The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has published a volume addressing international security issues facing the U.S. in 2008 which includes a section on Cuba.
Some key observations:
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- The succession in power from Fidel Castro to his brother Raúl appears to be a done deal, but the evolution away from fidelismo will start only upon the death of its namesake. When that happens, Raúl Castro steps out from behind the shadow of his flamboyant sibling and the beginning of a transition process to a new order in Cuba may commence.
- Even now as de facto chief of state and head of government, Raúl will not have complete authority while his brother lives. When Raúl finally is left alone in power, the potential for change in Cuba grows exponentially, given Fidel’s single-minded dedication to preserving Cuba as a police state with a controlled economy. But whatever glue Fidel’s persona contributed to holding the system together and generating international support will be lost to Raúl, who has neither the charisma nor the disposition to play the part of revolutionary icon.
- When Raúl finally is left alone in power, the potential for change in Cuba grows exponentially, given Fidel’s single-minded dedication to preserving Cuba as a police state with a controlled economy. But whatever glue Fidel’s persona contributed to holding the system together and generating international support will be lost to Raúl, who has neither the charisma nor the disposition to play the part of revolutionary icon.
