National Assembly

Fidel Castro has written his latest reflection titled: “The Living and the Dead.” The Maximum Leader turned op-ed writer acknowledged recently sacked Education Minister Luis Ignacio Gómez Guriérrez as “truly exhausted” and “losing energy and revolutionary conscience.” While referencing his numerous travels abroad on behalf of Cuban education, Fidel chastised him for previous speeches whereby he took “personal accomplishment” instead of “extolling a body of work that was the authentic product of numerous revolutionary cadres.”

Fidel mentions the selection process of his replacement Ena Elsa Velázquez Cobiella, who was among the list of fifteen candidates.

However, further along his reflection, a cryptic passage summons the following:

“When I had the privilege of also being consulted on the eve of the election of the Council of State, I did not hesitate in proposing that prestigious military leaders –who brought our heroic people glory and moral authority– such as Leopoldo Cintras Frías and Álvaro López Miera, who are mature, modest, brimming with experience and energy, younger than the military officer who is one of the strongest and most threatening candidates for the leadership of the empire, should be proposed to the National Assembly as candidates for membership in the Council of State. I know other cadres, quite a bit younger than they are, highly qualified, with excellent training and not very publicized, people whom we must consider.”

Is this tacit acknowledgment that those generals selected to the Council of State where chosen because they are loyal acolytes of Raul Castro and the younger generation of capable officers were passed over?

Moreover, does this cryptic passage alert us to a discontent by officers, and that future and careful consideration by Raul’s regime should be made to advance the younger generation within the officer corps to quell such discontent?

Something worth pondering about the state of internal cohesion of the armed forces.

[H/T: La Nueva Cuba.]

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Colonel Alex Crowther (Research Professor of National Security Studies in the Strategic Studies Institue of the US Army War College) has penned an editorial on Cuba, Raul and the military.  He is also the author of Security Requirements for Post-Transition Cuba.

As Louis XV allegedly said, “Apres moi, le deluge.” Certainly people have thought that Cuba after Fidel would be the same. How would a Cuban state that revolves around him survive his departure? How would a government where no decision is too small for his attention function? How would the generations who have known no one other than the “Maximo Lider” handle the change? Luckily for the Cuban government, the answer is—there will be almost no change in the near future. No deluge, just a drizzle.

Cuba watchers conceptualize five post-Fidel scenarios. From most to least likely, they are: stable succession, stable transition, unstable succession, unstable transition, and chaos. But few people realize that stable succession has already occurred.

In late July 2006, Fidel passed control of the government to his younger brother. Raul Castro assumed the positions of President of the Council of State of Cuba, First Secretary of the Communist Party, and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, and he has been in charge ever since. On February 19, 2008, Fidel announced that he would not be seeking another term as President and Commander-in-Chief. However, Raúl has been the Minister of the Revolutionary Armed Forces (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias [FAR]) since 1959 and has held the number two position in the Politburo, the Cuban Council of State, the National Assembly of the Popular Power, and the Council of Ministers. Moreover, he has personally held all coercive power in the Cuban state since 1996, when the FAR took control of the Ministry of the Interior.

Fidel, Raúl, and their advisors understand their challenges and have prepared well for every eventuality posited in the five scenarios. The uneventful transfer of power in 2006 was especially helpful for them. Raul has been the de facto leader ever since, so the Cuban people have gotten used to him being in charge. His becoming the de jure leader only required a quick announcement. The fact that Fidel made the announcement indicates that Cuba’s current leaders are comfortable with their level of control.

What about other options? The current Cuban state apparatus, in uncontested control since 1959, is aimed at preventing either an unstable transition or chaos. Although the Cuban Communist Party ostensibly is in charge, the Castro brothers have been in control, splitting all senior positions between them. Leaders of every important state organization have proven their loyalty to Fidel and Raúl time after time, with no question about their support. Some have questioned whether there are two factions: Fidelistas and Raúlistas.

Although a preference for the leadership of one or the other may exist, the government remains united in the goal of self-continuation. Who is in charge? Raúl obviously is the main actor; however his lifestyle and advanced age imply that he will not be there long. Unlike his brother, he has a reputation for letting people run their organizations with a minimum of meddling. The Cuban system is working constitutionally. This legitimizes the regime in the eyes of many Cubans on the island. Several senior leaders assisted Fidel and now assist Raúl in running the government, including Ricardo Alarcón, the President of the National Assembly; Carlos Lage, the Executive Secretary of the Council of Ministers; Felipe Roque, the Foreign Minister; and Julio Soberón of the Central Bank. Raúl’s daughter, Mariela Castro, has also been mentioned as a future leader. All have been active in the government and have their own supporters. The serious maneuvering will now begin among them. The one certain thing is that the military is the main actor. It holds the monopoly on violence and controls the heights of the economy, especially tourism and transportation. Raúl has moved military officers into many influential positions within the government, and they will not abandon these positions quickly or easily.

What is the way ahead for the United States? Is it time to open relations with Cuba? What about relations with the Cuban military? What do we do with the embargo? The U.S. long-term goal is a stable, democratic Cuba integrated into the global market economy. The path to this goal is not evident. However, to achieve the goal, clearly we must be able to influence the Cuban government and people. Many aspects of our relations are not within the purview of the Executive Branch. The Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity or Libertad Act (also known as the Helms-Burton Act) of 1995 tightens the embargo and limits the President’s ability to change our posture towards Cuba. The May 2004 and July 2006 reports of The Commission to Assist a Free Cuba (CAFC) provide some recommendations, specifically discussing the roles of the post-Fidel military. The various sections of the Executive Branch should conceptualize engaging the Cuban government and the FAR within the law. We cannot achieve our goals without engaging them and communicating very clearly in a nonthreatening manner the standard of behavior for Western Hemisphere governments and militaries. That standard is a neutral, apolitical military supporting a democratic government that respects human rights and is integrated into the global political and economic system. Without engaging Cuba, the current situation will continue: a Cuba that does not cleave to hemispheric and international norms, together with a United States that cannot even inform the debate, much less shape it.

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Economist Intelligence Unit’s briefing on Cuba’s political state:

With Raúl Castro as president, expect little change in Cuba

The selection of Raúl Castro to succeed his brother, Fidel (81), as official president of Cuba confirms that the country is not in for substantive change, not even of the generational kind. Though it was widely believed that the younger brother (76) would rise to the presidency after Fidel’s retirement (announced on February 19th), there was a chance that the National Assembly would pass the reins of power to one of the so-called middle generation of leaders now in their fifties. This did not happen on February 24th, when that body anointed Raúl.

This is the first formal transition of power since the Cuban Revolution of 1959, and for that reason alone it is a milestone. Raúl, however, was already leading the country in his capacity as first vice-president and interim president since July 2006, when Fidel fell ill. Via the Communist Party newspaper, Fidel declared earlier in February that he would neither seek nor accept the presidency when the country’s National Assembly voted on February 24th. He said that his physical condition meant he could no longer fulfil his duties properly.

Not only did the National Assembly not pick a much younger man as president (a possible choice might have been Carlos Lage Dávila, one of six vice-presidents and de facto prime minister). It also selected as first vice-president, and next in the line of succession, José Ramón Ventura, at 77 even older than Raúl. A veteran of the 1959 Revolution, Mr Ventura has most recently served as organisational secretary of the Communist Party and member of its politburo.

Stability expected

With Raúl at the helm, there will be no major shift in Cuba’s political or economic model. Indeed, the new president has indicated that there are no plans to reform the one-party political system. And he has said he will consult with his older brother on all major decisions. Nor is any social upheaval expected.

However, this does not mean that there will be no evolution at all. Raúl has allowed, indeed has promoted, greater scope for criticism, dissent and open debate. Once considered a hardline communist and an enforcer, after assuming the role of acting president he launched a broad national discussion at all levels and has sought to strengthen institutions. The process of debate has continued in recent months in meetings and the state-controlled media, alongside the preparations for the National Assembly elections.

Although not much has come of it so far, the debate has raised expectations that reforms and improvements in living standards are in the pipeline. The areas of discussion have ranged widely, and include criticism of problems in the health service and calls for more private ownership in agriculture.

The government is not expected to make any sudden changes in the overall economic policy stance in the year ahead. However, adjustments in some areas, including price reforms, and liberalisation in food production and distribution, are likely to emerge from the discussion of economic efficiency and living standards. On the other hand, progress in improving the efficiency of economic management will be constrained by conservatism, price distortions and the government’s commitment to full employment. Certainly, full market liberalisation of the type envisaged in the “transition” economies of the former Soviet bloc is not on the agenda.

Still, given Raúl’s own advanced age, speculation will continue as to what might come next, say in five year’s time when the new president’s term ends and he might not seek another. By then the balance of power between the older revolutionaries and the younger leaders may well have changed, raising the possibility of a truer transition to a post-Castro era.

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The drama that has be faced Cuba’s political stage for the last half century comes to end, or has it? 

At 3:00 AM ET, Granma (Cuban Communist Party’s official paper), published Fidel Castro’s message announcing his retirement. 

He states:

The moment has come to nominate and elect the State Council, its President, its Vice-Presidents and Secretary.

[…]

To my dearest compatriots, who have recently honored me so much by electing me a member of the Parliament where so many agreements should be adopted of utmost importance to the destiny of our Revolution, I am saying that I will neither aspire to nor accept, I repeat, I will neither aspire to nor accept the positions of President of the State Council and Commander in Chief.

Fidel’s historic announcement, symbolically officiates and closes the chapter of succession that began shortly after his provisional resignation, on July 31, 2006  to the position of President of the State Council, which he left to his brother Defense Minister and First Vice-President Raul Castro Ruz.

Might we see Army General Raul Castro as Secretary of the Cuban Communist Party and Commander-in-Chief,  Army Corps General Alvaro Lopez Miera as Defence Minister, Carlos Lage as President of the State Council and a new President of the National Assembly once the outcome is known of Cuba’s national Assembly’s “general election” which will be held on Sunday, February 24? 

The political status quo remains in Cuba in the short-term, however, it remains to be seen what the political landscape will look like in a long-term period.

News coverage of the announcement:  BBC,  New York Times, Reuters, Miami Herald, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, AP, USA Today, ABC, El Pais

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• Cuba will liberate 7 dissidents according to Spanish Foreign Minister.
• Equatorial Guinea’s President visits Cuba.
• Apathy and resignation weighs on “presidential” decision in Cuba.
• BBC Mundo correspondent in Havana launches blog. [H/T: Penultimos Dias]
• Cuba: The change that never comes. (In Spanish) [H/T: La Nueva Cuba]

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Marc Frank of the Financial Times summarizes the current state of Cuba’s “electroral” politics and speculation on Fidel Castro’s future.

In an indication that it is not yet time to count Fidel Castro out of Cuban politics, the increasingly frail 81-year-old leader of the Cuban revolution will contest for a seat in the National Assembly in the parliamentary election this weekend.

The election - in which Cubans vote on candidates who have been selected by the ruling Communist party - kicks off a two-month process that will eventually lead to the selection of a president, vice-president and executive bodies for new five-year terms.

It is expected to clarify the future role of Mr Castro, who temporarily handed over his executive responsibilities to his younger brother Raúl after undergoing abdominal surgery 17 months ago.

Mr Castro, who has undergone at least three major operations and has only been seen in edited videos and pictures since July 2006, needs to win a seat if he is to continue playing a senior role in Cuba’s government. The assembly of 614 parliamentarians chooses a 31-member council of state, as well as a vice-president and president from among its own number.

Mr Castro recently contributed to speculation that he may be preparing to formally abandon posts. In a letter sent to a Cuban television programme at the end of last year, he said that “my primary duty is not to cling to any position, and even less to obstruct the rise of younger persons”.

But just days later, Raúl Castro appeared to suggest his older brother may still be able to play an important executive role. “Fidel has . . . full use of his mental faculties with some small physical limitations,” the country’s acting president said as he toured the electoral district in the eastern city of Santiago where Mr Castro is a candidate to become a deputy.

Raúl said his brother was consulted on major decisions and exercised two hours a day. “He has recovered quite a lot of weight and muscular mass . . . for this, all party delegates support him running again (for the national assembly),” he said.

Mr Castro’s convalescence and activities since he temporarily ceded power to Raúl have been shrouded in extraordinary secrecy.

“They are in guerrilla mode and anything is possible,” a western diplomat said. “Do not expect an answer to the retirement question until the last moment,” he added.

Even veteran Communist party members are uncertain what will happen. “I think Fidel will step down and continue to guide us from another position. We have gotten through these difficult moments remarkably well, why would we now go backward?” Yolanda Rodriguez, a former member of the national assembly, said.

Another veteran of the revolution’s early days, who does not want to be named, said Mr Castro would never be replaced as head of state as long as the United States demanded it.

Speculation as to who might replace Mr Castro centres on Raúl, 76, though there are some people who believe both Castros might step aside, with vice-president Carlos Lage, 56, who already functions much like a prime minister, the apparent favourite to assume the presidency or to become first vice-president behind Raúl.

Even if Mr Castro does step down as president, few believe he’ll go off and meditate in the mountains. “Will he really be announcing his retirement? Of course not,” says Domingo Amuchastegui, a former Cuban intelligence officer who defected in the 1990s and now lives in Florida.

He said: “Any serious approach to his personality confirms that he is a man ready to die with his boots on, until the limits of his physical and intellectual abilities.”

Other analysts suggest even a formal relinquishing of power will be a watershed in Cuba history.

“For the first time in 50 years, Cuba would have a new head of state,” said Julia Sweig, director of Latin America studies at the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations.

She said: “It would signal in Cuba a new era might be dawning and be huge news in Washington. Until the real funeral it will be as close as we will come to an opportunity to move the policy debate forward.”

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Diario Granma (Cuban Communist Party’s official newspaper) published an article last Friday concerning the generational shift, as per the Cuban Government’s view, in the parliamentary body (National Assembly of the People’s Power) wherein the Communist Party is the only political actor designated to participate in the upcoming January 20th parliamentary election.

Interesting statistics of note:

• Of the 614 candidates for the parliament, 374 (60.91 percent) were born after the triumph of the revolution in 1959. Another 134 (21.82 percent) were under the age of ten. Only 106 candidates (17.25 percent) knew capitalism in Cuba, that is to say, those who were part of the generation that defeated the Batista dictatorship and began building socialism.

• In terms of continuity and renewal, 36.78 percent of the candidates (224) are incumbents in the current 609 member legislature. Therefore, a little over 63.22 percent (385 legislators) will be newcomers in the new legislature of 614 members with the additional 5 members reflecting population growth.

• 42.16 percent of the candidates (265) are women and a majority (481) of the candidates have a university level education (78.34 percent) and 127 (20.68) with high school and/or technical degrees.

Delegates of the Municipal Assemblies of Santiago de Cuba and Segundo Frente approved on December 3 the candidacy of Maximum Fidel Castro, Army General Raúl Castro and Commander of the Revolution Juan Almeida as candidates to the Cuban National Parliament.

On December 27, Fidel Castro sent a message to the National Assembly signaling a possible relinquishment of power.  In his letter, he stated:

“What the international press has emphasized most in its reports on Cuba in recent days is the statement I made on the 17th of this month, in a letter to the director of Cuban television’s Round Table program, where I said that I am not clinging to power. I could add that for some time I did, due to my youth and lack of awareness, when, without any guidance, I started to leave my political ignorance behind and became a utopian socialist. It was a stage in my life when I believed I knew what had to be done and wanted to be in a position to do it! What made me change? Life did, delving more deeply into Martí’s ideas and those of the classics of socialism. The more deeply I became involved in the struggle, the stronger was my identification with those aims and, well before the revolutionary victory I was already convinced that it was my duty to fight for these aims or to die in combat.”

As the Maximum Leader’s designated successor, Army General Raul Castro might be elected to succeed Fidel Castro as President of the Council of State and  Council of Minister, however, Fidel may assume the symbolic post of titular head of government.

One political figure whose ascendancy is evident is Carlos Lage.  Will his ascendancy bring the technocrats to shared power with the prevalent political force: the military?

It remains to be seen, but if change is not in the horizon ,vis-à-vis a political and economic aperture, then what looms for the status quo regime is instability and a serious threat to its sustained power.

(H/T: Cuaderno de Cuba)

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Army General and interim president Raúl Castro presided over the legislative session of the National Assembly, which began today. Beginning in 2008, Cuba will have a new national assembly whereby deputies of the parliament and provincial delegates will be “elected.”

[Photo: AP]

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