollars in credits to finance the purchase of aliments, housing construction, and exploration of nickel as well as other projects, affirm Brazilian diplomats.

[Photo: Reuters -- Cuban interim-President Raul Castro and Brazilian President Lula da Silva review FAR Honor Guards.]

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Brazil plans to offer $500 million in financing to Cuba. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be in Havana today, reports Valor Economico. Lula is expected to announce agreements allowing Petroleo Brasileiro SA to explore oil in areas in the Gulf of Mexico that are controlled by Cuba, where Petrobras will build a lubricant factory.

Commentary on a new No. 2 in Cuba.

Carlos Lage, who has gained importance as a political actor in Cuba’s hierachy, evaluates housing construction in Villa Clara.

Cuban Government further lowers housing construction goals.

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