Walter Molano (head of research at BCP Securities) wrote the following article published by Latin Business Chronicle which points to the winners and losers in Latin America affected by the US election in November.

The impact on Latin America of US presidential elections and the global credit crunch.

The outcome of the U.S. presidential election has important implications for Latin America. There will be winners and losers, depending on who wins the White House.

Mexico and Colombia will be the obvious winners if Senator McCain wins. With a well-articulated immigration plan and a willingness to step up the so-called war against drugs, Mexico will receive greater attention from Washington. The same goes for Colombia. The Arizona Senator’s willingness to visit Colombia in the midst of his electoral campaign was a clear sign of support for the Andean nation. A McCain presidency would work hard to ensure the ratification of the Free Trade Agreement, as well as a follow-on supplement to Plan Colombia.

Not surprisingly, the list of winners and losers will invert if Senator Obama wins the White House. Cuba will probably be one of the biggest winners, given that the Illinois Senator favors re-establishing a dialogue with the Caribbean renegade. A more favorable relationship with Cuba would imply closer ties to its allies, namely Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia. [Read more →]

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Tags: andean nation, Bolivia, Caribbean, Colombia, current account balances, current account deficit, Ecuador, electoral campaign, Europe, free trade agreement, gdp growth rate, global credit crunch, immigration plan, inflation forecasts, Latin America, Mexico, presidential elections, senator mccain, senator obama

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