Stratfor provides analysis about the current strategic issue in the Western Hemisphere and poses the question: what about subs instead of planes in Cuba?

Summary

With rumors flying (along with subsequent denials) about the potential stationing of Russian military aircraft in Cuba, there is another possibility: the stationing of Russian submarines. It would be a Cold War redux — and an effective way for Russia and the United States to hone their submarine and anti-submarine tactics.

Analysis

During the Cold War — even after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 — Cuba offered an important port for Soviet submarine operations along the U.S. eastern seaboard. Though the rumor mill this week has concentrated on Cuba as a potential refueling base for Russian aircraft — one with no munitions — there is another (unmentioned) possibility worth considering: What about the return of Russian submarines?

U.S. submarine operations in the Barents Sea enjoy not only the use of nearby ports in NATO countries but also rotations facilitated by a fleet of some 50 attack submarines. Russia’s submarine fleet is doctrinally inclined more toward surge deployments in times of crisis than the sustained global presence that the U.S. Navy has been perfecting since World War II. Though Russian subs could lurk in Atlantic waters close to Washington, Russian crews are neither accustomed to nor drilled in such lengthy deployments.

In addition, given the neglect of the 1990s on Russia’s fleet — subsequent maintenance and upgrades aside — reliability remains a concern, and lengthy Russian deployments leave subs much farther from friendly ports than do lengthy deployments of the U.S. fleet.

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Assessment

The collapse of the Soviet Union has deprived the Cuban Army of its major economic and logistic support, and has had a significant impact on equipment numbers and serviceability. The army remains well trained and professional in nature, and is likely to have adopted previous doctrine to take into account the current shortcomings in the quality and quantity of equipment held.  While the lack of replacement parts for its existing equipment and the current severe shortage of fuel have increasingly affected its operational capability and may continue to do so on some scale, Cuba remains able to offer considerable resistance to any regional power, including the United States. The international political environment, the country’s economic plight and Castro’s own conclusions about his Cold War interventions abroad, have limited Cuba’s efforts to export Marxist revolution. A new relationship with oil rich Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has translated into a recent boost in operational readiness, mainly due to oil credits and donations. So far this has not translated into a formal re-surge in Cuban military prowess, but Cuban instructors and doctrine is bound to penetrate the new ALBA member’s armed forces (Venezuela, Nicaragua and Bolivia). However, most of Cuba’s foreign serving personnel are doctors.  As in other Latin American countries, the army is the dominant service even though the FAR suffers from less interservice rivalry than most armed services in the region. There are three major geographical commands: Cuantos, Comandos, and Geográficos. Each command is designed to be a self-sufficient entity for operational.

Deployments, tasks and operations

The defined role of the FAR is to defend the Revolution from internal and external enemies and this has in the past included giving material assistance to friendly governments in the furtherance of Marxist-Leninist ideals. Today, the only realistic objective of the FAR is the defence of Cuban territory.

Source: Jane’s World Armies

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Pinar del Rio

• PEDRO MIGUEL PÉREZ BETANCOURT (Chief, Navy)

Habana

• DELSA ESTHER PUEBLA VILTRE (Chief, Office of Combatant Care)
• CLARIBEL AGUILAR RODRÍGUEZ (Captain, Ministry of Interior (MININT)
• DAYMARA ILEANA AGUILAR SEVILLANO (Instructor, Political Directorate - Ministry of Interior (MININT)
• REINALDO ROMERO PÉREZ (Officer, Personal Security - Ministry of Interior (MININT)
• RAMÓN PARDO GUERRA (Chief, General Staff, National Civil Defense)
• CARLOS LIRANZA GARCÍA (Specialist, Military Industries Union)
• LEOPOLDO CINTRA FRÍAS (Chief, Western Army)

Matanzas

• JOAQUÍN DE LAS MERCEDES QUINTAS SOLÁS (Chief, Central Army)
• ÁLVARO LÓPEZ MIERA (Chief, General Staff and Vice-Minister - FAR)
• JULIO CÉSAR GANDARILLA BERMEJO (Chief, Military Counter-Intelligence)
• ERNESTO RUIZ RAMOS (Chief, General Staff - Military Sector)

Villa Clara

• JULIO CASAS REGUEIRO (First-Vice Minister - FAR)
• JOSÉ ANTONIO ALONSO MONTERREY (Chief, FAR Enterprise System - Party Politics Department)

Ciego de Avila

• REINA LUCÍA BLANCO BÁEZ (Chief, Cadres and Personnel - Military Counter-Intelligence)

Camaguey

• ENRIQUE CARMELO PÉREZ MEDINA (Chief, Youth Direction - Ministry of Interior (MININT)

Las Tunas

• JUAN RAFAEL RUIZ PÉREZ (Chief, Direction - MINFAR)

Holguin

• CARLOS FERNÁNDEZ GONDÍN (First Vice-Minister - Ministry of Interior (MININT)
• RUBÉN MARTÍNEZ PUENTE (Director, Agricultural Military Union - MINFAR)
• JORGE LUIS GUERRERO ALMAGUER (Chief, Cadre Direction - MINFAR)
• RAMÓN ESPINOSA MARTÍN (Chief, Eastern Army)
• WALTER JOSÉ SANTANA HABER (Cadre, Ministry of Interior (MININT)

Granma

• FRANCY REBECA GARCÉS GARCÍA (Official, Ministry of Interior (MININT)
• LEONARDO RAMÓN ANDOLLO VALDÉS (Second Chief, General Staff - FAR)
• LEONARDO TAMAYO NÚÑEZ (Association of Cuban Revolution Combatants)
• ANTONIO ENRIQUE LUSSÓN BATLLE (Chief, Special Forces - FAR)
• ONELIO MARIANO AGUILERA BERMÚDEZ (Chief, General Staff - Eastern Army)

Guantanamo

• CLARO ORLANDO ALMAGUEL VIDAL (Chief, Logistics - FAR)
• ARMANDO ENRIQUE GARCÍA BATISTA (Chief, Political Section - Eastern Army)

Source: National Assembly of the People’s Power

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