An October photo of a frail Fidel Castro with Ministrel Kirill (Russian Orthodox Church). Image: mospat.ru

Fernando Ravsberg of the BBC writes from Havana about the debate going on in the streets of the capital. Many are asking themselves if there is a paralysis in the reforms started by Raúl Castro and whom is influencing the constrainment of the process begun in February.

Some within and outside the country opine that it is Fidel Castro himself, whose health has improved, is retaking the reins of the country, logically returning to the policies he applied during his half-century ruling Cuba.

Others affirm it is the most orthodox sector of the Communist Party (PCC) who are impeding the changes initiated by Raúl Castro and unstoppable if they acquire majority support of the militant base in the Communist Party Congress.

Communist militants have told the BBC preparations have not been initiated for the Congress of the Cuban Communist Party (PCC) scheduled for 2009, where the definitive path of the country will be decided.

Government officials have assured it had to due with the US elections and the Cuban Government was waiting for the results to begin moving its own pieces on the board.  Soon a difference will be noticed.

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If proven true, U.S. foreign policy toward Cuba will change dramatically with the next presidential administration on the prospect of a viable strategic source of oil in close proximity to U.S. shores.

Via BBC:

The state-owned Cuban oil company says the country may have more than 20bn barrels of oil in its offshore fields - more than double the previous estimate.

Cubapetroleo’s exploration manager said drilling in the offshore wells would begin as early as the middle of 2009.

Such reserves would place Cuba among the top 20 oil producing nations.

Cubapetroleo’s estimates are based on comparisons to known oil reserves found within similar geological structures off the coasts of the US and Mexico.

The company said Cuba had undersea geology “very similar” to that surrounding Mexico’s giant Cantarell and Poza Rica oil fields in the Bay of Campeche.

‘More data’

Cuba’s share of the Gulf of Mexico was established in 1977, when it signed treaties with the US and Mexico.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) recently estimated that as much as 9bn barrels of oil and 21 trillion cubic feet of natural gas could lie within that zone, in the North Cuba Basin.

However, Cubapetroleo exploration manager Rafael Tenreyro Perez said his company’s estimate was higher because it had better information about Cuba’s offshore geology.

“I’m almost certain that if [USGS officials] ask for all the data we have, their estimate is going to grow considerably,” he told a news conference in the capital, Havana.

If correct, Cuba’s oil reserves would be almost the same as those of the US - 21bn barrels, according to the Oil & Gas Journal - and nearly twice the size of Mexico’s - 11.7bn barrels.

It could generate unprecedented wealth for the Communist-run state.

Mr Tenreyro said he expected the first production well to be drilled before the middle of next year by a consortium led by the Spanish oil company, Repsol, and that more wells could be started before 2010.

Cuba currently produces 60,000 barrels of oil a day.

It depends on Venezuela for an additional 93,000 barrels a day, which it receives at preferential rates in exchange for the services of thousands of Cuban doctors working in Venezuela.

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Glonass satellite system. (Illustration: Ria Novosti.)

Via Space Daily:

Russia could include Cuba and Venezuela into a satellite navigation system originally designed for missile targeting by the Soviet military, the head of Russia’s space agency said Wednesday.

“We discussed the theme of joint use of the Glonass satellite navigation system,” Roskosmos chief Anatoly Perminov was quoted by RIA Novosti news agency as saying, referring to talks with the authorities in Venezuela.

Perminov said similar negotiations had been held with Cuban authorities and that Moscow and Havana had talked “in a preliminary way about the possibility of building a space centre in Cuba with our assistance,” RIA Novosti reported.

Glonass was developed for missile targeting by the Soviet army in the 1980s to compete with the GPS system used by the United States. The project is expected to be completed, with 24 satellites in orbit, by 2009.

Glonass is currently administered by the Russian defence ministry.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin last week boosted financing for the long-delayed project by 1.85 billion euros (2.61 billion dollars). Glonass also aims to compete with the European Union’s Galileo system.

Russia has boosted military cooperation with Venezuela in recent months, reviving memories of tensions between the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War in the Caribbean region.

In a move seen as a direct response to US plans to set up missile defence installations in the Czech Republic and Poland, Russia this month announced it was dispatching warships and long-range bombers to Venezuela for exercises

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Via Sunday Herald:

THE SCOTTISH historian Niall Ferguson has warned that the strategic alliance between China and Russia is more of a threat to the West than the credit crunch.

Ferguson, a best-selling author, broadcaster and professor of history at Harvard University, said that the development of the new Russia-China powerblock was set to put the two economic heavyweights on a path to confrontation with much of the rest of the world.

Speaking at Making Sense Of The Future, a conference organised by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland (ICAS) at Gleneagles, Ferguson also warned that unless Iran suspends its nuclear weapons programme a full-scale war in the Middle East is inevitable.

“I believe that Russia’s prime minister Vladimir Putin is about to have his Molotov-Ribbentrop moment,” said Ferguson, referring to the pre-second world war non-aggression pact between Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia. “He’s going to realise that Moscow and Beijing can have a new and meaningful partnership.”

Ferguson also warned that the West had to sit up and take notice of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation. The SCO was officially founded in 2001 as a counterpart to Nato and the European Union. Aside from China and Russia its members are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Ferguson said that the SCO had sneaked “under the radar” of the West, and its activities should be carefully monitored. [Read more →]

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