Radio Netherlands examines Russian interest in restoring its military base in Cuba and the Cuban government’s lack of interest:

Cuba itself has already made it fairly clear that there’s no question of a renewed Russian military colonialism. The country is still sore at the fact that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought an end to the liberal flow of funds from Moscow. And the leadership in Havana hasn’t forgotten that ten years later, without any consultation, Russia ended to its last military presence in Cuba: the vast intelligence base in Torrens, better known as “Lourdes”, from which legend has it a pin could be heard falling anywhere in the southern United States, and all US communications could be tapped.

The present Cuban leader Raúl Castro would also seem to have little to gain from Russian sabre-rattling over Cuba, particularly as he now seems to be taking cautious steps towards improving relations with the United States.

Quite apart from all the overblown talk surrounding Cuba, it’s plain that the Russian army is using the extra billions in revenue from oil and gas sales to bring its military hardware up to scratch. New nuclear weapons and nuclear submarines have been developed, and an order has just been made for twelve new aircraft carriers (albeit of a modest size and without the usual nuclear propulsion), and there are feverish attempts to lift the armed forces out of the mess into which the once so mighty Red Army descended after the fall of the Soviet Union.

From the perspective of military strategy, there is no sign that Moscow has the least interest in Latin America, other than for occasional arms sales to countries like Venezuela. Russia’s geopolitical priorities now lie in Asia, where it is seeking a strategic partnership with China and India, and was co-initiator of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a potential future counterpart to NATO. In contrast to the vague events now surrounding Cuba, in 2003 there was a military exercise to really set the alarm bells ringing. For the first time since 1991, Russian strategic bombers appeared above the Indian Ocean. The scenario of the exercise was plain enough: how to take out an entire US naval unit using nuclear cruise missiles. There’s nothing vague about that.

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Interfax via BBC Monitoring:

Chairman of the Russian government [Prime Minister] Vladimir Putin believes that Russia should restore its positions [as received] in Cuba.

“We need to restore our positions in both Cuba and in other countries,” Putin said at a meeting of the government presidium today.

Putin heard a report from Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin about the latter’s visit to Cuba as co-chairman of the Russian-Cuban intergovernmental commission.

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Stratfor provides analysis about the current strategic issue in the Western Hemisphere and poses the question: what about subs instead of planes in Cuba?

Summary

With rumors flying (along with subsequent denials) about the potential stationing of Russian military aircraft in Cuba, there is another possibility: the stationing of Russian submarines. It would be a Cold War redux — and an effective way for Russia and the United States to hone their submarine and anti-submarine tactics.

Analysis

During the Cold War — even after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 — Cuba offered an important port for Soviet submarine operations along the U.S. eastern seaboard. Though the rumor mill this week has concentrated on Cuba as a potential refueling base for Russian aircraft — one with no munitions — there is another (unmentioned) possibility worth considering: What about the return of Russian submarines?

U.S. submarine operations in the Barents Sea enjoy not only the use of nearby ports in NATO countries but also rotations facilitated by a fleet of some 50 attack submarines. Russia’s submarine fleet is doctrinally inclined more toward surge deployments in times of crisis than the sustained global presence that the U.S. Navy has been perfecting since World War II. Though Russian subs could lurk in Atlantic waters close to Washington, Russian crews are neither accustomed to nor drilled in such lengthy deployments.

In addition, given the neglect of the 1990s on Russia’s fleet — subsequent maintenance and upgrades aside — reliability remains a concern, and lengthy Russian deployments leave subs much farther from friendly ports than do lengthy deployments of the U.S. fleet.

[Read more →]

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Via VOA:

The U.S. military is reviving a naval command for the Latin America and the Caribbean region, which has not been active since World War II. Officials say the re-establishment of the Fourth Fleet does not change the Navy’s mission in the area. But VOA’s Brian Wagner reports some regional leaders fear it will lead to an increased U.S. military presence.

The head of Southern Command, Admiral James Stavridis is to lead a ceremony Saturday for the re-establishment of the Fourth Fleet based in Mayport, Florida. The fleet was created in 1943 to guard against enemy boats, submarines and blockade runners, and was retired shortly after the end of World War II. Since then, the Second Fleet based in Virginia has handled naval operations throughout the Atlantic Ocean.

But military officials say now it is time to renew the Fourth Fleet command to oversee ongoing operations in the Caribbean and Latin America, such as joint training, counterdrug operations and disaster relief.

[...]

Some Latin American leaders, however, see the carrier visit and the re-establishment of the Fourth Fleet as a new U.S. military push in the hemisphere.

At a recent trade summit, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said the U.S. naval command could pose a threat to Venezuela’s vast oil resources.

Chavez said Latin American leaders should ask the United States what the Fourth Fleet plans to do in Latin American waters, and said he sees it as a clear threat.

In a Cuban state newspaper, former leader Fidel Castro cited an Argentine newspaper article suggesting the U.S. fleet could be used to seize food and energy resources, as prices for those goods are soaring. Bolivia’s President Evo Morales called it the Fourth Fleet of intervention.

Official news release from US Navy:

U.S. 4th Fleet Officially Re-established

Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Gary Roughead officially re-established U.S. 4th Fleet and named Rear Adm. Joseph D. Kernan as its commander during a ceremony at Naval Station Mayport July 12.

The ceremony followed the U.S. Naval Forces Southern Command (NAVSO) change of command, during which Kernan relieved Rear Adm. James W. Stevenson Jr.

Kernan, the dual-hatted NAVSO and 4th Fleet commander, is responsible for U.S. Navy ships, aircraft and submarines assigned from east and west coast fleets to operate in the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) area of focus, which encompasses the Caribbean, Central and South America and surrounding waters.

[Read more →]

Sphere: Related Content

Tags: Fidel Castro, International Relations

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Oxford University Press will publish in August a new book on the Bay of Pigs written by Howard Jones, Professor of History at the University of Alabama and a specialist in U.S. Foreign Relations.

I’m about to receive an advance copy of the book and will post a review.

Here’s a description:

In January 1959, as Fidel Castro entered Havana in triumph, Americans hailed the revolutionary as a hero. Then came Castro’s increasingly anti-American talk, the rise in his regime of the openly Marxist Che Guevara and Raul Castro, and seizures of American-owned assets. In little more than a year, President Dwight D. Eisenhower concluded that Castro must go.

In The Bay of Pigs , Howard Jones provides a concise, incisive, and dramatic account of the disastrous attempt to overthrow Castro. He deftly examines the train of missteps and self-deceptions that led to the invasion of U. S.-trained exiles at the Bay of Pigs. Ignoring warnings from the ambassador to Cuba, the Eisenhower administration put in motion an operation that proved nearly unstoppable even after the inauguration of John F. Kennedy. The CIA and Pentagon, meanwhile, both voiced confidence in the outcome of the invasion, especially after coordinating previous successful coups in Guatemala and Iran. As a vital part of the Cuban effort, the CIA sought to incite a popular insurrection by recruiting the Mafia’s help in engineering Castro’s assassination on the eve of the invasion. And so the Kennedy administration launched the exile force toward its doom in Cochinos Bay on April 17, 1961. Jones gives a riveting account of the battle–and the confusion in the White House–before moving on to explore its implications. The Bay of Pigs, he writes, set the course of Kennedy’s foreign policy. It was a humiliation for the administration that fueled fears of Communist domination and pushed Kennedy toward a hardline cold warrior stance. But at the same time, the failed attack left him deeply skeptical of CIA and military advisers and influenced his later actions during the Cuban missile crisis.

Richly researched, vividly written, The Bay of Pigs offers an engaging and thoughtful account of the turning point in Kennedy’s foreign policy and indeed in foreign policy for decades to come.

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La Nacion informs on the relations between Costa Rica and Cuba:

The months of tension between the governments of Oscar Arias and Raul Castro seem to have come to an end. There is frequent and growing dialogue between the ministries of Foreign Affairs of the two nations, even though the absence of diplomatic relations remains. Minister Bruno Stagno has met several times with his Cuban peer Felipe Perez. The Costa Rican official discarded any formality in those meetings, even though he admitted that the Ministry keeps open dialogue with Cuba and permanently watches over what is going on in the Island. Dr. Arias, who is for democracy and trade opening, endured attacks from Cuba early in his current term. He was called “a lackey of Yankee imperialism” by Havana. According to analysts, the changing trend is due to an apparent new order of things in Cuba, where Raul Castro took over his brother Fidel at the helm.

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