Jose Ramon Machado Ventura

Economist Intelligence Unit’s briefing on Cuba’s political state:

With Raúl Castro as president, expect little change in Cuba

The selection of Raúl Castro to succeed his brother, Fidel (81), as official president of Cuba confirms that the country is not in for substantive change, not even of the generational kind. Though it was widely believed that the younger brother (76) would rise to the presidency after Fidel’s retirement (announced on February 19th), there was a chance that the National Assembly would pass the reins of power to one of the so-called middle generation of leaders now in their fifties. This did not happen on February 24th, when that body anointed Raúl.

This is the first formal transition of power since the Cuban Revolution of 1959, and for that reason alone it is a milestone. Raúl, however, was already leading the country in his capacity as first vice-president and interim president since July 2006, when Fidel fell ill. Via the Communist Party newspaper, Fidel declared earlier in February that he would neither seek nor accept the presidency when the country’s National Assembly voted on February 24th. He said that his physical condition meant he could no longer fulfil his duties properly.

Not only did the National Assembly not pick a much younger man as president (a possible choice might have been Carlos Lage Dávila, one of six vice-presidents and de facto prime minister). It also selected as first vice-president, and next in the line of succession, José Ramón Ventura, at 77 even older than Raúl. A veteran of the 1959 Revolution, Mr Ventura has most recently served as organisational secretary of the Communist Party and member of its politburo.

Stability expected

With Raúl at the helm, there will be no major shift in Cuba’s political or economic model. Indeed, the new president has indicated that there are no plans to reform the one-party political system. And he has said he will consult with his older brother on all major decisions. Nor is any social upheaval expected.

However, this does not mean that there will be no evolution at all. Raúl has allowed, indeed has promoted, greater scope for criticism, dissent and open debate. Once considered a hardline communist and an enforcer, after assuming the role of acting president he launched a broad national discussion at all levels and has sought to strengthen institutions. The process of debate has continued in recent months in meetings and the state-controlled media, alongside the preparations for the National Assembly elections.

Although not much has come of it so far, the debate has raised expectations that reforms and improvements in living standards are in the pipeline. The areas of discussion have ranged widely, and include criticism of problems in the health service and calls for more private ownership in agriculture.

The government is not expected to make any sudden changes in the overall economic policy stance in the year ahead. However, adjustments in some areas, including price reforms, and liberalisation in food production and distribution, are likely to emerge from the discussion of economic efficiency and living standards. On the other hand, progress in improving the efficiency of economic management will be constrained by conservatism, price distortions and the government’s commitment to full employment. Certainly, full market liberalisation of the type envisaged in the “transition” economies of the former Soviet bloc is not on the agenda.

Still, given Raúl’s own advanced age, speculation will continue as to what might come next, say in five year’s time when the new president’s term ends and he might not seek another. By then the balance of power between the older revolutionaries and the younger leaders may well have changed, raising the possibility of a truer transition to a post-Castro era.

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The Latell Report for February:

Since the first years of the Castro brothers’ revolution Cuban leaders have jockeyed and maneuvered to be next after them in the line of succession. The allure of becoming the “third man” led some to such reckless hubris that they were purged or disgraced, considered threats by one or both of the Castros. In reality, none ever had a chance until last Sunday when, upon taking charge officially as Cuba’s president, Raul Castro anointed his long time associate, Jose Ramon Machado Ventura, as First Vice President of the governing Council of State.

“Machadito,” as he is known on the island, may not even have thought it possible. This obscure medical doctor and former comandante during the Castros’ insurgency in the late 1950s– perhaps best remembered in that era not for guerrilla heroics, but for having extracted a bullet from Che Guevara’s foot– is now positioned to lead Cuba after Raul. It was a choice that no one outside of Raul’s inner circle seems to have anticipated.

The seventy-seven year-old Machado, who as a youth reportedly associated with the pre-Castro Cuban communist party, has served in a variety of capacities, but mostly by toiling in the background as a party apparatchik. In 1965, he was named to the central committee of the newly constituted Castro era communist party, and has served on its politburo for decades. He was named, presumably by Raul, to the newly reconstituted party secretariat in May 2006, an indication that he and his patron were determined to revitalize party cadres and enhance its role.

Machado was singled out again for a top leadership role on July 31, 2006 when, in a proclamation signed by Fidel, Raul was granted provisional power and six other leaders were given important management portfolios. Machado, the perennial party commissar and ideological rector, was granted wide ranging authority over Cuba’s domestic and international educational programs. That appointment too was no doubt accomplished at Raul’s urging.

Little is known about Machado outside of Cuba, and even there he has remained inconspicuous. It is probably by his own choice that he rarely speaks in public, attracts little attention in the government media, and has never been identified with particular policy lines or revolutionary campaigns. If he has traveled abroad since the end of the Soviet empire, he has attracted no attention doing so. And there is no reason to suspect that he counts among the small circle of Cuba’s experts who analyze the United States and the bilateral relationship.

From the beginning he was closer to Raul and Che Guevara than to Fidel. Che’s biographer, Jon Lee Anderson, tells of “Machadito” traveling clandestinely to the Congo in 1965 to consult with Che who was then trying against all odds to launch a Marxist guerrilla movement, before moving on to Bolivia for the same purpose. But Machado did not go to Africa to fight, rather, according to Anderson, to inspect the health needs in rebel territory. I am not aware that Machado ever remained as an advisor, doctor, or foot soldier in any of the Cuban-sponsored guerrilla adventures of the 1960s, as so many other of today’s ranking Cuban military officers did when earning their stripes as internationalist warriors.

Machado attracted attention in 1967 when the Kremlin hosted fiftieth anniversary celebrations of the Bolshevik Revolution and, of course, expected Fidel Castro to attend. But relations between the two countries were severely strained because of unrelenting Cuban support for violent revolution. As communist party leaders from the rest of the world dutifully trudged off to Moscow, Castro stubbornly stayed home. Raul and other Cuban party elders also boycotted the historic event. It fell to Machado, then the health minister, to represent Havana and to do his best to assuage the irate hosts. With ties to “old communist” Carlos Rafael Rodriguez, previously a leader of the pre-Castro party and well-connected at the Kremlin, Machado was the ideal choice for that impossible mission.

He has rarely made much news since. In part that is why observers everywhere were stunned by his elevation. But in retrospect the logic of Raul’s decision is clear. And there should be no doubt that it was solely his decision, not Fidel’s, and that in all likelihood it was reached without even consulting Fidel. According to various accounts, Machado ran afoul of Fidel more than once in the 1960s and has been protected by Raul ever since from his unforgiving brother.

Though I admit I never thought of it before in these terms, Machado is perhaps the nearest thing in the Cuban leadership to Raul’s alter ego. He is a comforting, reassuring choice for Raul, a man who mirrors his own style, personality, and tastes, and who is certain to protect his interests and flanks. Both flirted openly with organized communism as young men opposed to the Batista dictatorship. They and their families have remained close. And since Machado apparently has never regained Fidel’s confidence, his elevation is an unmistakable signal of Raul’s authority now.

Machado has earned a reputation as a tough disciplinarian, a stalwart always eager to demand compliance with party guidelines. In Raul’s speech to the national assembly last Sunday upon assuming power in his own right he spoke for both of them when he stressed the need for order, discipline, and unity. He will now depend on his old friend to take the lead in restructuring many government institutions to make them more efficient. But Machado is not believed to be a repressive hardliner comparable, say, to former two time interior minister Ramiro Valdes or others with careers in the security services.

Machado’s thinking about the application of Marxist principles and discipline in Cuba today is unknown. But in the spring of 1968 he is said to have opposed the radical nationalizations and repression launched by Fidel in his “revolutionary offensive” aimed at extirpating the remnants of capitalist enterprise on the island. Looking ahead, he will faithfully support the structural and doctrinal changes Raul plans to introduce. There can be no doubt, for example, that he supports decentralizing reforms and the introduction of market mechanisms, especially in agriculture, that Raul broadly hinted were in the works during his speech last Sunday.

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