Granma

Diario Granma (Cuban Communist Party’s official newspaper) published an article last Friday concerning the generational shift, as per the Cuban Government’s view, in the parliamentary body (National Assembly of the People’s Power) wherein the Communist Party is the only political actor designated to participate in the upcoming January 20th parliamentary election.

Interesting statistics of note:

• Of the 614 candidates for the parliament, 374 (60.91 percent) were born after the triumph of the revolution in 1959. Another 134 (21.82 percent) were under the age of ten. Only 106 candidates (17.25 percent) knew capitalism in Cuba, that is to say, those who were part of the generation that defeated the Batista dictatorship and began building socialism.

• In terms of continuity and renewal, 36.78 percent of the candidates (224) are incumbents in the current 609 member legislature. Therefore, a little over 63.22 percent (385 legislators) will be newcomers in the new legislature of 614 members with the additional 5 members reflecting population growth.

• 42.16 percent of the candidates (265) are women and a majority (481) of the candidates have a university level education (78.34 percent) and 127 (20.68) with high school and/or technical degrees.

Delegates of the Municipal Assemblies of Santiago de Cuba and Segundo Frente approved on December 3 the candidacy of Maximum Fidel Castro, Army General Raúl Castro and Commander of the Revolution Juan Almeida as candidates to the Cuban National Parliament.

On December 27, Fidel Castro sent a message to the National Assembly signaling a possible relinquishment of power.  In his letter, he stated:

“What the international press has emphasized most in its reports on Cuba in recent days is the statement I made on the 17th of this month, in a letter to the director of Cuban television’s Round Table program, where I said that I am not clinging to power. I could add that for some time I did, due to my youth and lack of awareness, when, without any guidance, I started to leave my political ignorance behind and became a utopian socialist. It was a stage in my life when I believed I knew what had to be done and wanted to be in a position to do it! What made me change? Life did, delving more deeply into Martí’s ideas and those of the classics of socialism. The more deeply I became involved in the struggle, the stronger was my identification with those aims and, well before the revolutionary victory I was already convinced that it was my duty to fight for these aims or to die in combat.”

As the Maximum Leader’s designated successor, Army General Raul Castro might be elected to succeed Fidel Castro as President of the Council of State and  Council of Minister, however, Fidel may assume the symbolic post of titular head of government.

One political figure whose ascendancy is evident is Carlos Lage.  Will his ascendancy bring the technocrats to shared power with the prevalent political force: the military?

It remains to be seen, but if change is not in the horizon ,vis-à-vis a political and economic aperture, then what looms for the status quo regime is instability and a serious threat to its sustained power.

(H/T: Cuaderno de Cuba)

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A new Latell Report follows:

President George W. Bush’s address on Cuba policy at the State Department on October 24 was his first since Raul Castro’s accession to power fifteen months ago. The president used powerful, and at times evocative, language in reaffirming his administration’s commitment to maintaining the economic embargo until a genuine democratic transition begins on the island. He welcomed several supportive members of congress–conservative Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats– and introduced family members of imprisoned Cuban journalists and democracy activists. Bush was adamant that the United States not acquiesce in a dynastic succession, insisting that life will not improve for Cubans by exchanging one dictator for another.

He seemed, moreover, to move policy into a more activist mode than had been the case since Fidel Castro yielded power in July 2006. By many accounts, actions in support of Cuban dissidents have been more cautious since then. The administration has also generally eschewed confrontational language, perhaps in the belief that the new regime’s grip on power was tenuous and out of concern that instability on the island would provoke another mass seaborne migration to Florida.

But to whatever extent such considerations may have inhibited policy, they now appear to have been superseded. The president said, the operative word in our dealing with Cuba is not stability. . . (it) is freedom. . . Now is the time to support the democratic movements growing on the island. Now is the time to stand with the Cuban people as they stand up for their liberty. If he meant that new or more assertive policies are in the works to support the democratic opposition, he provided no details.

But in other, potentially more significant ways, the president ventured beyond the standard rhetoric and policy prescriptions of recent years. For the first time, perhaps in the entire history of American relations with the Castro brothers regime, a president made public overtures to Cuban military and security personnel. Seeking to enlist at least some of them as agents of democratic change, Bush said that Cuba must find a way to reconcile and forgive those who have been part of the system, but who do not have blood on their hands. They are victims too.

Remarkably, substantial segments of the speech were excerpted in Granma, Cuba’s communist party daily. The preceding conciliatory commentary was deleted, but another, equally potent one was printed on page two of the Cuban newspaper. It was a both a plea and a promise to the Castro brothers nomenclatura.

You may have once believed in the revolution. Now you can see its failure. When Cubans rise up to demand their liberty . . . you’ve got to make a choice. Will you defend a disgraced and dying order by using force against your own people? . . . There is a place for you in the free Cuba.

It is difficult to understand why Cuban authorities took the unprecedented step of quoting a sitting American president. I cannot recall another comparable example since relations were severed in 1961. And much of the verbiage that was aired by the Cuban media was highly critical, even incantatory, directed at different Cuban audiences, including schoolchildren and the country’s discontented youth.

Perhaps the new regime is so confident of its strength and popularity that it does not fear how the president’s remarks will be received. Alternatively, reformers who appear to be ascendant in the current leadership may have wanted to add the president’s words to the increasingly dynamic mix of issues the regime has encouraged the populace to debate and discuss. Many pragmatists no doubt agree with President Bush that life will not improve for Cubans under their present system of government. By allowing that conclusion to be aired in Cuba’s controlled media, they may have signaled their concurrence.

The president also cited many items from the long list of pre-conditions for normalizing relations that are specified in the 1996 Cuba Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act (Helms-Burton). But one of the most prominent of them was not mentioned in any form. Section 205 (a) (3) of Helms-Burton demands the dissolution of Cuba’s most powerful organs of internal repression: the Department of State Security in the Ministry of Interior, the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution, and the Rapid Response Brigades that often inflict violence on dissidents. The omission of this previously crucial requirement for a transition government may have been no more than a drafters or editors oversight. But its absence is consistent with the speech’s central theme of willingness to reconcile with members of Cuba’s uniformed services.

Other straws in the wind suggest that a certain new level of bilateral security cooperation has already been instituted. The State Department’s two most recent annual reports on international terrorism, issued by the Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism, reveal that Cuba has assured the United States that it will no longer provide safe haven to new U.S. fugitives who may enter Cuba.

Last year, the Cuban government made good on that commitment by repatriating an American who landed a stolen plane in Cuba. The 2006 State Department report, issued in April 2007, indicates that after several meetings between U.S. diplomats in Havana and Cuban officials, the man was returned last October for prosecution. The report concludes that this was the first instance in which the Cuban government permitted the return of a fugitive from U.S. justice.

It is not clear whether this new Cuban policy results from a unilateral decision to seek greater bilateral security cooperation or from a process of mutual concessions. So far, the administration has not commented beyond the cursory wording included in the two annual counter terrorism reports.

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