El Pais

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Mauricio Vicent wrote in today’s El País that in the official media of Cuba there is talk of “reforms” that will be launched after August.

According to sources consulted by the daily, the Raul Castro government will make ”changes,” which include:

  • expansion of self-employment and above all the cooperativization of some services;
  • continuation of reductions in subsidies and social costs with the aim of making the system sustainable;
  • slowly reduce health services, which will have a social impact;
  • elimination of a dual currency;
  • renegotiate debt to cut financial tensions

Even sources of the Catholic Church and Spanish Foreign Ministry have heard Raúl Castro say “of the reforms.”

Vicent further adds, that sources say, Raúl Castro does not bet on Venezuela as a source of financial support and wants to avoid a repeat of what was experienced with the former Soviet Union, and the devastating economic crisis of the 1990s.

This speculation leads to the question, are there profound reforms underway that will encompass economic and political change or are they mere cosmetic changes to give an illusion and bide enough time for the Cuban regime to stay afloat until the next crisis imperils its existence?

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  • The European Union will revise its “Common Position” which conditions the position of the community over links with Cuba about the human rights situation on the island. [Clarín]
  • Cuban Catholic Church and the Spanish government set up mechanism to free Cuban political prisoners. [El País]
  • U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is “hopeful” after prisoners release and welcomes agreement between the Cuban Catholic Church and Cuban government. [IPS]
  • Despite the liberation of some Cuban dissidents, many stay in prison. [Human Rights Watch]

(Image: Diplomacy board game from Avalon Hill.)

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Former Mexican Foreign Affairs Minister Jorge Castañeda questions whether this is the beginning of the end of the Castro regime in his El País op-ed, where he formulates three factors precipitating an end: (i) a fierce economic crisis; (ii) the death of Orlando Zapata, Damas de Blanco movement and Guillermo Fariñas hunger strike; and (iii) Fidel Castro is no longer at the helm of day-to-day affairs.

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Michael ReidThe Economist‘s Latin America editor and author of the book Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America’s Soul, has a piece in El Pais about Cuba and Venezuela’s mutual dependence:

That said, the Castro brothers have failed to implement a strategy to ensure the survival of their regime beyond their lives. Raul had a plan: convoluted Vietnamese-style economic reforms that combines capitalism and communist political control, and the appointment of younger leadership at a party congress to be held this year. But Fidel’s recovery of a botched abdominal surgery that almost killed him in late 2006, changed these plans. The indefinite postponement of the party conference and the freezing of reforms demonstrates Fidel’s veto power continues.

By blocking reform, Fidel has inextricably tied his legacy to the survival of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. Without free Venezuelan oil, unrest in a Cuba without reform would reach uncontrollable levels. But Chavez also depends on Fidel: Cuban doctors who staged the primary care program Barrio Adentro have returned to the island, but there are many security officials and Cuban espionage protecting Chavez from political threats.

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PKD-The-Minority-Report

“Security measures can be ordered to prevent the commission of crimes or as a result of their having been committed. In the first case they are called pre-criminal security measures; and in the second, post-criminal security measures.” Cuba Criminal Code, “Dangerousness” Law, Chap. III, Art. 76, Sec. 1

El País, Spain’s center-left daily, published an editorial today on repression in Cuba, referencing the “dangerousness” law of the Cuban criminal code that is reminiscent of Philip K. Dick’s futuristic short story The Minority Report, which describes Precrime, a system which punishes people with imprisonment for crimes they would have committed.

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