Stratfor provides analysis about the current strategic issue in the Western Hemisphere and poses the question: what about subs instead of planes in Cuba?

Summary

With rumors flying (along with subsequent denials) about the potential stationing of Russian military aircraft in Cuba, there is another possibility: the stationing of Russian submarines. It would be a Cold War redux — and an effective way for Russia and the United States to hone their submarine and anti-submarine tactics.

Analysis

During the Cold War — even after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 — Cuba offered an important port for Soviet submarine operations along the U.S. eastern seaboard. Though the rumor mill this week has concentrated on Cuba as a potential refueling base for Russian aircraft — one with no munitions — there is another (unmentioned) possibility worth considering: What about the return of Russian submarines?

U.S. submarine operations in the Barents Sea enjoy not only the use of nearby ports in NATO countries but also rotations facilitated by a fleet of some 50 attack submarines. Russia’s submarine fleet is doctrinally inclined more toward surge deployments in times of crisis than the sustained global presence that the U.S. Navy has been perfecting since World War II. Though Russian subs could lurk in Atlantic waters close to Washington, Russian crews are neither accustomed to nor drilled in such lengthy deployments.

In addition, given the neglect of the 1990s on Russia’s fleet — subsequent maintenance and upgrades aside — reliability remains a concern, and lengthy Russian deployments leave subs much farther from friendly ports than do lengthy deployments of the U.S. fleet.

[Read more →]

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via Bloomberg:

Russia may send military aircraft back to bases in Cuba in response to U.S. plans to deploy elements of a missile defense system in Europe, Izvestiya reported, citing an unidentified “highly placed source.”

Both the supersonic Tu-160, a nuclear bomber known as “White Swan,” and the strategic bomber Tu-95, known to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as the “Bear,” are capable of flying as far as Cuba, the paper said.

“There are such discussions, but they’re only discussions,” the paper cited a “highly placed” source on the staff of Russia’s long-distance strategic aviation command as saying. “I’m not going to say that there’s nothing behind” the talks.

Russian military-transport aircraft regularly fly to Cuba, the paper said, carrying out orders for private companies.

The European antiballistic-missile shield system consists of a radar system in Czech republic (agreement signed July 8th) and missile-interceptor bases in Poland.

In addition, the Izvestiya article further adds:

• A senior source in the strategic long-distance aviation headquarters said such talk is only talk;
• Russia is currently negotiating with Cuba to supply the island with Russian-made aircraft (2 Il-96 aircraft and 4 TU-204: 2 passenger and cargo 2);
• Infrastructure of the Port of Mariel is quite old, but still able to take ships.
• In the province of Pinar del Rio, where former Soviet troops were deployed — the military can be re-deployed there.
• Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, former Chief of Defense for International Cooperation and President of the Academy on Geopolitical Affairs stated: “I wouldn’t say Russian aircraft need Cuba as a permanent home. I know that strategic aviation airplanes were intermediate, landing at airfields in Cape Verde. For such a goal, Cuba can be used again, not as a permanent home - there’s no need for it - but as airfields and air refueling.”
• Ivashov further went on to say that Cuba would not object to expanding Lourdes base for radio intelligence or something else.

Click here to read the Izvestiya article.

[Photo of Tu-160 and Tu-95: Izvestiya]

Update 13:43 EDT: Russian Defence Ministry officials on Monday poured cold water on a newspaper report that suggested Moscow could use Cuba as a refuelling base for nuclear-capable bombers, Reuters reports.

Update July 22, 16:12 EDT: via Reuters: Russia would cross “a red line for the United States of America” if it were to base nuclear capable bombers in Cuba, a top US air force officer warned on Tuesday. “If they did I think we should stand strong and indicate that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line for the United States of America,” said General Norton Schwartz, nominated to be the air force’s chief of staff.

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