Economy
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The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based independent think tank engaged in defense and security research, asks in its analysis of Cuba, how much of a threat does the Communist regime really pose to the world’s only superpower:
Raúl’s position as head of the Revolutionary Armed Forces (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias – FAR), who were greatly bolstered by the controlled economic reforms initiated in 1993, suggested that the new president would be in favour of expanding such open-market conditions to benefit the rest of the country. In reality, however, Raúl’s loyalty may lie less with the introduction of capitalism and more with the military itself. He was in favour of the 1993 reforms because they benefitted the army, not because he saw them as an intrinsically positive development.
This allegiance to the armed forces is not unexpected, but may well be giving the US some cause for alarm. The Cuban military currently manages around 60 percent of the economy, making it the strongest institution in the country. With its former head now in charge, the chances of a military state arising appear to be rather high. Indeed, the military exercises of 2004, shortly after Fidel’s public collapse, were the largest executed in nearly twenty years. It is reasonable to suppose that this was intended as a ‘show of strength’, not just for Cuba, but for Raúl himself (knowing, as he would, that he was the obvious candidate for power after his brother) and an indication of the route down which Cuba will be heading.
Read the rest of the article here.
(Image: Cuban military leadership. By La Nueva Cuba.)
Tags: Cuba, Cuban military, Economy, FAR, Fidel Castro, Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias, Iran, Military, military state, Revolutionary Armed Forces, Royal United Services Institute
Cuba’s government has allowed Granma (Cuban Communist Party’s newspaper) to publish letters to the editor (here and here) critical of an economy devastated by decades of corruption and centralized power.
(Image: Granma, Carta a la dirección, 7 May 2010.)
Tags: Cuban Communist Party, Cuban Government, cubans, Economy, open criticism
Cubans are bracing for hard times in 2010 as President Raul Castro slashes imports and cuts government spending to get Cuba out of crisis — and they are growing impatient with the slow pace of economic reform.
Hurricanes, the global recession, U.S. sanctions and the inability of the communist-run island’s command economy to maneuver have put an end to recovery from the 1990s crisis that followed the Soviet Union’s demise.
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Tags: Cuba, Economy, Raul Castro
The government of Army General Raul Castro suffers from an asphyxiating lack of liquidity which has caused a fall of 36% in Cuba’s foreign trade in the first nine months of 2009.
And the solutions to the economic crisis are a period of wartime and deprivation: not paying debt nor to those of other countries or to creditors, restricting fuel consumption by closing unprofitable companies, asking the population to tighten their belts and further cut what Army General Castro called “excess gratuities,” starting with the food ration booklet.
Tags: Cuban foreign trade, Cuban Government, Economy, lack of liquidity, Raul Castro, Raul Castro government
The Rand Corporation has published a monograph titled: Domestic Trends in the United States, China, and Iran: Implications for U.S. Navy Strategic Planning, which “investigates current and projected domestic developments in the United States, China, and Iran in the areas of demographics, economics, energy consumption, the environment, and education in order to help the Navy understand how critical near-, mid, and far-term trends in these countries might influence U.S. security decisions in general.”
A section of the monograph looks at future trends and possibilities in the Caribbean and focuses on Cuba with a possible event of semi-chaos/civil war and US intervention:
The biggest near-term variable in the Caribbean is the future of Cuba after Fidel Castro passes from the scene. The Cuban economy has been very weak for decades, and Castro
Tags: civil war in Cuba, Cuban military, Economy, Fidel Castro, Latin America, MINFAR, RAND, Raul Castro, Revolutionary Armed Forces, semi-chaos in Cuba, United States, US intervention in Cuba, Western Hemisphere
Avoiding a social explosion is foremost on the minds of the Cuban nomenklatura. "El Maleconazo" which occurred on the streets of Havana's famous seawall in August, 1994 was the most significant demonstration of social unrest in the island.
A chorus of those sympathetic to the Cuban regime and/or part of the nomenklatura are voicing their opinion about the need to reform Cuba’s system or else social instability caused by a lack of change to the status quo will lead to political destabilization through violence.
A member of said chorus is Ignacio Ramonet (penned an autobiography of Fidel Castro and was editor-in-chief of Le Monde Diplomatique) who wrote a revealing article last week giving a purview of the current situation in Cuba.
Ramonet states: “Raul Castro and his team have dedicated themselves to three pressing problems: food, public transportation, and housing. Three domains where shortages, poverty, and dysfunctions favor permanent unrest of the population.”
He cites Aurelio Alonso, sub-director of Casa de las Am
Tags: Cuba, Cuban Communist Party, Cuban Government, Economy, Havana, Raul Castro
Cuban police motorcyclists patrol the streets of Havana. Image: AFP/Getty
La Jornada (Mexico) reports Cuba’s black market “could place in jeopardy the revolution’s very existence,” whereby the national police has hardened its vigilance against the underground economy which could become a high priority mission, according to an official communique released Sunday.
“There is a war without barracks against illegalities and crime,” the unsigned communique published in the Havana weekly Tribuna.
Reported were raids executed in the last two months in the capital including operations against 100 factories, 60 shops and 200 clandestine warehouses.
The campaign started in September in the aftermath of the hurricanes including a system of searching passengers in police checkpoints throughout roadways.
[H/T: La Nueva Cuba]
Tags: crackdown, crime, Cuba, Economy, factories, Havana, police checkpoints
Mexico’s Informador reports on the increased expression of violence in the island. Even though violence is minor in Cuba compared to other Latin American countries, the island is not exempt from that type of expression, which has increased recently and acknowledged by state media, asserts the daily.
The greater question for Raul Castro’s government lies when social violence spirals out of control and becomes political in nature resulting in a destabilizing variable.
[H/T: La Nueva Cuba]
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Tags: Cuban Government, Economy, Government, Police, political stability, Raul Castro, social violence, Violence
Army General Raul Castro wearing a white guayabera gave a televised address before the National Assembly (Cuban Parliament) yesterday addressing critical issues befacing the country.
The BBC calls Castro’s address his most sombre assessment of Cuba’s economic situation since he succeeded his brother Fidel in February. He said would have to lift restrictions on salaries more slowly than anticipated and key reforms could be affected by global rises in food and oil prices.
Castro said “the salary problem” was being studied and would be addressed “gradually and according to priorities” but that quick action may not be possible.
Castro’s speech was preceded this week by National Assembly meetings in which government officials warned that belt-tightening would be needed due to rising prices for fuel and imports. They also said the government would decentralize a sagging construction sector to make it more efficient and consider raising the retirement age to help Cuba cope with an aging population.
[Photo: AFP]
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Tags: Cuban Communist Party, economic situation, Economy, National Assembly, Raul Castro
Stratfor’s Global Market Brief assesses Cuba’s future economic reforms, which will be slow paced.
Some snippets of the brief:
Meanwhile, the Cuban economy faces significant problems. Its black market is growing significantly. Inequality is on the rise, along with corruption and crime. Its agricultural output is in decline and its industry inefficient. Though Cuba is unlikely to address these problems by embarking upon an openly free-market, capitalist course, it is no secret that Raul has been looking to China and Vietnam as candidates for economic emulation.
Raul Castro clearly would prefer to model any economic reforms on China, which has maintained state control along with its rapid gross domestic product growth. China is approximately 86 times larger in population than Cuba, but with a much larger proportional rural population
Tags: China, Cuban economy, Economy, Raul Castro, Venezuela
Wired explores Cuba’s potential as an ethanol player post-Fidel:
Fidel Castro hates ethanol. He thinks it punishes the poor by driving up food prices. But Cuba produces a lot of sugar, and with Fidel’s brother Raul — a fan of biofuels — calling the shots (at least for the time being), Cuba could become a key player in the global ethanol game.
It wouldn’t happen overnight, and it would take a huge investment in the country’s rickety sugar industry, but Cuba has the potential to produce 3.2 billion gallons of ethanol annually, according to an analysis (.pdf) by Juan Tomas Sanchez of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy. Another Cuba expert, Jorge Hernandez Fonseca, puts the figure (.pdf) closer to 2 billion gallons but even that figure would place Cuba third — behind Brazil and the United States — in worldwide production.
Of course, reaching either of those numbers would require Raul Castro to open the door to foreign investment, but that may not be as unlikely as it sounds. The Washington Post notes there’s speculation that Fidel’s exit opens the door to economic reform like we’ve seen in China, and it’s worth noting Cuba is quietly modernizing its ethanol infrastructure.
Raul Castro is seen as a pragmatist who is more concerned with improving Cubans’ daily lives than spreading la revoluci
Tags: China, Cuban economy, Economy, Ethanol, Fidel Castro, Foreign investment, Raul Castro, Tourism
- Mexico’s center-right president to improve relations with Cuba and shun Cuba’s opposition.
- US hegemony over the Western hemisphere, a thing of the past?
Tags: Economy, Fidel Castro, Mexico
O Estado De S.Paulo reports Brazil’s President Lula da Silva will offer Cuba $1 billion dollars in credits to finance the purchase of aliments, housing construction, and exploration of nickel as well as other projects, affirm Brazilian diplomats.
[Photo: Reuters -- Cuban interim-President Raul Castro and Brazilian President Lula da Silva review FAR Honor Guards.]
Tags: Brazil, Cuban Government, Economy, Housing, Lula da Silva, Nickel, Raul Castro
Brazil plans to offer $500 million in financing to Cuba. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be in Havana today, reports Valor Economico. Lula is expected to announce agreements allowing Petroleo Brasileiro SA to explore oil in areas in the Gulf of Mexico that are controlled by Cuba, where Petrobras will build a lubricant factory.
Commentary on a new No. 2 in Cuba.
Carlos Lage, who has gained importance as a political actor in Cuba’s hierachy, evaluates housing construction in Villa Clara.
Cuban Government further lowers housing construction goals.
Tags: Brazil, Carlos Lage, Construction, Economy, Housing, Lula da Silva
According to AP via International Herald Tribune, trade between Cuba and China grew by 23 percent to more than US$2 billion (
Tags: China, Economy, Military, Trade
The president, Fidel Castro, is unlikely to return to office. Following the handover of power “temporarily” to his brother, Raul Castro, in July 2006, the succession has in effect already taken place. This reduces political risk in the event of Fidel Castro’s death. Raul’s leadership style is less centralised, and he is likely to introduce some liberalising economic measures in the coming year. Despite these changes, no improvement in Cuban-US relations is expected until 2009, when a new US president will take office. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects that US sanctions will be eased before the end of 2009, but our forecast does not anticipate normalisation of relations. Cuban economic reforms will be gradual, with an expansion in the role of markets and price, wage and exchange rate reforms. The GDP growth surge of 2005-06 will give way to lower, but still firm, expansion. Foreign investment and financing flows will be sufficient to cover a current-account deficit of 1-2% of GDP.
Key changes from last update
Political outlook
Within Cuba, a broad public debate has raised expectations that policy adjustments will increase living standards in the coming year. If the government fails to deliver, the level of frustration will grow. However, there is still no sign of revolt.
The US president, George W Bush, has confirmed that there will be no easing of hostility towards the Cuban government, despite the change in leadership and signs of economic liberalisation ahead.
Economic policy outlook
Following a public debate on economic policy that proved to be broad and challenging, we expect important economic policy initiatives in the coming months.
Economic forecast
In the absence of new data, our economic forecast is unchanged
Tags: Cuban-US relations, Economy, Fidel Castro, Raul Castro
The Economist’s assessment of the World for 2008 has been published, and forecasts the following for Cuba:
GDP growth: 5.4%
GDP: $49bn (PPP: $134bn)
Inflation: 4.3%
Population: 11.2m
GDP per head: $4,350 (PPP: $11,970)
The country is changing, but at an evolutionary rather than a revolutionary pace. The coming year will see Fidel Castro (81) move upstairs
Tags: Economy, Fidel Castro, Raul Castro
Jos
Tags: Economy, GNP, Jos
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has published a volume addressing international security issues facing the U.S. in 2008 which includes a section on Cuba.
Some key observations:
- The succession in power from Fidel Castro to his brother Ra
Tags: Economy, Fidel Castro, fidelismo, Raul Castro, US policy
GDP to increase in 2011
5 September 2010 at 1409 in Commentary, Economy, Government by Armando F. Mastrapa 3d
The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts for Cuba, “fiscal retrenchment will limit growth to only 2% in 2010. In 2011 policy relaxation will allow growth to pick up to 3.7%.”
Tags: Cuba, economist intelligence unit, Economy, eiu, GDP