Stratfor provides analysis about the current strategic issue in the Western Hemisphere and poses the question: what about subs instead of planes in Cuba?

Summary

With rumors flying (along with subsequent denials) about the potential stationing of Russian military aircraft in Cuba, there is another possibility: the stationing of Russian submarines. It would be a Cold War redux — and an effective way for Russia and the United States to hone their submarine and anti-submarine tactics.

Analysis

During the Cold War — even after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 — Cuba offered an important port for Soviet submarine operations along the U.S. eastern seaboard. Though the rumor mill this week has concentrated on Cuba as a potential refueling base for Russian aircraft — one with no munitions — there is another (unmentioned) possibility worth considering: What about the return of Russian submarines?

U.S. submarine operations in the Barents Sea enjoy not only the use of nearby ports in NATO countries but also rotations facilitated by a fleet of some 50 attack submarines. Russia’s submarine fleet is doctrinally inclined more toward surge deployments in times of crisis than the sustained global presence that the U.S. Navy has been perfecting since World War II. Though Russian subs could lurk in Atlantic waters close to Washington, Russian crews are neither accustomed to nor drilled in such lengthy deployments.

In addition, given the neglect of the 1990s on Russia’s fleet — subsequent maintenance and upgrades aside — reliability remains a concern, and lengthy Russian deployments leave subs much farther from friendly ports than do lengthy deployments of the U.S. fleet.

[Read more →]

Related posts

• Return of Russian military aircraft in Cuba (0)
• Cuba’s emerging leverage (0)
• Russia, Cuba and Latin America (0)
• Russia Should Restore Its Positions in Cuba (0)
• Russia & Cuba: Agreements on Airplane Sales, Pharmaceuticals (0)

Via BBC Monitoring - Former Soviet Union:

Russian experts think that the reaction of Gen Norton Schwartz, [nominated to be] the chief of staff of the US Air Force, to potential appearance of Russian strategic bombers in Cuba was “inappropriate”.

“Russian strategic bombers have the right to use airfields in any country, including Cuba, if the leadership of that country does not object. Therefore, Gen Schwarz’ statement can only be described as inappropriate and childish,” Anatoliy Kornukov, former commander-in- chief of the Air-Force, told Interfax AVN on Wednesday [23 July].

“As a professional, Gen Schwartz should also know that missile carriers have the right to fly over neutral waters, in any region of the world, which is what American bombers do, by the way,” he said.

Related posts

• Crazy Ivans in Cuban waters (0)