Latin America

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Jerry Brewer of Criminal Justice International Associates pens an op-ed (via Mexidata.info) on whether U.S. concessions are justified in light of the Castro regime’s destabilizing campaign in Latin America and continuous iron grip at home:

As Cuba and Latin America’s leftist regimes continue their efforts to prevent the U.S. from assisting its democratic neighbors with drug interdiction, and in the fight against transnational criminal insurgencies — violence and deaths continue to soar.  In Venezuela alone, reports indicate a murder rate of 220 per 100,000 people.  This is a higher rate than Mexico’s Ciudad Juarez.

Indeed, Caracas may currently be the most violent city in the world.

The U.S. must remember that Cold War espionage against us, by Cuba, is still alive and well.  Too, the Guantanamo base remains a strategic observation hub for Caribbean activities that potentially threaten free people within this hemisphere.  And it is clear Fidel Castro wants us out.

President Obama holds the cards.  To free the Cuban people is a decision of the Castro regime.

(Image: Front page of August 13 edition of El Nacional showing homicide victims in a Caracas morgue as a result of spiraling violence.)

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A Council on Foreign Relations fellow and researcher on the increasing power of the military in developing nations in today’s Boston Globe:

Call it military rule 2.0. And as a result, in many developing countries the military is more powerful than it has been in years. Thailand, where the military once seemed to have retreated to the barracks, now finds the armed forces playing a critical role in the current political standoff. In Pakistan, which also appeared headed toward democracy a decade ago, the military has returned to its role as the central power base. From Mexico to Peru to Honduras, Latin America has over the past five years witnessed a weakening of civilian rule over the military, as the armed forces act with increasing impunity.

[H/T: Bloggings by boz]

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  • Leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will visit Havana, Managua and Caracas in July to acknowledge regional support for separatist movements. [EFE]
  • Cuba restates its support of Argentina’s claim over the Falkland Islands (Malvinas) before the UN. [Prensa Latina]
  • The Cuban ambassador in the United Kingdom visited Northern Ireland and met with Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams. [Radio Rebelde]
  • Russian oil company, JSC Zarubezhneft, opens an office in Havana. [Radio Havana Cuba]
  • Syrian president Bashar al Assad is touring Latin America, which includes a visit to Cuba to discuss bilateral economic relations. [Reuters]
  • Cuban vice-president Esteban Lazo attends 10th ALBA summit in Ecuador. [Cuban News Agency]

(Image: Diplomacy board game from Avalon Hill.)

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Jorge Castañeda’s (former Mexican foreign minister and NYU professor) piece on geopolitics in Latin America and the two competing regional blocs: “Americas-1″—nations neutral to the conflict between the United States and Venezuela/Cuba or are openly opposed to the “Bolivariano” governments of Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Venezuela; and “Americas-2″—radical left nations moderately retreating but able to support their positions and defeat any attempts to cut their influence.

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Jerry Bremer, C.E.O. of Criminal Justice International Associates (a global risk mitigation firm headquartered in Miami, Florida) asks in his piece, “Cuba’s Agenda in Latin America Remains Clearly Nebulous,” via Mexidata.info,  whether Cuba is a conventional military threat to anyone, which perhaps they are not, however. In the intelligence sphere, especially in Latin America, they apparently are so:

The history of Cuba’s Castro regime shows that they have trained thousands of communist guerrillas and terrorists, and sponsored violent acts of aggression and subversion in most democratic nations of the southwestern hemisphere. U.S. government studies within the intelligence community documented a total of 3,043 international terrorist incidents in the decade of 1968 to 1978. Within that study, “over 25 percent occurred in Latin America.”

[...]

Recent reports by the U.S. DIA [Defense Intelligence Agency] show that Cuba has been expanding intelligence operations in the Middle East and South Asia.

[...]

…Cuba’s current intelligence and spy apparatus has been described and reported to be an active “contingency of very well-trained, organized and financed agents.”

[...]

Cuba has also maintained a well-organized and ruthless intelligence presence within Mexico, as have the Russians. Much of their activity involved in U.S. interests that include recruiting disloyal U.S. military, government, and private sector specialists.

The rest of the story is here.

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Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdiukov (left image) met with a Cuban military delegation to discuss the future of military-technical cooperation, stated defense ministry spokeswoman Irina Kovalchuk, reports Ria Novosti.

“The meeting focused on issues of stability in Latin America and the world at large, and in the current and future state of bilateral cooperation in the military and military-technical spheres,” Serdiukov said.

According to Kovalchuk, the Russian Defense Minister noted that 2009 marked a revival of Russian-Cuban cooperation in all areas.

“Military cooperation has an important place in the overall bilateral relations. We believe that the military and military-technical cooperation between the two countries is experiencing a positive change,” the spokeswoman quoted Serdiukov.

The Russian minister said that Cuba remains a good partner for Russia.

The Cuban delegation is led by Army Corps General Álvaro López Miera (right image), Vice-Minister of Cuba’s Revolutionary Armed Forces and Chief of the General Staff.

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Michael ReidThe Economist‘s Latin America editor and author of the book Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America’s Soul, has a piece in El Pais about Cuba and Venezuela’s mutual dependence:

That said, the Castro brothers have failed to implement a strategy to ensure the survival of their regime beyond their lives. Raul had a plan: convoluted Vietnamese-style economic reforms that combines capitalism and communist political control, and the appointment of younger leadership at a party congress to be held this year. But Fidel’s recovery of a botched abdominal surgery that almost killed him in late 2006, changed these plans. The indefinite postponement of the party conference and the freezing of reforms demonstrates Fidel’s veto power continues.

By blocking reform, Fidel has inextricably tied his legacy to the survival of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. Without free Venezuelan oil, unrest in a Cuba without reform would reach uncontrollable levels. But Chavez also depends on Fidel: Cuban doctors who staged the primary care program Barrio Adentro have returned to the island, but there are many security officials and Cuban espionage protecting Chavez from political threats.

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Brazilian author and philosopher Olavo de Carvalho’s interview on the socialist/communist resurgence in Latin America appears in the New American.

Read the rest of this entry »

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BBC Mundo reports on espionage in Latin America and Cuba’s role in it.

And of course there is Cuba.

“Both China and Russia’s services have a close relationship with the intelligence community there in an advisory role,” says Mr [Robert] Munks of Jane’s Intelligence Review.

Experts say this “advisory role” that Cuba has with Russia and China is spreading to other parts of Latin America.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Venezuelan Chavez (populist) vs. Colombian Uribe (centrist). Image: La Vanguardia

Venezuela's Chavez (populist) vs. Colombia's Uribe (centrist). Image: La Vanguardia

Washington-based defense analyst Hal Brands writes in “Dealing with Political Ferment in Latin America: The Populist Revival, the Emergence of the Center, and Implications for U.S. Policy,” a Strategic Studies Institute monograph about the two forms of governance in Latin America: radical populism and moderate, centrist.

Over the past decade, Latin America has experienced considerable political upheaval. Persistent poverty, corruption, and public insecurity have produced profound popular dissatisfaction and caused widespread ideological ferment. While the electoral results of this ferment are frequently described as a “lurch to the left,” such descriptions are misleading. Latin America is not experiencing a uniform shift to the left; it is witnessing a competition between two very different political trends.

He argues that references to a uniform “left turn” in the region are misleading, and that Latin America is in fact witnessing a dynamic competition between two very different forms of governance.

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Pickup trucks with machine guns, such as this Liberian 'technical', are the poor man's armoured cavalry.  Image: Army Technology.com

Pickup trucks with machine guns, such as this Liberian 'technical', are the poor man's armoured cavalry. Image: Army Technology.com

Army Technology.com website investigates new bulked-up civil-military hybrids that are taking the Latin American market by storm.

New York based consultant and commentator Richard Gasparre wrote the article, “Latin America Has ‘El Amor’ for Armour on Vehicles“, which assesses the current trend in armored vehicles in the southern cone with the following observation:

Up-armouring is becoming as popular among Latin American civilians as it is among US troops in the Middle East, and the paramilitarised environment in some Latin countries may breed a new species of bulked-up civil-military hybrids just as the prospect of unconventional warfare favoured the slimmed-down Stryker family of US armoured vehicles.

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Image: The Economist (13 AUG 09)

Image: The Economist (13 AUG 09)

The RAND Corporation examines China’s role as a global actor in the int’l system in its latest monograph titled: “China’s International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification.”

RAND describes Chinese global activism as “continually changing and has so many dimensions that it immediately raises questions about its current and future intentions and the implications for global stability and prosperity.”

Moreover, the study “examines how China views its security environment, how it defines its international objectives, how it is pursuing these objectives, and the consequences for U.S. economic and security interests.”

Chinese expanded strategic interests (including business interests) in Latin America and Cuba is accelerating at a fast pace.

As this study points out:

China is building political relationships to diversify its access to energy and other natural resources, with a focus on Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. Energy security encompasses diversifying both suppliers and supply routes.

China’s expanding involvement in Latin America is primarily (but not exclusively) driven by economic considerations: gaining access to markets, investments, and resources. The growth in China’s merchandise trade and investment in the region offers strong evidence of Chi- na’s economic motives. Trade between China and Latin America and the Caribbean has rapidly increased over the last several years, and as a result, this region has become more important to China. From 1999 to 2006, total merchandise trade increased from $8.2 billion to close to $70 billion, an almost tenfold increase. In 2006, Latin America and the Caribbean accounted for 4 percent of China’s total world trade, increasing its share by 1.7 percent since 1999.

China’s investments in Latin America are growing as well. China currently has projects in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, the Domini- can Republic, Guyana, and Venezuela, among other nations. China’s investments in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Venezuela are mainly focused on facilitating access to such natural resources as iron ore, copper, and oil (in the case of Venezuela); as such, its investments have been in the mining, transportation, manufacturing, and petroleum sectors.

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china-dragon-91-c

This week’s issue of The Economist has a briefing article assessing Latin American geopolitics aptly titled “The dragon in the backyard.”

The diversification of Latin America’s economic ties has raised in some minds a nagging question: does it foreshadow geopolitical changes? In the United States some Republicans worry that China’s growing economic weight poses a political threat. Hillary Clinton, the secretary of state, has noted that China and Iran are making “disturbing” gains in the region. But many Latin Americans prefer to see China’s expanding ties to their region as an opportunity. The region, with Brazil in the lead, is forging “south-south” alliances with China, India, Russia and South Africa to push for changes in what they all see as an unjust world economic order.

But for Latin America two other questions may be just as important, if not more so. The first is whether the industrialisation of China and India is helping or hindering its own economic development. The second is whether growing economic and political ties with non-democratic countries such as China, Russia and Iran could undermine Latin America’s own hard-won commitment to democracy.

Chinese investment has so far been overwhelmingly concentrated in mining and oil. (An early and still unusual exception is a joint venture with Brazil, dating from the 1980s, to produce communications satellites, in which China provides 70% of the finance and the technology.) Toromocho is just one of three big investments in copper projects in Peru. Chinese companies have become the biggest foreign investors in Ecuador’s oil industry.

Venezuela under Mr Chávez has sought closer ties not just with China but also with Russia and Iran. During the cold war the Soviet Union bankrolled Cuba for almost three decades, and supported left-wing movements and governments throughout the region. Last year Dmitry Medvedev became the first Russian president since those days to visit Latin America. Russia also sent a small naval flotilla to the Caribbean for joint exercises with Venezuela and Cuba. This was a tit-for-tat gesture after the United States sent ships to support Georgia after its brief war with Russia last summer.

Russia’s abiding interest in Latin America is focused on arms sales. Between 2005 and 2008 Mr Chávez bought Russian weapons worth $4.4 billion, including 24 Sukhoi fighters. As the oil price sank last year, shrinking Mr Chávez’s kitty, Russia offered a $1 billion credit line for further arms purchases. This month Mr Chávez said he would seek “battalions of tanks” from Russia on his next visit to Moscow, in response to an agreement letting America use military bases in neighbouring Colombia. But his most worrying purchase was of 100,000 Kalashnikov automatic rifles and a production line to build more. Colombian officials fear that some of these rifles will end up with the FARC guerrillas.

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Will Havana exercise its influence over Caracas' ties to Hezbollah at the behest of Tel Aviv?

La Nueva Cuba reports on Army General Raul Castro’s African tour (Algeria, Angola and Namibia), which included thereafter  a July 22 visit to Brazil.

His visit to the South American country has sparked interest among political observers/analysts and Western intelligence agencies.

Castro visited the Northeastern city of Salvador de Bahía, according to newswires, in a layover return from Angola, which was confirmed by the Cuban Embassy in Brasilia, AFP affirms.

The Cuban successor’s visit to African countries was Havana’s desperate attempt to negotiate an urgent need for loans to alleviate pressure from foreign transnationals claiming access to frozen accounts in Cuba since December 2008.

While other sources point to the possibility of Army General Castro’s Brazilian stopover as a secret meeting with Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who coincidentally arrived in Brazil the same day.

Israel wants clarifications from Havana in relation to the close relationship between Hugo Chavez and Iran, and the presence/proliferation of Hezbollah terrorist cells in Venezuela.

Tel Aviv wants Havana to exercise its influence over Caracas with the intention of impeding terrorist activities in Latin America and safe havens in Venezuela.

Israel considers Cuba capable of controlling Chavez’s conduct in regards to the subject of fundamentalist terrorism in Latin America.


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Lt. Gen. Maples testifying before Senate Armed Services Committe in 2007. Image: AP

Lt. Gen. Maples testifying before Senate Armed Services Committee in 2007. Image: AP

DIA Director Lt. Gen. Michael D. Maples, US Army, testified today before the Committee on Armed Services of the United States Senate delivering his Annual Threat Assessment.

With regards to Latin America, he stated: “The United States presently faces no major conventional military threats across Latin America, a number of concerns endure.”

Lt. Gen. Maples covered several Latin American countries (Venezuela, Bolivia, Colombia) in his written statement and in addition too opined on Cuba with the following:

The broad support that Cuban President Raul Castro receives from the military, security services and the Communist Party will likely enable him to maintain stability, security, and his own position. The Cuban military

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Image: UPI

DNI Dennis Blair testifying. Image: UPI

Admiral Dennis Blair USN (Ret.), new Director of National Intelligence, testified today before the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence outlining the annual assessment of national security threats to the United States.

The following section of his written testimony includes Cuba:

President Raul Castro

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mg729

The Rand Corporation has published a monograph titled: Domestic Trends in the United States, China, and Iran: Implications for U.S. Navy Strategic Planning, which “investigates current and projected domestic developments in the United States, China, and Iran in the areas of demographics, economics, energy consumption, the environment, and education in order to help the Navy understand how critical near-, mid, and far-term trends in these countries might influence U.S. security decisions in general.”

A section of the monograph looks at future trends and possibilities in the Caribbean and focuses on Cuba with a possible event of semi-chaos/civil war and US intervention:

The biggest near-term variable in the Caribbean is the future of Cuba after Fidel Castro passes from the scene. The Cuban economy has been very weak for decades, and Castro

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The Economist takes a look at the last 50 years of the Cuban revolution:

Half a century on, the euphoria is long gone. Everyday life in Cuba is a dreary affair of queues and shortages, even if nobody starves and violent crime is rare. It is the only country in the Americas whose government denies its citizens freedom of expression and assembly. Cuba

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Via CSM:

Venezuela’s Hugo Ch

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U.S. Joint Forces Command (USFCOM) released its Joint Operating Environment 2008 today outlining a strategic framework that forecasts possible threats and opportunities that will challenge the future US joint force.

USJFCOM is one of US Department of Defense’s nine combatant commands and has several key roles in transforming the U.S. military

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  • Russian President Dmitry Medvedev concluded his visit to Havana. He met with Fidel Castro and said that a new bilateral accord will be waiting for President Raul Castro when he visits Russia. Medvedev and Raul Castro signed mining and oil exploration deals and discussed “military technical cooperation.”
  • Raul Castro said that he is willing to meet with President-Elect Obama on “neutral ground”

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By Michael Reid | From The Economist’s The World in 2009 print edition

The world will have several reasons to take notice of Cuba in 2009. The year will begin with the commemoration of the 50th anniversary of Fidel Castro

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The National Intelligence Council (NIC) is the center for midterm and long-term strategic thinking within the United States Intelligence Community (IC). Yesterday, NIC released a report titled: “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World,” which attempts to “stimulate strategic thinking about the future by identifying key trends, the factors that drive them, where they seem to be headed, and how they might interact.”

Latin America, according to the report, will have “moderate economic growth, however, with continued urban violence.” Cuba in specific, along with Venezuela, “will have some form of vestigial influence in the region in 2025, but their economic problems will limit their appeal.” Furthermore, “Absent support from Venezuela, Cuba might be forced to begin China-like market reforms.

Click here to read the report (pdf).

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Via The Heritage Foundation:

This year was indeed historic for Latin America. Fidel Castro finally stepped down from power and handed the reins to his brother Raul. According to a panelist at a recent event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Raul, unlike his brother, is no charismatic political leader; he is a military man, a manager of bureaucracy. Does that matter? Perhaps.

The panelists also made clear Fidel will most certainly not return to power due to deteriorating health, though he still does manage to

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Russia Today (English-language news channel broadcast from Moscow) – Spotlight: Russia returns to Latin America

A Russian military delegation began their visit to Havana yesterday to review with their Cuban counterparts training and upgrading air defenses on the island.

The visit further reinforces a Russian resurgence while making its presence known in the United States’ own backyard – Latin America.

"Kvadrat" ADM system. Image: V. Tikhomirov Scientific Research Institute of Instrument Design

"Kvadrat" ADM system. Image: NIIP

RIA Volsti reports on Gazeta.ru‘s story: “According to the Russian Defense Ministry, this is a planned visit aimed at discussing the maintenance and repair of the Russian-made Igla, Osa, Kvadrat and P-18 and P-19 air defense systems. They are used to protect airfields and longer-range air defense systems, such as S-300 and S-400. Russian military analysts say Russia is unlikely to limit its assistance to Cuba to repairs of obsolete systems. Anatoly Tsyganok, head of the Military Forecast Center at the Institute for Political and Military Analysis, said the visit was connected to U.S. missile defense plans for Europe. Alexander Pikayev, an expert at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, echoes this view:

    “Although it will be denied officially, Russia’s actions are clearly a reply to the deployment of U.S. ballistic missile defense systems in the Czech Republic and Poland, and to NATO’s decision to help Georgia restore its air defense system.”

Also, the Swiss International Relations and Security Network takes a look at the resurgence and what it means for Russian and US strategic interests in the hemisphere:

For some Latin American countries, Russia’s return to the continent is a welcome development that limits US dominance. But for others, it bodes ill as they fear deliveries of Russian arms to the region may tilt the military balance, if not lead to a Cold War on the continent.

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The New York Times reports Russia has provided Fidel Castro’s prot

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Security in Latin America | Southern Pulse

Many of the legacies left by George W. Bush will focus on the War on Terror and Iraq. In Latin America, however, his legacy will be one that always remembers how Latin America was lost on his watch. As President Bush closes out his final months in office, many in Washington lament that the Monroe Doctrine, the foundation of Washington

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Stratfor issues weekly guidelines to its analysts and this week focuses on Latin America with a theory of normalized relations between Cuba and United States:

Cuba remains the mystery. Havana is oddly quiet. Are there discussions going on with the United States? There should be, as far as the United States is concerned, but with an election coming, such talks are hard to set up. The Cubans don

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The Eighth Defense Ministerial of the Americas: End of the Line?
by Ray Walser
Heritage Foundation

The Canadian government will host the Eighth Defense Ministerial of the Americas (DMA) September 2

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Senator Joe Biden’s (D-Deleware), Democrat VP candidate, background on Latin America is examined by the Americas Society, and his Cuba policy is noted:

The issue of U.S. policy toward Cuba has served as a source of debate between Obama and presumptive Republican candidate John McCain. On this matter, Biden has demonstrated support for the U.S. embargo against Cuba and voted in favor of the 1996 Helms-Burton Act, which opened the door to suing foreign companies that benefit from confiscated American property in Cuba. Following the resignation of longtime Cuban leader Fidel Castro, the senator from Delaware proposed easing restrictions on travel and remittances from the United States, establishing direct mail, and supporting the creation of small businesses in the island without relaxing the embargo.

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Jorge Casta

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Gary Brookins - Cold War

Gary Brookins Cartoon - Cold War

La Nueva Cuba has published two articles related to Russia, Cuba and Latin America.

The first is an editorial by Pravada titled “Battle for Ossetia transferred to Latin America,” stating Russia’s support of its allies (Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia) in Latin America. There is no English translation, however, a Spanish one is made by Urgente 24 from Argentina. And the second article is an interview (in Spanish) of Dr. Valdimir Zudarev (Vice-Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Latin American Institute) by Radio Nederland’s InformaRN, who is quoted as saying: “Moscow wants to return to Latin America.”

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By Jerry Brewer via Mexidata.info

Totalitarian dictatorships still exist and, as a matter of fact, they are very much alive in Latin America. Democracies throughout the Americas must immediately address their governments’ counterintelligence missions, and their strategic long and short range vision to monitor aggression and other forms of insurgency within their homelands.

Cuba’s intelligence and spy apparatus has been described as a “contingency of very well-trained, organized and financed agents.” Too, President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has adopted the previous Soviet-styled Cuban intelligence service (DGI) as his model for Venezuela’s security service, known as the DISIP, utilizing Cuban intelligence counterparts and advisors.

What is the history of Cuba’s communist trained spies?

Cuba has trained thousands of communist guerrillas and terrorists, and has sponsored violent acts of aggression and subversion in most democratic nations of the southwestern hemisphere. U.S. government studies within the intelligence community documented a total of 3,043 international terrorist incidents in the decade of 1968 to 1978. Within that study, “over 25 percent occurred in Latin America.”

Recent reports are that Cuba has been expanding intelligence operations in the Middle East and South Asia. This reported by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.

Cuba has consistently maintained a well-organized and “ruthless” intelligence presence within Mexico, as have the Russians. Much of their activity involved in U.S. interests that include recruiting disloyal U.S. military, government, and “private sector specialists. Read the rest of this entry »

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Aerial photo from 1962 of San Cristobal in Cuba.

Radio Netherlands examines Russian interest in restoring its military base in Cuba and the Cuban government’s lack of interest:

Cuba itself has already made it fairly clear that there’s no question of a renewed Russian military colonialism. The country is still sore at the fact that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought an end to the liberal flow of funds from Moscow. And the leadership in Havana hasn’t forgotten that ten years later, without any consultation, Russia ended to its last military presence in Cuba: the vast intelligence base in Torrens, better known as “Lourdes”, from which legend has it a pin could be heard falling anywhere in the southern United States, and all US communications could be tapped.

The present Cuban leader Ra

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RIA Novosti via BBC Monitoring:

Russia is resuming its presence in such an important geostrategic area as Cuba and Latin America, Andrey Klimov, deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, told RIA-Novosti. He was speaking about the results of head of the Russian Security Council Nikolay Patrushev’s visit to Cuba.

Klimov believes that Russia is resuming collaboration with its good old partner. He added that “Cuba has a very important geostrategic situation”. He thinks it’s right that Russia as a major power should be present there in the spheres of economy and security. The Duma deputy did not rule out that Russian military presence on the island may also be considered. “Russia is quite likely to take a decision on military presence in Cuba in response to the deployment of American ABM systems next to the Russian border,” the deputy said.

However, according to another cable from Ria Novosti:

Cuban leadership has no intentions to resume military cooperation with Russia after a surprise closure of a Russian electronic listening post in Lourdes in 2001, a high-ranking Cuban diplomat said on Saturday.

After Russian Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin visited Cuba on July 30-31, the council issued a statement saying: “Russia and Cuba are set to make consistent efforts to restore longtime ties in all spheres of cooperation and to expand and strengthen them.”

“The Cuban leadership is ready to cooperate with Russia in civilian sectors but it is unlikely to revive bilateral military cooperation, especially after what happened with Lourdes,” the anonymous diplomatic source said.

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Via Stratfor:

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin arrived in Cuba on July 30 to discuss Russian energy investments on the island with the Cuban leadership.

On the surface, this looks like any old state visit between the Russians and the Cubans. But there are a number of reasons why this visit in particular caught Stratfor

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Last week, STRATFOR published an analysis on the reaction by Fidel Castro to the release of the hostages in Colombia and his criticism of the FARC.

STRATFOR opined: “Cuba serves as a significant transshipment point for drugs headed north from South America”. See Organized Crime in Cuba.

Summary

Former Cuban President Fidel Castro released a statement July 5 in which he praised the freedom of recently released captives of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and called for the release of all remaining hostages. Castro

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From The Economist print edition

Outsiders bet that bigger changes are on their way

THE diplomatic sanctions imposed by the European Union after Cuba jailed 75 dissidents in 2003 were hardly painful. They mainly consisted of restricting political contacts and inviting dissidents to embassy functions, prompting a boycott by Cuban officials that became known as the

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Global Power Barometer‘s prognosis for Latin America in the next 3 to 36 months:

Latin America and the Rise of the Anti-American Left

In 1823, US President James Monroe issued the Monroe Doctrine, naming all of the Western Hemisphere, and particularly Latin America under the United States’ sphere of influence. Nearly 200 years later, the Monroe Doctrine looks like it could crumble

In 2005-2006, Latin American politics have been veering to the left with the electoral victories of Evo Morales in Bolivia, Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, and Rafael Correa in Ecuador (and a near victory by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico). These new leftist leaders add to current leftist regimes in Argentina, Brazil and Cuba. Perhaps the most outspoken of the leftist leaders is US opponent Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, who was just reelected by a 23% margin. These nations will pose a growing challenge to US interests in Latin America, as they seek to align themselves elsewhere. Already, Chavez has been making loud and brash statements on the world stage, pledging allegiance to Iran, denouncing President Bush and the United States at the United Nations, and signing trade pacts with China. Mercosur, the regional trade agreement instituted to promote free trade throughout South America (similar to NAFTA), is gaining supporters and seeks to give Latin America the same economic clout that the US and EU have. Furthermore, many Latin American nations are members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which seeks to provide viable alternatives to American and European hegemony. As Chinese investments in Venezuelan oil, in the reconstruction of the Panama Canal, and in mines grows in the region, watch for more independent action and less concord with the United States.

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“Latin America is deepening its democratic institutions, integrating into the global economy, and finally addressing endemic social inequalities — in short, turning into something of a success story even as most outsiders look the other way.”

Read Francis Fukuyama’s review of Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America’s Soul written by Michael Reid and published by Yale University Press.

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