ISN Security Watch has an article addressing Cuba’s international relations leverage and foreign investment:

When Russian daily Izvestia reported on 21 July that Russian Tu-160 and Tu-95MS bombers had landed in Cuba, it set off a sprint in Washington as analysts and military leaders struggled to understand the situation.

At first, it appeared that Moscow had made a very serious gesture. Russia’s perceived geopolitical maneuver in Cuba, many thought, was in response to the US’ plans for an anti-missile shield defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

By 24 July, after three days of media hype and speculation over Russia’s true intentions, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Ilshat Baichurin, dismissed any intention for a strategic deployment in Cuba.

Two events quickly followed up this announcement. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin arrived in Cuba on 30 July for extended talks with Raul and Fidel Castro. A former KGB operative and known confidant of now-Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Sechin was an active operative during the Cold War and enjoyed a deep relationship with the Castros.

Putin then followed up Sechin’s visit with a 5 August announcement that Russia ought to “restore [its] position in Cuba and other countries.”

Observers agree a military presence in Cuba is not in Moscow’s best interests; rather, closer economic ties would behoove both nations. Sechin’s recent visit underlines the latter observation and coaxes Washington into a more open posture toward Cuba, an island nation the next US presidential administration would likely prefer not to lose again to the Russians. [Read more →]

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via Bloomberg:

Russia may send military aircraft back to bases in Cuba in response to U.S. plans to deploy elements of a missile defense system in Europe, Izvestiya reported, citing an unidentified “highly placed source.”

Both the supersonic Tu-160, a nuclear bomber known as “White Swan,” and the strategic bomber Tu-95, known to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as the “Bear,” are capable of flying as far as Cuba, the paper said.

“There are such discussions, but they’re only discussions,” the paper cited a “highly placed” source on the staff of Russia’s long-distance strategic aviation command as saying. “I’m not going to say that there’s nothing behind” the talks.

Russian military-transport aircraft regularly fly to Cuba, the paper said, carrying out orders for private companies.

The European antiballistic-missile shield system consists of a radar system in Czech republic (agreement signed July 8th) and missile-interceptor bases in Poland.

In addition, the Izvestiya article further adds:

• A senior source in the strategic long-distance aviation headquarters said such talk is only talk;
• Russia is currently negotiating with Cuba to supply the island with Russian-made aircraft (2 Il-96 aircraft and 4 TU-204: 2 passenger and cargo 2);
• Infrastructure of the Port of Mariel is quite old, but still able to take ships.
• In the province of Pinar del Rio, where former Soviet troops were deployed — the military can be re-deployed there.
• Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, former Chief of Defense for International Cooperation and President of the Academy on Geopolitical Affairs stated: “I wouldn’t say Russian aircraft need Cuba as a permanent home. I know that strategic aviation airplanes were intermediate, landing at airfields in Cape Verde. For such a goal, Cuba can be used again, not as a permanent home - there’s no need for it - but as airfields and air refueling.”
• Ivashov further went on to say that Cuba would not object to expanding Lourdes base for radio intelligence or something else.

Click here to read the Izvestiya article.

[Photo of Tu-160 and Tu-95: Izvestiya]

Update 13:43 EDT: Russian Defence Ministry officials on Monday poured cold water on a newspaper report that suggested Moscow could use Cuba as a refuelling base for nuclear-capable bombers, Reuters reports.

Update July 22, 16:12 EDT: via Reuters: Russia would cross “a red line for the United States of America” if it were to base nuclear capable bombers in Cuba, a top US air force officer warned on Tuesday. “If they did I think we should stand strong and indicate that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line for the United States of America,” said General Norton Schwartz, nominated to be the air force’s chief of staff.

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The editor of Foreign Policy, Moisés Naím, discusses factionalism, scenarios and the possibility of Cuba turning into Albania:

Raúl’s invisibility in Fidel’s blog is a manifestation of the secretive power struggle to define Cuba’s future. Inevitably, several factions are jockeying for dominance in the post-Fidel era. The two main ones are “the Chinese” and “the purists”. The first favours a Chinese-inspired model with an economy open to foreign trade and investment, tightly controlled politics and the military playing a large role running state-owned businesses.

The purists instead maintain that Cuba is now in a position to attain Fidel Castro’s socialist dream: a centralised economy with political power firmly concentrated in the State and the party. They argue that Hugo Chávez’s oil-fuelled generosity and ideological commitment makes this approach economically viable.

The Chinese faction is led by Raúl Castro, a pragmatic military man more interested in logistics than ideology. The leader of the purists is the Foreign Minister, Felipe Pérez Roque, Fidel Castro’s former aide. Pérez Roque also counts on Hugo Chávez. After all, the 110,000 barrels of oil that Chávez ships to Cuba every day must count for something in terms of political influence in an otherwise bankrupt economy.

It is impossible to predict the path that Cuba will follow. The most likely scenario is a messy hybrid that continues with much of the current policies and politics but where different approaches are periodically tested, embraced or discarded. But in addition, interesting insights about Cuba’s likely evolution can also be gleaned by looking at the experience of other nations making the transition to a post-communist model.

One sobering lesson is that, in the transition to a democratic market economy, protracted failure is more common than rapid success. More nations are stuck in a disappointing transition than those, such as the Czech Republic, that have progressed quite fast after communism. Another lesson is that the more internationally isolated, centralised, and personalised a former communist regime is, the more traumatic and unsuccessful its transition will be. Ceausescu’s Romania is having a more troubled transition than Estonia, for example.

Thirdly, dismantling a communist state is far easier and faster than building a functional replacement for it. Think Yugoslavia. Fourthly, as Russia shows, the brutal, criminal ways of a powerful communist party with a tight grip on public institutions are usually supplanted by the brutal, criminal ways of powerful private business conglomerates with a tight grip on public institutions. Finally, introducing a market economy without a strong and effective State capable of regulating it gives resourceful entrepreneurs more incentive to emulate Al Capone than Bill Gates. Think Bulgaria.

It is therefore safe to assume that if the post-Castro regime suddenly implodes, Cuba will end up looking more like Albania than the Bahamas. Instead of a massive flow of foreign investment into Cuba, America will get a massive inflow of refugees escaping a chaotic nation that no longer can or will stop them from fleeing abroad. Domestic politics will be unstable and nasty, with the Cuban exile community from America adding to their complexity.

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