The newly named chief of Cuba’s Western Army (strategically far more important than Central and Eastern Army), Division General Lucio Morales Abad, replaced Army Corps General Leopoldo Cintra Frias, who is now “number two” in the defense ministry after General Julio Casas Regueiro.

What is known so far about General Morales Abad, per Cuban media:

• Chief, General Staff, Western Army;
• four decade service to the military;
• different command levels in artillery and tank units

A Google search of web sites in Cuba for further biographical information about Morales Abad yielded very little (majority of hits were announcing his appointment), however, what is also known is that he is a Raulista and was chosen for this command because he is loyal acolyte of Army General Raul Castro.

Is his designation merited competence in command leadership or solely based on loyalty?

Promotions within the Cuban armed forces in the past have been based on loyalty as opposed to military professionalism and rising through the ranks.

Lone Wolf?

The remaining general appointed by Fidel Castro is Army Corps General Ramon Espinosa Martin.  What will become of Espinosa Martin, who hasn’t always seen eye to eye with Raul Castro.

Will he remain as chief of the Eastern Army or replaced with a Raulista acolyte?  We await to see.

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Assessment

The collapse of the Soviet Union has deprived the Cuban Army of its major economic and logistic support, and has had a significant impact on equipment numbers and serviceability. The army remains well trained and professional in nature, and is likely to have adopted previous doctrine to take into account the current shortcomings in the quality and quantity of equipment held.  While the lack of replacement parts for its existing equipment and the current severe shortage of fuel have increasingly affected its operational capability and may continue to do so on some scale, Cuba remains able to offer considerable resistance to any regional power, including the United States. The international political environment, the country’s economic plight and Castro’s own conclusions about his Cold War interventions abroad, have limited Cuba’s efforts to export Marxist revolution. A new relationship with oil rich Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has translated into a recent boost in operational readiness, mainly due to oil credits and donations. So far this has not translated into a formal re-surge in Cuban military prowess, but Cuban instructors and doctrine is bound to penetrate the new ALBA member’s armed forces (Venezuela, Nicaragua and Bolivia). However, most of Cuba’s foreign serving personnel are doctors.  As in other Latin American countries, the army is the dominant service even though the FAR suffers from less interservice rivalry than most armed services in the region. There are three major geographical commands: Cuantos, Comandos, and Geográficos. Each command is designed to be a self-sufficient entity for operational.

Deployments, tasks and operations

The defined role of the FAR is to defend the Revolution from internal and external enemies and this has in the past included giving material assistance to friendly governments in the furtherance of Marxist-Leninist ideals. Today, the only realistic objective of the FAR is the defence of Cuban territory.

Source: Jane’s World Armies

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The change in command of the Central Army, which took place at the end of May with an unknown military figure, raises speculation General Raul Castro is shoring up his group of generals loyal to him and the military regime under his control.

Division General Raúl Rodríguez Lobaina who replaced Army Corps General Joaquín Quintas Solá (serving as the Central Army’s chief for over 20 years) is a virtual unknown even though he has 40 years of military service as announced by the Cuban government.

A thorough search through Cuban media yields very little biographical information about Rodríguez Lobaina who is of African descent.

The only public source about the general appears in a communique dated February 25, 2006 from the Cuban Federation of Radioafcionados website announcing the attendance at the time of Brigadier General Rodríguez Lobaina (then Chief of Matanzas Military Region) at a provincial political ceremony celebrating Radioaficionado Day.

Moreover, there are no photos of Rodríguez Lobaina in official acts/ceremonies in Cuba’s media except for the following photo, where his face is not visible, which was published in Granma during a military ceremony honoring the change of command.

Why did General Castro appoint a general who served under the command of the all important Western Army to be chief of the Central Army and not promote within the Central Army?  Could it be that there is concern from Raul himself and his generals about avoiding any fissure within the perceived “monolithic” hierarchy of the military.

Army Corps General Joaquín Quintas Solá has been dispatched to a bureaucratic desk job in the MINFAR.  Quintas Solá was appointed by Fidel Castro and along with his counterpart in the Eastern Army, Army Corps General Ramon Espinosa Martin are viewed as not meeting eye-to-eye with former Defense Minister Raul Castro.

The seat of power for the Castro regime has always been the capital. And the battle to sustain control of the streets will be played out in the capital.

The Central Army’s proximity to Havana plays heavy to what-if scenarios in the hierarchy of the military.

What would happen if the chief of the Central Army’s was to mutiny along with his staff and target their troops and tanks to take control of the capital in a fissure of command once Fidel Castro dies?

Stability and control is far easier to maintain when loyal acolytes are in command of key positions of a potential rival army and its threat of geographic proximity to the base of power — Havana.

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