Open Democracy has published an article written by Professor Antoni Kapcia, head of the Centre for Research on Cuba, University of Nottingham whereby he asks: “Where is Raúl Castro taking Cuba after his brother Fidel’s retirement, and how will the Cuban “system” as well its people respond?”

Hence, whoever was president, a period of “stabilisation” beckoned; Raúl’s post-July 2006 leadership simply affected its form and pace. As a result, even before February 2008 the party was being strengthened in personnel and structure (its postponed congress is now scheduled for late 2009); there was a renewed emphasis on a culture of discipline (in the party, in commitment, in labour practices, and in the fight against crime and corruption); and reforms were emerging.

These reforms, as could be expected, are not “liberalising” Cuba towards widespread privatisation or capitalism, but are at the economic margins (access to goods, flexibility in housing, higher salaries and pensions, access to comforts) - though they do include include deeper reforms to food production, and thus to agricultural tenure and market mechanisms.

Raúl Castro is well aware that a post-Fidel government relies on the delivery of goods and a rapid visible improvement of grassroots economic wellbeing; there is still no conclusive evidence of a groundswell of popular demand for political change (too many factors militate against that), but if dissatisfaction continues with economic performance at the base (where it matters to most Cubans) it could turn against the government.

Reform is thus urgent, with Raúl referring (for example) to food production as a matter of “national security”. If economic changes meet consumer demands, and if the consultations which began in September 2007 continue in the approach to the 2009 congress, then the system may show itself to have plenty of life left in it. The remaining months of 2009 will be decisive, and fascinating to watch, for the future of the familiar and singular Cuban “system”.

Full article can be found here.

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